EUR/NZD analysis for February 15, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.6756 in a high volume. In the daily time frame, I found large weakness and supply overcoming demand. In the 4-hour time frame, I found the strong resistance level of 1.7200 coupled with strong rejection. So, be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support level (take profit levels). I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the level of 1.6750 (currently on the test), Fibonacci expansion 100% at the level of 1.6460, and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the level of 1.5985.Watch for potential selling opportunities on rallies.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.7035

R2: 1.7090

R3: 1.7180

Support levels:

S1: 1.6840

S2: 1.6780

S3: 1.6680

Trading recommendations:A a spike in an ultra-high volume (potential buying climax) is seen in the market. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD and watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Gold analysis for February 15, 2016

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,207.40 in a very high volume. The metal reached our second short-term target at $1,232.00. A strong upward bar in an ultra-high volume (buying climax) is seen in the daily time frame. Professional sellers used this massive buying climax to sell gold near the level of $1,263.00. Weakness appears on upbars. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of $1,181.00 and Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the level of $1,131.00. The level of $1,198.00 should provide strong support.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,235.35

R2: 1,236.40

R3: 1,238.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,231.90

S2: 1,230.80

S3: 1,129.15

Trading recommendations: Sellers are in control and buying looks very risky. Watch for potential selling opportunities on rallies

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 15, 2016

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A daily closure below 0.6750 allowed a quick bearish decline to occur towards the level of 0.6500 that was broken to the downside as well.

However, the levels of 0.6400-0.6350 constituted a significant support zone. Hence, a strong bullish rejection was expressed on January 20 (inverted head and shoulders pattern).

Since January 26, bullish persistence above 0.6500 was mandatory to keep pushing the NZD/USD pair towards higher bullish targets.

However, a temporary bearish rejection has been expressed around 0.6550 for almost two weeks resulting in a depicted consolidation range.

On January 28, the depicted support level of 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 has been executed earlier last week.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The area of 0.6700-0.6750 remains a significant resistance zone to be watched for valid sell entries. Recent signs of a bearish rejection were seen during last week's consolidations near the same zone.

On Friday, the price failed to consolidate below 0.6570, that is why another bullish pullback is currently moving towards 0.6700. A bearish rejection and a valid sell entry should be expected this time as well.

On the other hand, the nearest support zone for the NZD/USD pair is located at 0.6540-0.6500 where the price reaction should be watched for a possible buy entry.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 15, 2016

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A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence, another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence, a bullish visit to the resistance level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was executed.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The recent bullish recovery was manifested around the level of 1.3750. That is why the current bullish pullback is taking place towards 1.4000 again.

The level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) remains a significant key level to be watched for price reactions. It may offer a valid sell entry on the current bullish pullback, which is taking place this week.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3370-1.3400 remains a significant support zone to be watched for a valid buy entry if enough bearish momentum is maintained below the prominent weekly support (1.4000).

Trading recommendations:

A valid sell entry can be offered in the area around 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) if the current bullish pullback continues above 1.4000. S/L should be set as a daily closure above 1.4150.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the zone of 1.3370-1.3400 for a valid buy entry. S/L should be located below 1.3320.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 15, 2016

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In June 2015, the pair pushed above the depicted level of 1.5550 trying to reach the zone of 1.5900 where the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was formed.

In November 2015, a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick closed below the level of 1.5200 (the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern). This enhanced the bearish side of the market in the long term.

Extensive bearish pressure has been applied against the demand levels of 1.4620 and 1.4360. Both of them were broken to the downside.

Shortly after the GBP/USD pair moved below 1.4220, evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around 1.4075. Hence, the previous few weekly candlesticks closed again above 1.4220 and 1.4360 indicating strong bullish demand.

Bullish persistence above 1.4360 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target was seen at 1.4615.

Any signs of a bearish rejection around 1.4615 should be taken into consideration as it corresponds to a broken weekly demand level, which is acting as a strong supply level now.

On the other hand, the zone of 1.4360-1.4220 remains a significant demand zone for the GBP/USD pair.

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold as it moved further below the prominent demand levels of 1.4620 and 1.4360.

Bullish persistence above 1.4360 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target around 1.4615 was already reached.

On February 4, the market failed to close above 1.4615. Instead of it, an inverted hammer daily candlestick was expressed. Hence, a bearish pullback took place towards 1.4360.

On February 8, the market expressed considerable bullish rejection around 1.4360.

This led to a quick bullish swing towards 1.4570 where recent bearish pressure was applied. Hence, another bearish pullback towards 1.4360 was performed last week.

Traders were advised take a valid bay entry at 1.4360 where the depicted daily uptrend came to meet the GBP/USD pair. S/L should be advanced to 1.4400 to secure some profits, while T/P levels remain located at 1.4500 and 1.4600.

Note that the GBP/USD pair remains trapped between 1.4615 and 1.4360 (the recent daily uptrend). A breakout in either direction should be expected.

On the other hand, conservative traders should watch for significant price reaction either at the supply level of 1.4600 or the demand level of 1.4360.

These levels are important key-levels that determine the next destination for the GBP/USD pair.

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Technical analysis of Silver for February 15, 2016.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is seen to be trading around $15.30 levels for now after printing lows at $15.20 today. The metal has bounced off the Fibonacci 0.786 levels, of the drop between $16.35 and $13.60 levels respectively. Please note that the metal is forming an evening star bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart view, indicating a potential reversal in a short term at least. However, bears need to break out $15.08 levels to confirm a deeper correction. Only a push above $16.35 levels would confirm the fact that silver has turned bullish on a long-term basis. Immediate support on a smaller time frame is at $15.00, while resistance is seen at $15.80.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now and be ready to go short if reversal confirms. (around $15.70/80)

Good luck!

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 15, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level of 1.0570, which was hit in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

The April candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected strong bearish rejection around the level of 1.1400.

December's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one allowing the current bullish pullback to take place towards 1.1370.

The zone of 1.1350-1.1400 remains a significant Supply Zone to be watched during the current bullish pullback. Bearish rejection should be anticipated.

On the other hand, the level of 0.9450 remains a long-term bearish target in case the current monthly candlestick closes below the depicted demand level of 1.0570.

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In October 2015, the Daily Supply Zone of 1.1360-1.1400 produced significant bearish pressure shortly after the EUR/USD pair spiked above the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

A bearish breakout of the depicted uptrend was performed later on October 23. This enhanced a long-term bearish scenario with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0600.

In November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (monthly demand level) where the current bullish swing was initiated.

During the past few weeks, the level of 1.1000 was providing a significant bearish rejection. Hence, a consolidation range extending between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart. On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range.

Hence, a quick bullish movement took place towards the zone of 1.1350-1.1450 where previous daily bottoms and the backside of the broken uptrend are depicted on the daily chart.

On Friday, a strong bearish daily candlestick was expressed by the end of the day. Quick bearish decline should be expected towards 1.1160 and 1.1100.

Trading Recommendations:

Traders were advised to sell the EUR/USD pair anywhere around the zone of 1.1350-1.1400. This position is already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 1.1300 to offset the associated risk.

On the other hand, a low-risky buy entry can be offered around the recently-broken consolidation range near 1.1000 if the current bearish pullback continues.

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Technical analysis of Gold for February 15, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading around $1,209.00/10.00 now after hitting highs around $1,263.00 last Friday. The yellow metal is trading around Fibonacci 0.618 support ($1,212.00) of a rally between $1,181.00 and $1,262.00. A drop below the levels of $1,080.00 would confirm that the yellow metal formed a meaningful top and should retrace lower towards $1,130.00 before rallying further. It is recommended to remain flat and wait for a confirmation to initiate short positions. Immediate interim resistance is seen at $1,245.00 followed by $1,262.00, while support is seen at $1,205.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat looking for an opportunity to go short.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for February 15, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading around 127.60 now, after hitting the level of 128.00 today. The pair has faced initial resistance at 128.00, which is also Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of a drop between the levels of 131.70 and 125.75. The pair might hit interim highs today and push lower from here. Immediate interim resistance is seen at 128.00, while resistance is at 126.30 followed by 125.75. It is hence recommended to initiate short positions with risk at the levels of 128.50. The pair is expected to head towards lower lows.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop is at 128.50, a target is below 125.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for February 15, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is trading around the level of 1.4233 now, looking for an opportunity to drop lower in a corrective manner before resuming its rally. Please note that the pair might hit an interim high of 1.4266 and looking for an opportunity to retrace lower to the level of 1.4050 before pushing higher again. It is hence recommended to initiate short positions with risk around 1.4290. Immediate interim resistance is seen at 1.4266, while support is seen at 1.3924. The pair had dropped lower towards 1.3921 earlier and bulls should remain poised to remain in control until prices stay above those levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop is at 1.4290, a target is at 1.4050. Then plan to turn long again.

Good luck!

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Global macro overview for 15/02/2016

Global macro overview for 15/02/2016:

More bad news came from China overnight where trade balance shrank significantly and exceeded economists' estimates in January. Exports dropped 11.2% to $177.5 billion vs 1.4% in December, while imports plummeted 18.8% to $114.2 billion vs 7.6% in December. Thus, the trade surplus has widened to $63.3 billion. The recent data has increased worries about China. The growth pace of the world's second biggest economy is slowing significantly. Importantly, Chinese economy grew at the slowest pace in 25 years last year, causing capital to flood out of China to the "safe heaven" markets (gold, US dollar, Swiss franc, Japanese yen).

Is the China slowdown the reason for gold to rally so fast in the recent month? Perhaps, market participants consider the gold market to be the safe heaven and this is why it is rising so fast. On the daily time frame technical chart of gold the V-shape formation can be clearly seen after the double bottom at $1046 has been established. After making the local top at $1263, the market is now trying to test the technical support at $1191. The down trend might have been terminated, but to confirm that, the bulls must break above the level of $1307 and head towards the level of $1345.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 15, 2016

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair has broken support at the level of 1.1239 which acts as a resistance now. According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1239 and 1.1101. Therefore, we expect a range of 138 pips in coming two days. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Hence, the price spot of 1.1239 remains a significant resistance zone. Consequently, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move downside. The structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.1239, sell below 1.1239 with the first target at 1.1101. Besides, the weekly support 1 is seen at the level of 1.1101. However, traders should watch for any sign of a bullish rejection that occurs around 1.1239. The level of 1.1239 coincides with 50% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as a major resistance today. Since the trend is below the 50% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend. Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario.

Weekly technical levels:

  • R3: 1.1681
  • R2: 1.1529
  • R1: 1.1391
  • PP: 1.1239
  • S1: 1.1101
  • S2: 1.0949
  • S3: 1.0811
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Global macro overview for 15/02/2016

Global macro overview for 15/02/2016:

The gross domestic product figures were delivered from Japan overnight. They were worse than anticipated. The forecast was around -0.3% q/q, but the indicator fell by 0.4% q/q. This reading was even lower than the previous GDP figures (0.3%) despite of more than three years of Abenomics programme aimed at improving the world's third biggest economy. The main drivers for this contraction was a decrease in consumer spending, weak domestic demand, and weal exports to emerging markets. It looks like Abe's stimulus programme has failed to encourage households to spend and the latest BoJ negative interest rate decision are almost desperate measures to stimulate the economy as volatile financial markets threatened its efforts to overcome deflation.

Let's take a look at the technical picture on the USD/JPY pair after the data was published. The price is trying to bounce from the support level of 110.98 in the daily chart and might even head higher towards the level of 115.95. As long as this level is not violated with a daily candle close above 116.00, the daily downtrend is still in play. Bears will remain in control until this level broken amid the temporary bullish reversal.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 15, 2016

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair was trading around the area of 1.4487 a week ago. Today, the level of 1.4487 represents a weekly pivot point in the H1 time frame. The pair has already formed minor resistance at 1.4578 and the strong resistance is seen at the level of 1.4607 because it represents the weekly resistance 1. So, major resistance is seen at 1.4607, while immediate support is found at 1.4478. If the pair closes below the weekly pivot point of 1.4478, the GBP/USD pair may resume it movement to 1.4379 to test the weekly support 1. From this point, we expect the GBP/USD pair to move between the levels of 1.4607 and 1.4379. Equally important, the RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market as well as the current price is also below the moving average 100. As a result, sell below the weekly pivot point of 1.4487 with targets at 1.4379 and 1.4350 in order to form a double bottom. Nevertheless, stop loss should always be taken into account, accordingly, it will be of beneficial to set the stop loss above the last bullish wave at the level of 1.4625.

Weekly technical levels:

  • R3: 1.4835
  • R2: 1.4706
  • R1: 1.4607
  • PP: 1.4478
  • S1: 1.4379
  • S2: 1.4250
  • S3: 1.4151
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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 15, 2016

General overview for 15/02/2016:

The current count still indicates a possible upward wave progression as a low for the wave B cycle seems to be in place. This would mean the market still needs to make one more wave to the upside, big-cycle wave C blue, to complete the bigger-time-frame corrective cycle. Nevertheless, to confirm this possibility, the market must start to break out above the intraday resistance at the level of 128.62, otherwise the odds for another downside wave will increase.

Support/Resistance:

125.02 - WS1

125.73 - Intraday Support

127.98 - Weekly Pivot

128.26 - Intraday Resistance

130.13 - WR1

133.09 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should refrain from trading and wait for a better trading setup to occur in the nearest term.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 15, 2016

General overview for 15/02/2016:

There are some indications that an impulsive wave to the upside could have started already, but the situation is still unclear as the corrective cycle might get more complex and time-consuming. Nevertheless, the first three waves of the corrective cycle, abc purple, had been made and the intraday support at 1.3782 seems to be the key level that should be watched currently. Any breakout below this level might extend the C purple wave down to the next support at 1.3637. On the other hand, to confirm the bullish progression to the upside, the price should break out above the golden trend line at least.

Support/Resistance:

1.3637 - Local Low

1.3648 - WS2

1.3746 - WS1

1.3782 - Intraday Support

1.3873 - Intraday Resistance

1.3880 - Weekly Pivot

1.3972 - WR1

1.4014 - Technical Resistance

1.4108 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Buy orders should be kept open with the same trade parameters: the SL should be placed at 1.3880 and the TP is still the same at 1.4102. Nevertheless, any breakout below the level of 1.3880 would create another opportunity to close buy orders and open sell orders with tight SL and TP at the level of 1.3782.

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