April 30, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

analytics5cc863577348c.jpg

Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23.

Currently, the price zone around 1.1235 has turned into supply-zone to be watched for bearish rejection.

Yesterday, a recent bullish head and shoulders pattern was being demonstrated around 1.1140 on the H4 chart.

That's why, conservative traders were suggested to wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.1230-1.1250 for a valid SELL entry.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders can have a valid SELL entry anywhere around 1.1230-1.1250.

S/L should be located above 1.1270.

Target levels to be located around 1.1170 and 1.1130.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: the euro continued to grow due to strong reports indicating the recovery of the eurozone economy

The euro was able to continue its upward correction in the first half of the day after a more than optimistic report on the growth of the eurozone economy in early 2019. Despite the uncertainty of global economic growth and the prospects for international trade, such indicators can return hope to traders to resume talks from the European Central Bank on raising interest rates in the Eurozone next year.

According to the EU Statistics Agency, the eurozone's GDP in the 1st quarter of this year grew by 1.5% on an annualized basis, after rising by 0.9% in the 4th quarter of 2018. Compared to the same period last year, eurozone GDP grew by 1.2% in the first quarter.

OBi4Vw5UhwEERt2sQIGz1-HvudLFtZTyUYpKGGqc

Traders also took a positive view of the unemployment report in the Eurozone, which in March this year fell to 7.7% against 7.8% in February. Economists had expected unemployment to remain unchanged.

A good contribution to the overall GDP growth was made by the French economy, which continued to grow steadily in the 1st quarter of 2019 due to the recovery of consumer spending.

According to the statistics agency Insee and the first preliminary estimate, France's GDP in the first quarter of this year grew by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter, which coincided with the forecasts of economists.

Inflation in France was worse than expected. Thus, the CPI consumer price index in April rose only by 0.2% compared to March, where the growth was recorded at 0.8%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the growth was 1.2%. Economists had expected growth of 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively. France's consumer price index, harmonized by EU standards, rose 1.4% per annum in April against 1.3% per annum in March.

Spain also saw economic growth in the 1st quarter of this year. According to the report, the preliminary GDP of Spain in the 1st quarter increased by 0.7% compared to the 4th quarter of 2018 and 2.4% compared to the 1st quarter of 2018. Inflation in Spain increased by 1.6% per annum in April, with a forecast of 1.5%.

Good support for the European currency was provided by reports on the German economy, which continues to recover after a period of recession, which almost led to a recession.

According to the data, consumer prices in Germany rose in April due to prices for energy carriers and services. The report of the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany indicated that the consumer price index, harmonized according to EU standards, rose by 1.0% in April compared with the previous month and 2.1% compared with the same period of the previous year. Economists had expected growth of 0.5% compared with the previous month and 1.6% compared with the same period of the previous year.

KPGxFQ4wME4NXQ0Fn7WAGaiP0B5L-P7b_eQxyARY

Consumer confidence in Germany is also stable in May. According to leading data from the research company GfK, the consumer confidence index in Germany in May was at the level of 10.4 points, remaining unchanged compared with April. Economists had expected the figure to decline and be equal to 10.3 points.

The Gfk noted that the main factors constraining confidence include the uncertain situation around Brexit, as well as the trade conflict with the United States.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the main focus of buyers will now be at the resistance level of 1.1240, above which it is unlikely to break through the first time. More acceptable areas for opening long positions in risky assets are reviewed after correction to the area of 1.1200 and 1.1180.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

April 30, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

analytics5cc85ec02df53.jpg

On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

On March 11, a weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted recent bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line demonstrated significant bearish rejection.

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900, 1.2800 and 1.2750 where the lower limit of the depicted channel comes again to meet the GBPUSD pair.

Yesterday, we expected a bullish pullback to occur towards the depicted supply zone 1.3000-1.3033 which constitutes a major resistance zone on the short-term.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can have a valid SELL entry anywhere around the current price levels (1.3020-1.3035).

TP levels to be located around 1.2950, 1.2905 and 1.2800 and S/L to be located above 1.3100.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. April 30th. The end of the month. The pound rose by 120 points but the overall picture remains the same

4-hour timeframe

QJS8quB8M-35GcAd7bTQGLfsx5vFKMMq5wNIf0As

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 91p - 76p - 51p - 69p - 42p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 66p (62p).

On Tuesday, April 30, the British pound continues its upward movement against the background of a small drop in demand for the US dollar. Or profit-taking on dollar positions at the end of the month. The Brexit theme frankly faded into the background. This is a good opportunity for the pound to roll back as much as possible up. Unfortunately, the downward trend persists in the GBP/USD pair. Thus, we expect a resumption of the downward movement sooner or later. To consider not only short-term purchases in small lots, but it will also be possible not earlier than the Bulls overcome the Ichimoku cloud. But even in this case, the growth potential of the British currency is not too great. The political crisis in the UK, the lack of a decision on Brexit, complete uncertainty with this very decision, as well as the future of Theresa May - it clearly does not benefit the British currency. Tomorrow will be an important day for the pair, as the outcome of the next Fed meeting will be known. The "pigeon" will be the comments of representatives of the regulator, the greater the chance for the pound to continue to grow. The rate is unlikely to be changed, so all the attention to the press conference.

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP/USD continues its upward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to consider long positions in small lots with targets at 1.2998 and 1.3055.

Short positions will become relevant only after the reverse consolidation of the price below the critical line with the target at 1.2845. Most likely, tomorrow the pair will determine the direction of movement for the next few days.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. April 30th. The end of the month. Eurozone GDP report helps the euro to recover against the dollar

4-hour timeframe

rgS8SqLYy5nhWH7cUS3G4TWpOE91ce6O2WW8IEhb

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 69p - 84p - 45p - 63p - 42p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 61p (58p).

The last trading day of the month ends with the strengthening of the European currency. Finally, the euro has waited for fundamental support. Although this is only one report, and it hardly means a serious change in the state of the EU economy for the better, nevertheless, it has supported the euro. The unemployment rate in March also pleased, as it dropped to 7.7%. Thus, the Foundation today is completely on the side of the euro. Unfortunately, the general trend is not in favor of the euro. In technical terms, it is possible to count on a more or less serious strengthening of the euro, not to mention a full-fledged upward trend, not before overcoming the Ichimoku cloud. Looking at the higher timeframe, a downward trend is clearly visible, which will not be very easy to break. The main factor not in favor of the euro is that the US monetary policy is much stronger than the European one, as well as the economy. Therefore, traders prefer long-term investment in the US economy rather than in Europe. Thus, we believe that in the medium term, the balance of forces between currencies will not change. Especially against the background of the growing trade war between the EU and the US.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move up and now buy orders with targets at 1.1234 and 1.1272 have become relevant, but with small lots, as the "Golden Cross" is rather weak.

It is recommended to consider sell orders in small lots in order to reach the level of 1.1082 not earlier than the reverse consolidation of the price below the critical line. In this case, the downward trend may resume.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Is it time to buy the euro?

_4r-LXOxSuWl5wEvS0t88gUv0p92q44R9_2oJVYc

Societe Generale experts believe that the time has come to buy the euro, as pessimism about the prospects of the European economy will gradually come to naught.

"Market sentiment towards the single European currency has improved significantly. It allows counting on the growth of the euro against the dollar to the level of $ 1.16," representatives of the financial institution said.

According to them, the determining factor for the EUR/USD pair now is not the difference in interest rates or government bond yields, but the expectation of economic growth.

"Last year, negative expectations led to a sharp decline in the euro. However, now these expectations are unjustified and it is time to rethink," the Societe Generale believes.

Today, the EUR/USD pair, noting weekly highs, rose above 1.12 against the background of strong Eurozone statistics.

68A5fioMmTFP4FKPYkFNr-1JTIsJHbiThB4VCBJ8

According to Eurostat, in the first quarter, the GDP of the currency bloc expanded by 1.2% in annual terms with a growth forecast of 1.1%. Compared to the fourth quarter, the indicator increased by 0.4%, while previously it was expected that the indicator will accelerate by 0.3%.

The data released today on unemployment in the eurozone also exceeded the expectations of experts. In March, the indicator fell to the lowest level since September 2008 and amounted to 7.7% against 7.8% in February. Analysts predicted that the indicator would remain unchanged.

Thus, the region's economy is still developing despite the pessimistic predictions of the ECB, but there are still few reasons for optimism, given the political risks associated with Brexit and the upcoming parliamentary elections in the EU.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: Data on eurozone GDP and inflation in Germany will set the direction of the market at the end of this month

The US dollar declined against the euro and the pound, despite the fact that American consumers continued to increase their spending in February and March of this year, which will favorably affect the pace of economic growth. The increase in spending is directly linked to household confidence in their economic prospects.

According to the US Department of Commerce, personal household spending rose 0.1% in February this year, while in March the growth was just a little bit below the level of 1.0% and amounted to 0.9% compared to the previous month. Let me remind you that the data for February were not published in March due to the suspension of government work earlier this year.

However, not everything is as good as it seems at first glance. Despite rising costs, Americans' personal incomes in March rose by only 0.1% compared with the previous month, after rising 0.2% in February. Weak income growth, along with low unemployment, could have a negative impact on sentiment in the future. Personal savings of Americans increased in February by 7.3% but decreased in March by 6.5%.

The price index for personal consumption expenditures in the US rose by 0.2% in March and by 1.5% compared to the same period in 2018.

The speech of the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, which took place on Monday evening, did not make serious changes in the market situation.

The head of the Ministry of Finance said that the Trump administration policy contributed to GDP growth of 3.2% in the first quarter of this year, and that strong growth in the US economy is expected to continue over the next year. Mnuchin also noted that the slowdown of the European economy will have a modest impact on the US economy, as a trade agreement with China may be concluded in the coming weeks.

The Minister of Finance also said in an interview that last week, there was a meeting with representatives of the Japanese authorities on trade issues. The White House wants Japanese markets to be open to American agricultural products. Most likely, another trade conflict is brewing, but much will depend on the reaction of the Japanese authorities.

dJhGYLWbXm10CLPsD5uAgnIFkg7wWV1781p1xhEC

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, further growth may be limited by the resistance of 1.1205 in the next few days. The bullish correction will continue only if there are good reports on inflation in Germany and GDP growth in the Eurozone in the 1st quarter of this year. The breakthrough of resistance 1.1205 will open a direct way to buyers of risky assets in the area of 1.1240 and 1.1280. If the data turns out to be worse than economists' forecasts, and it has been repeatedly said that the growth rate of the European economy is slowing again, then it is likely that the pressure on EURUSD will return, and the decline under the support of 1.1170 will bring back speculative sellers actively pushing the euro down to a minimum of 1.1115.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for April 30, 2019

BTC price did break new created bullish flag pattern on the 4H time-frame and confirmed the rejection of the lower diagonal of the upward channel. Watch for buying opportunities.

analytics5cc8555b6da1c.jpg

Orange rectangle – Resistance level, which became support

Purple rectangle - major short-term resistance

The bearish correction is completed in our view since the orange supply trendline got broken. The smaller bullish flag pattern did create just after the breakout of the support, which is sign for the further near-term upward movement. BTC Is still trading inside of the upward channel and BTC is expected to trade towards the resistance levels at $5.673 and $5.902. Support levels are seen at the price of $5.530 and $5.340.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. April 30th. The trading system "Regression Channels". A new fall factor for the pound

4-hour timeframe

apcU39mqFYewzAJeNM7JnqdfR-5TfeKChVmAy22Z

Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: 58.3668

Preview: the pound may lose its reserve currency status after Brexit. This may cause a drop in demand among Central Banks.

The GBP/USD continues correction. While there are no new reports on Brexit, negative news continues to come in on Brexit-related topics. For example, it became known that after Brexit, many world central banks are ready to reduce the number of reserves in pounds. This is due to the same uncertainty. The Central Bank does not know what will happen to the UK economy after leaving the EU. There are already many signs of deterioration. There is every reason to assume that after Brexit, the situation will not change for the better. Moreover, there is a possibility of a "hard" gap between the EU and Britain. This means that the "extra" pounds will go to the foreign exchange market in free access, the offer will grow, and, accordingly, the British currency may even further subside in value. Thus, the pound is pressured not only by Brexit itself but also by many other factors associated with Brexit. That is why we believe that until there is a clear decision on Brexit, there is no hope for a serious strengthening of the pound. Today, for the pound, we also expect a rebound from the moving average line. No important macroeconomic reports from the UK and the US are expected today. The influence of the Foundation will be absent.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2909

S2 - 1.2878

S3 - 1.2848

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2939

R2 - 1.3000

R3 - 1.3062

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD continues to be adjusted. Thus, after the completion of the correction, it is recommended to trade again for a fall with targets at 1.2878 and 1.2848, as the downtrend continues.

Buy positions are recommended to be considered after fixing the pair above the moving with the first targets at 1.2970 and 1.3000. Volatility on the pair remains weak, which should be taken into account when opening any positions.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. April 30th. The trading system "Regression Channels". Traders are awaiting the publication of the EU's GDP

4-hour timeframe

kbnw0vQ0yP2Fgj3QY9nyT420w-bkKQ2NnBGuFFba

Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 30.0146

On Tuesday, April 30, the currency pair EUR/USD has worked a moving average line and has not yet been able to overcome it. From a technical point of view, everything is logical and expected. No instrument can move in one direction forever. The price rebound from the moving average line can provoke a resumption of the downward movement, and a reversal of the down indicator Heiken Ashi will confirm this. Today, the eurozone is scheduled to publish reports on unemployment and GDP for the first quarter (preliminary value). Both of these reports can cause quite a strong market reaction, as they are quite important. Especially if the real values do not match the forecasts. Weak values are likely to cause new sales of the euro currency and the resumption of the downward trend. No major reports are expected from the States today. The volatility of the instrument is low enough, the pair was only about 40 points. Based on the current technical picture, the rebound from the MA looks the most preferable. From a fundamental point of view, the resumption of the downward movement is also preferable, as the euro did not have any serious fundamental support.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1169

S2 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1.1292

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to be adjusted. Thus, now it is still recommended to consider short positions with the target at 1.1108 but after the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down or the price rebounds from the MA.

Buy positions are recommended to open no earlier than fixing the pair above the moving average line with the first target at 1.1230. Today, the euro can theoretically get support if the GDP in the first quarter is higher than 1.1%.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the violet lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD plan for the American session on April 30. Pound buyers have actively declared themselves and breaks through the

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

In the morning review, I focused on the level of 1.2946 and the expected breakout led to the continuation of the upward correction in the GBP/USD pair. At the moment, the target of bulls is the resistance of 1.3017 and a breakthrough will maintain the upward momentum and lead the pound to highs in the area of 1.3046 and 1.3091, where I recommend taking profits. In case of unsuccessful consolidation above 1.3017 in the second half of the day, it is best to return to long positions after correction from support 1.2983 or to rebound from a larger level 1.2946.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears failed to seriously declare themselves and so far their return to the market remains in question. Only an unsuccessful consolidation and decline below the level of 1.3017 will lead to a downward correction of GBP/USD pair to the support area of 1.2980, where I recommend taking profits. The main task of the sellers of the pound will be a breakthrough of support 1.2980 and a test of a minimum of 1.2946. In case of further growth scenarios, it is best to rely on short positions after updating the resistance of 1.3046 or to rebound from a larger high 1.3091.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the upward correction.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decrease in the pound in the second half of the day, support will be provided by the average indicator border in the region of 1.2955.

3UYuas4zC0sgDcih_N1lVr4LLEpCpPTLpLfLRCaE

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on April 30. The demand for the euro returned due to good data on the GDP growth in eurozone

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Good data on the euro area, including GDP and the German consumer price index, helped euro buyers cope with all the tasks that were set for them in the first half of the day. Now, a test with a fixation above 1.1233 resistance is expected. Only after that you can count on the continuation of the upward correction in the area of maximum 1.1262, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of a downward EUR / USD correction in the second half of the day, long positions can return on a false breakdown from the intermediate support of 1.1203 or on a rebound from the minimum of 1.1174.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Bears were absent in the area of resistance at 1.1203 and you can count on their return only after updating the resistance of 1.1233. However, it is best to wait for a false breakdown to open short positions from there, considering what good data came out on the eurozone economy. Otherwise, it is best to sell the EUR/USD on a rebound from a maximum of 1.1262. The main goal of sellers in the afternoon will be to return to the support level of 1.1203.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the upward correction.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a decline in the euro in the second half of the day, support will be provided by the average indicator boundary around 1.1195.

R-duLEUnAnAcvl5mAIdATZ2GUZsgw9DsPe7Z315u

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil scared of the president

While oil has been marked as the best start in the first four months of the year since 1999, it is argued on the market what this may all end with. Since the 1970s, every rapid rally of black gold has turned into problems for the global economy. Consumer spending on gasoline and diesel fuel grew, as well as the cost of production increased and accelerated inflation, caused the central banks to tighten monetary policy. Donald Trump, whose appeal to OPEC to cut production, led to a 3% collapse of Brent and WTI at auction on April 26, is perfectly aware of such a scenario. Most likely, it was about closing speculative positions since the market as a whole remains under the control of the bulls.

Changes in oil prices in January-April

PEdOFfpQ_qvwLXQ4yR6Kxy6U2tokdn6mgKWEHF4S

The appeal of the US President to the cartel came at a time when the participants in the production-reduction agreement evaluated the impact of Washington's sanctions against Tehran and thought about whether black gold had risen too high because of them? According to BofA Merrill Lynch, oil production in Iran will decline from 3.6 million bpd in the third quarter of 2018 to 1.9 million bpd in the second half of 2019. Nevertheless, the bank believes that there will not be much growth in the market surplus as reserve capacities of other countries will cover it. Judging by the behavior of financial markets, investors do not particularly panic about the negative impact of the Brent and WTI rally on the global economy. First, the rise in prices was primarily due to supply disruptions. If so, then global demand will cope with the current value of black gold as the eurozone and China recover. Secondly, the market has changed. Costs have dropped and mining in the United States is growing at a record pace. In this regard, it can be assumed that future shocks will be less painful than before.

Oil production in the largest producing countries

dfUITJ9fsQpVd1pnXat4h8BhbNDRv-P3ScHtJqge

It should be noted that Riyadh has good reason to ignore Donald Trump's calls for OPEC to cut production. According to IMF research, to balance the budget of Saudi Arabia, oil is required at $ 85 a barrel. Donald Trump had no special effect. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia stated that the cartel is likely to prolong the agreement on reducing production outside of June. Most likely, until the end of the year. Coupled with the US sanctions against Iran and the increased risk of a military coup in Venezuela, as well as problems with pipelines in Russia and an increase in global demand, Brent and WTI are fully capable of continuing the northern campaign. According to the median estimate of the 31st Reuters expert, the average cost of a North Sea variety in 2019 will be $68.57, which is 2% higher than predicted in March, and a Texan with $60.23 per barrel.

Technically, if Brent bulls fail to return futures quotes above $72.75 (61.8% of the Shark pattern CD wave) in the near future, it will be the first indication of the weakness and increase the risk of further decline of oil in the framework of the transformation of the model Shark in 5-0.

Brent daily chart

pZSGSc_FdGCbScKwwIepwNJfFbxV8CMzYBYHLxEh

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Update for 30.04.2019; Two targets met, third target awaiting

EURUSD traded higher as we expected yesterday. The price tested the level of 1.1220. Strong bullish momentum is present and we still expect further upside.

analytics5cc843ad28a7c.jpg

Orange rectangle – 20EMA acting like support

Blue horizontal line – Resistance level

EURUSD did exactly how we expected yesterday. After the breakout of supply trendline (yellow diagonal) in the background and after the breakout of the bullish flag yesterday, the odds were on bullish movement. MACD oscillator is showing that increase in the upside momentum and that is good sign for the further upward continuation. Both our upward targets from yesterday were met at 1.1191 and 1.1220 but the third target is added and it is set at the price of 1.1260. Support levels are seen at the price of 1.1203-1.1192. Watch for buying opportunities on the dips with target at 1.1260.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for April 30, 2019

Gold traded higher in past 24h period as we expected and level of $1.278 provided great support. We expect further upward movement and potential test of upper references.

analytics5cc8406256413.jpg

Yellow rectangle – Short-term resistance, which became key support

Blue moving average – 20EMA acting like support

Green rectangle – Resistance based on price action

Green rectangle – Resistance 2 based on price action

Green rectangle – Resistance 3 based on price action

Gold did successful rejection of the key support at the price of $1.278, which is good sign for further upward price. Our advice is to watch for buying opportunities. Upward references are set at the price of $1.294.30, $1.300.95 and $1.310.00. As long as the Gold is trading above the $1.265.00, the short term-trend remains bullish. Medium Keltner average (20EMA) is acting like support together with rising ADX reading, which adds more potential for upside.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Fed will show the way to the greenback

Tomorrow, the United States Federal Reserve System (FRS) will announce its decision on monetary policy.

Recently, the US Central Bank made a dovish reversal, which eliminates the interest rate increase by the end of this year and announces its intention to complete the program to reduce its balance in September.

Greenback was depressed for a while until investors remembered that the United States was still at the forefront of the global economy and other global central banks were also following a dovish course.

It is expected that following the results of the next meeting, the Fed will leave the interest rate unchanged and the pause, which the regulator took earlier, will continue. However, the short-term dynamics of the dollar exchange rate will depend on what the Central Bank says and exactly how they will do it.

K6DcqHaqmeKTogZoVt1LMcu2wTEfZfkk88cfUC0T

In analyzing the tone of the statements of the regulator and the comments of Jerome Powell, one should pay attention to the following points, which can shed light on further steps of the Fed:

1. Employment

The American economy continues to actively create new jobs, approximately 200 thousand a month, which can only inspire, as well as unemployment at the level of 3.8%. Along with this, wages are rising. The rate of their annual growth a few months ago exceeded the level of 3% and confidently settled there.

However, now that strong employment rates are reflected in increased earnings, it may result that the pace of job creation may slow down.

What does the Fed think about this? Does he prefer to focus on the positive or negative aspects of the labor market?

It should be noted that market expectations regarding employment are quite high, so any signs of caution on the part of the Fed in this matter may put pressure on the US currency.

2. Inflation

In March, consumer spending in the United States grew for a maximum of more than nine and a half years but price pressure remained restrained, Moreover, one of the main inflation indicators (baseline PCE) showed the smallest increase over the past 14 months in annual terms.

How will the Fed respond to such results? The regulator most likely recognizes the fact of slowing inflation but the expectation of this has already been set by the market at prices.

If the Central Bank leaves this question without comment or does not express any concern on this matter, then this may provide support to the dollar.

3. Economic growth

Despite the fact that the latest release of US GDP gave a pleasant surprise, demonstrating an unexpected growth of 3.2% in the US economy in the first quarter, the market reacted rather coolly to this result. Firstly, the report showed weak inflation and secondly, the main driver of GDP growth was such an unstable factor as stocks.

How will the Fed comment on the latest figures? If the regulator decides that the glass is half full and once again marks the strength of the US economy, the dollar can strengthen. If the Central Bank retains a cautious attitude in this matter, then we should expect a weakening of the greenback.

"At the moment it is difficult to see something that could cause a greater dollar reversal," noted by currency strategists at Swedbank.

"What keeps moving greenback forward when the Fed behaves dovish, risk appetite is high, and the financial situation does not correspond to strong demand for USD? The answer, perhaps, lies in the fact that as long as the United States is ahead of other countries in terms of economic growth. The market will give preference to the US dollar", say by analysts at Saxo Bank.

"The events taking place in the global economy confirm the correctness of our" bullish "views on the American currency. However, it is not at all necessary that the growth of the dollar will turn out to be stable and aggressive," experts said.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Without risk appetite: investors will choose the US dollar and gold

Currently, many market participants have begun to sell US currency and invest in "risk assets" - stocks, raw materials and emerging markets due to the suspension in raising rates by the US Federal Reserve. However, this trend is fading away. Last week, the US dollar struck many-month highs against most world currencies. At the same time, the dollar stabilized against the backdrop of a stronger and gold prices began to rise.

aMKTPiOZKKIU4aMztPZi0wJ1fV2DQA2ODNf41VK3

Last Friday, April 26, Washington surprised experts with strong data on GDP growth. In the first quarter of 2019, the figure unexpectedly increased by 3.2% year-on-year. The tax cut initiated by the US president played a key role in stimulating economic activity in the country. Against the background of general political and economic instability in Europe, as well as a possible liquidity crisis, big business began to flow into the US dollar and US markets, analysts said. On top of that, a Fed rate of 2.5% makes American securities more profitable than European ones. However, further growth of the US currency may cause a chain reaction of sales of "risk assets" that were bought with borrowed dollars, experts warned. Currently, risk assets are considered to be raw materials and debt securities of developing countries, such as Turkey. Here, the debt crisis is raging, turned into a currency crisis, during which the devaluation of the lira to the US dollar has reached an impressive 40%. Another category of risky assets includes the Russian ruble and federal loan bonds (OFZ).

Experts draw attention to the gigantic size of world debt, reaching $250 trillion and exceeded 300% of world GDP. All over the world, a high debt load of the population was recorded. In China, household debt over the past 10 years has increased 4 times. The debt burden of the American corporate sector has almost doubled. In 2021, the maturity of corporate bonds in the amount of $2 trillion will come, which may cause a serious liquidity crisis and an uncontrolled increase in interest rates. According to experts, this can provoke a significant increase in the cost of the yellow metal. Experts are confident that in the case of the implementation of such a scenario, the price of gold will react the same as in the period from 2007 to 2011 when the precious metal prices rose from $650 to $1900 for 1 troy ounce. According to specialists, the price of gold has already noted the local minimum and will retain its position until August of this year, when the season of high demand for the yellow metal starts in Asia. Until that time, experts are counting on continued consolidation in the range of $1,250 to $1,350 for 1 ounce of precious metal.

Taking into account the above factors, analysts expect a new wave of "flight from risk" against the background of sales in stock markets, which can lead to a significant strengthening of the US dollar to the entire spectrum of currencies. However, this time the strengthening of the American currency will not entail a fall in the value of gold since the liquidity crisis creates an expectation of a new issue.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dynamics of the dollar will depend on the position of the Fed: selling EUR/USD pair, the likely continued growth of the

Tomorrow, May 1, there will be a one-day meeting of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy. Investors consider it a landmark, as they believe that because of the results, the regulator may give a signal about the decision to soften monetary policy by lowering interest rates in the second half of this year.

Such predictions are based on the opinion that ambiguous signals about the state of the American economy, as well as its future prospects, may force the Fed to lower rates in order to avoid stalling the country into recession on the one hand and to stimulate demand for US assets on the other. Moreover, the state of the global events such as the difficult economic situation in Europe, the ongoing trade war with China and brewing with the EU increases the risks of a negative scenario relative to all of these. In addition, an important point is strong pressure from Donald Trump on the Central Bank, who believes that his presidential rating is completely dependent on the dynamics of the local stock market.

Yes, indeed such dependence is noted. The positive attitude towards the American leader coincides with the growing dynamics of stock indices and their fall lowers the rating. Markets noticed this and actually began to direct Trump's mood and then the actions of the regulator, which was most pronounced at the end of last year and at the beginning of this.

If the Fed fails to preserve its independence and such a risk exists, then in a hidden form in the form of hints if not explicit it will signal about likely such plans at tomorrow's meeting it will signal about likely such plans. If this happens, the local stock market will receive good support and the dollar will undoubtedly be under pressure, as the prospects for lowering central bank rates will negatively affect the attractiveness of the currency.

At the same time, if the Fed again makes it clear that it will not do anything in the expected future and decides to continue to monitor the development of events - whereby prolonging the state of uncertainty - it can hit the dollar and it will resume its local decline.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair found resistance at 1.1190. If it is not overcome, there is a probability of a local price reduction to 1.1125.

The USD/CAD pair is trading in the middle of a short-term uptrend. If oil prices continue to be adjusted downward, there is a chance that the pair will continue to grow to 1.3600. In this case, it must be bought after rising above the level of 1.3500. At the same time, the resumption of growth in oil prices will support the Canadian currency and the pair after declining below 1.3455 may further fall to 1.3400 with the prospect of a decline to the lower limit of the trend already.

KYH3_UDoDThThes5SRUMxGf8wfGuXSgBVTiYCQ_1

ebLnSzvt17-ertmhqNXoCTRgxf_nm-V2I42EoU4J

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin. Consolidation continues

While the Bitcoin rate is consistently above the level of 5 000 USD, the globalization of the crypto industry continues to gain momentum. Most recently, a meeting was held at which 24 financial institutions and 11 international organizations, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, discussed international standards for the regulation of cryptocurrencies. Meetings and discussions at this level are good evidence that the industry continues to gain momentum and is being taken more seriously. In turn, this is a good signal for investors in the medium term.

Signal to buy Bitcoin (BTC):

In the short term, while trading is conducted above the range of 5370, buyers will remain optimistic and try to gain a foothold above the resistance of 5500, which will lead to another upward wave with the update of the maximum of 5660, where I recommend fixing the profits. With a decrease in Bitcoin, you can take a closer look at purchases from the support of 5360 and 200.

Signal to sell Bitcoin (BTC):

Another unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 5500 will be a signal to sell, however, the main goal of the sellers will be to return to the support of 5360, which can push the cryptocurrency to the minimum area of 5200 and 5050, where I recommend fixing the profits.

XVFMAhFSlr9t1ryeD8hyx4L5aFWowkz2qI-2ql38

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold. April 30th. The trading system "Regression Channels". Dollar grows – gold becomes cheaper

4-hour timeframe

Ravd2uC0g2y_fMd088OUUc0ZaqZvBUwWPjdcUJ7U

Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: -88.5593

Gold has been falling steadily since February 20, which is primarily caused by the strengthening of the US currency. However, now the instrument has managed to gain a foothold above the moving average line, which is a good help for the future uptrend. Confuses again the strength of the US currency, which is in high demand in the foreign exchange market. The euro and the pound have attracted few people in recent months, if not more, as instruments for long-term investment. The uncertainty with Brexit and the uncertainty in the trade war between the EU and the USA do not add confidence to traders in these currencies. In such circumstances, it would seem that the demand for gold is rising as one of the main assets designed to preserve value, that is, reserve assets. But in practice, we see that the US dollar is also winning on this front. The technique shows the upward movement of intraday on April 30. Since important information is not expected from the States today, it is unlikely that the technical picture will change. Thus, we expect a moderate movement up the instrument.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1281.25

S2 - 1277.34

S3 - 1273.44

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1285.16

R2 - 1289.06

R3 - 1292.97

Trading recommendations:

Gold is trying to resume the upward movement. Therefore, it is recommended to trade long positions with targets at 1285.16 and 1289.06. The upward trend is not strong, so positions should be opened in small lots.

Sell orders will again become relevant not earlier than overcoming the moving traders with the targets at 1273.44 and 1269.53.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the violet lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 30, 2019

analytics5cc8341a9e440.png

Overview: The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness following a breakout of the lowest level of 0.6648. On the H1 chart. the level of 0.6648 coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend. But, major resistance is seen at the level of 0.6690. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Therefore, strong resistance will be found at the level of 0.6690 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6575. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.6575, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level 0.6544.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 30, 2019

analytics5cc833823495b.png

Overview: The USD/CHF pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 1.0123 and 1.0177. Currently, the price is in an upward channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that the pair is still in a bullish trend. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.0177. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.0177. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 1.0177. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the level of 1.0177 with the first target at the level of 1.0265. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 1.0265, we should see the pair climbing towards the point of 1.0314. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.0123. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for April 30, 2019

analytics5cc83247d3860.png

Overview:

Pivot: 0.712.

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the levels of 0.7046 and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. The major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards thae first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated.

analytics5cc832cb401a6.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones of USD / CHF pair on 04/30/19

Work is carried out to this week within the local accumulation zone formed by the highs of the past week. As long as the pair is trading above the 1/4 WCZ of 1.0183-1.0178, the upward movement will remain an impulse. The probability of violation of the upward impulse and the formation of a deep correctional model is 90%, which determines the work within the day. Purchases from current grades are not profitable, therefore a search for a pattern for sale from extremes is required.

txJAdSIDPmCaxoK3Y0oXxOYldACNXn1VKvWCI6NY

The supply zone is already visible to the naked eye, so entering into its limits makes it necessary to consider the possibilities for selling the instrument. Orientation is necessary for the closure of the latest US sessions.

An alternative model will be developed if the current closure of the American session happens below the level of 1.0178. This will indicate a change in priority and movement to the next target zone at 1/2 WCZ of 1.0129-1.0119, where the fate of the medium-term impulse will be determined. Working in the sale to the specified levels allows you to get an advantage in our direction up to 70%.

09g2yGn1zhXiNc1NFe0Ki5TsIiMXGVvgpex3o0qO

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Monthly review of the pair GBP/USD for May 2019

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

In April, the bulls may try to move up again with the first target 1.3175 – 21 average EMA (black thin line).

l-R_qhmw4lwxY0fNcLP8i4g7xjxn1AexsXucE_1_

Fig. 2 (monthly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

The conclusion on the complex analysis - the upper is possible.

The overall result of the calculation of the GBP/USD currency pair candle on the monthly chart: the price is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow (the first week of the month is white) of the monthly white candle and the absence of the second upper shadow (the last week is white). The first upper target is 1.3175 – 21 middle EMA (black thin line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Monthly review of EUR/USD pair for May 2019

The market has a downward channel (red bold lines). The price in April, moving down, tested the support line – 1.1147 (blue thin line), but closed higher. A comprehensive analysis will show where the price will go further. There is a very strong signal upwards – the last three candles in a row are black, and they increase over the bodies in falling volumes.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The month of May can begin with an upward movement, with the first target 1.1229 – the resistance line (red bold line). The control point is 1.1229, after which it will be clear where the market will go, and this question will be answered by a comprehensive analysis.

QnkwalaxIW7puUn_npH1hWJkAyhg0UPLuG-tLSea

Fig. 2 (monthly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis is neutral;

- Bollinger lines - down;

The conclusion from the complex analysis is probably the top work.

The overall result of the calculation of the EUR/USD currency pair candle on the monthly chart: the price is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow (the first week of the month – the top) of the monthly white candle and the absence of the second upper shadow (the last week is white).

The month of May can begin with an upward movement, with the first goal of 1.1229 – resistance line (red bold line). There is a high probability of continuing upward movement.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis and forecast for USD/JPY and AUD/USD on April 30

USD/JPY

In the short-term, the yen price fluctuation algorithm sets the last rising wave from March 25th. The downward section of the chart from April 12 was a full correction (B) of the first segment (A) of this wave model. As part of the bearish wave in recent days, the counter pullback is developing.

Forecast:

The preliminary calculation of the target zone provides a reference point in the form of a support zone. The flat mood of the movement lasting in the last days can be completed already in the current day. An upward mood is more likely in the morning.

Recommendations:

The potential price growth of the yen is actually exhausted, so purchases in the coming sessions can be very risky. When the price approaches the calculated resistance, it is recommended to track the reversal signals to find entry points in short positions.

Resistance zones:

- 111.90 / 112.20

Support zones:

- 110.90 / 110.60

kX5YpILjQ1rpSHjsoovPPEb4GahcdsDckBygr03t

AUD/USD

The direction of the main trend of the Australian dollar since the end of January is set by a bearish wave. The final section started on April 17th. As of today, the correctional part (B) is formed within its framework. In its structure in recent days, rolling back down has been developing.

Forecast:

The current downside flat is expected to be completed in the next trading session. Then you should wait for a second attempt to rise. Its end is most likely within the resistance zone.

Recommendations:

In the area of the support zone within the "intraday", there is an opportunity to make short-term purchases "Aussie". When the price reaches the potential reversal zone, it is recommended to start tracking the signals of the pair sale.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7080 / 0.7110

Support zones:

- 0.7030 / 0.7000

LoUIW7udQcN08ELq8spa2myR7iit-s9KNG0ky7lr

Explanations to the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR/USD divergences on April 30. The euro took the first step towards recovery

4h

WXEnw6fdgPpA8DnKtPkuQbApvaKLzApOqtNAEfy3

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues the growth process and closed above the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177). As a result, on April 30, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1241). There is no single indicator of emerging divergences today. Closing the pair's rate under the retracement level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1102).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

zPHuY-I88enCcJL7WaUzSFm7-YCThdsIzzdpEWVu

As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair performed a close under the previous two low prices, which significantly increased the chances for the continuation of the fall. However, it is already clear that the quotes of the pair on both charts performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and began to return to the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1285). And the consolidation of the pair's rate above this level will increase the chances of continued growth in the direction of the next retracement level of 100.0% (1.1553).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1241 as pair has been closing above the level of 100.0%. The stop loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1177.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1102 if the pair closes below the retracement level of 100.0%. The stop loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1177.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP/USD divergences for April 30. The pound and the euro recover synchronously

4h

CwrWfOSRTGZ-GIt8YDNIyueVoSHS1ueHApzsi796

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair had all the chances to start falling, as a bearish divergence was formed in the CCI indicator. Although it has not been canceled yet, it is already clear that the pair is ready to continue growth in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.2969). The passage of the last divergence peak will work in favor of the British pound. A close above the Fibo level of 61.8% will further increase the chances of the pair for further growth in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3094).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

S1OxpMCVuiYRK5lWSEHkOywB5NkxyVEiEmVvpr5h

As seen on the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair secured above the retracement level of 127.2% (1.2917), thus increasing the chances of continued growth towards the next Fibo level of 100.0% (1.2976). There are no emerging divergences on the current chart. The consolidation of the rate below the level of 127.2% will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 161.8% (1.2842).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of March 29, 2019, and April 3, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.2976 and a stop loss order under the retracement level of 127.2% as the pair completed closing above 1.2917 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.2842 and a stop loss order above the level of 127.2% if the pair closes below the level of 1.2917 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD / USD: China disappointed but Aussie can buy

China disappointed today. During the Asian session in China, the PMI business index in the manufacturing industry was published based on a calculation by Caixin specialists. Contrary to optimistic forecasts, the indicator fell to 50.2 points but did not reach its previous value of 50.8 points. Official figures turned out to be even weaker. The PMI indicator in the manufacturing industry dropped to 50.1 points as calculated by the public service, which also disappointed most experts with an expected minimum growth to 50.5 points. The composite index of business activity fell to 53.4 points, showing a general decline.

In other words, both official and unofficial indicators of activity in the manufacturing industry came close to the 50 mark, which is the limit of expansion and resulted to contraction of business activity in this area accordingly. Although the indicators are still above the key level, the trend itself raises concerns.

e8G9g6kP2_BVcfm2BeTVP_hC0p1MZ7aMosrLl9mK

However, the reaction to this release was of a short-term nature. Due to weak China during the Asian session, anti-risk sentiment increased in the foreign exchange market. On this wave, the dollar rose while both the yen and gold strengthened slightly. Yet, the Australian, New Zealander and the Canadian showed a negative trend. However, there is no panic about Chinese data in the market. Therefore, we can assume that traders have already won back this fundamental factor with high probability. This "transience" of an important release is due to several reasons.

First, China recently published positive macro statistics mostly. Therefore, a small deviation of the PMI indicator from forecasts looks like the exception rather than the rule. Let me remind you that China's GDP in the first quarter of this year grew by 6.4%. This indicator by one-tenth of a percent exceeded the expectations of most analysts, although, in fact, the indicator remained at the level of the fourth quarter of last year. In addition, the volume of industrial production in China jumped at an annualized rate immediately by 8.5%, while experts predicted an increase in the rate of only 5.9%. Retail sales in China also turned out to be better than expected and jumped by 8.7% in March, exceeding the forecast level. In addition, exports increased significantly in March in dollar terms, it increased by 14% after a significant decrease of 20% in the previous month. In addition, the volume of bank lending has increased significantly. Last month, this figure doubled compared with the previous period, reaching almost 1.7 trillion yuan or 251 billion dollars.

In other words, the market estimates not individual indicators but in general tendency in general. Although, they certainly have an impact in the short-term period. For example, the Chinese indicators fell "on all fronts" last year but did not reach significantly the forecast levels. In light of these trends, the financial world was concerned about the slowdown in the global economy, after which, anti-risk sentiment has been in the foreign exchange market for several months. Today's release did not cause such consequences. Therefore, traders switched to the current macro statistics at the start of the European session in anticipation of the Fed meeting and the publication of Nonfarm.

This situation can be used when trading AUD/USD pair. In response to the release of Chinese data, Aussie dropped to 0.7040, thereby approaching a strong support level of 0.7000. This target is "not too tough" for the bears of the pair. For the past one and a half years, they have been trying to gain a foothold below this target but to no avail. Even a significant slowdown in Australian inflation and rumors about a possible reduction in the interest rate of the RBA did not break the psychologically important level. After a short-term decline in the 69th figure, the pair returned to their previous positions. Therefore, today's data will not be able to give the pair a downward impulse. This means that a corrective pullback will soon follow, which can be "caught" with the help of long positions.

It is also worth noting that the Australian dollar now enjoys the background support of the commodity market. In particular, the cost of iron ore increased again. At the moment, a ton of raw materials is estimated at $95 compared to the figure around $85 at the end of March and $75 at the beginning of the year. The accident at the Mina Feijao iron mine, owned by the largest mining company Vale in Brazil, occurred at the beginning of the year, which still has an impact on the iron ore market. Despite some restoration of capacity, the overall demand in the market does not exceed the supply and this fact pushes prices up.

W2-CR8Am8Xkki6_L_uYV18D5EIl3JcrMBUIAu5gY

Thus, from the current position or when approaching the key support level of 0.7000, we can consider longs with a target reference of 0.7090 with Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines coincide at this price point. The next resistance level is slightly higher at around 0.7110, which is the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for April 30. The British pound has gone up slightly, retaining the potential to reduce

yO58SEv3i3xYMQEyurVgM6IC8FMnfqtoEIXF7y6E

Wave counting analysis:

On April 29, the GBP / USD pair gained about 15 base points, which is still not enough to make any additions to the wave marking. Thus, as before, it involves the development of building a downward trend with goals located near the levels of 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci. Brexit recently did not give new interesting "messages". Secondary news does not have a strong impact on the foreign exchange market. A successful attempt to breakthrough the 100% Fibonacci level will indicate the readiness of the instrument to continue the increase.

Purchase goals:

1.3118 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.3168 - 50.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2839 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.2693 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still involves building a downward trend, especially after breaking through the bottom line of the triangle. Now, I recommend waiting for the completion of the corrective wave construction and selling the pair with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.2839 and 1.2693, which corresponds to 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for April 30. EU GDP Report may contribute to the resumption of wave 3

G3nLWIrGCmBXeEITDEohncxVG8a5ru-p-dvP6MVG

Wave counting analysis:

On Monday, April 27, trading ended for EUR / USD by 40 bp increase. The total growth in the last two days indicates the construction of an internal correctional wave, and after the completion of which, the lowering of the instrument should resume. This is exactly the scenario I expect from the couple this week. The news background remains neutral with a negative color for the euro currency. Today, there will be news on GDP and unemployment in the European Union, which won't remain unnoticed by the market. And today, everything will depend on the positivity of these reports for the euro. If it turns out that GDP for the first quarter will be weaker than the forecast of + 1.1%, then wave 3 can resume its construction today.

Sales targets:

1.1097 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1045 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1324 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build a downward trend, but a corrective wave is currently developing. The current wave counting assumes the resumption of the pair reduction with the closest targets 1.1097 and 1.1045, which equates to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. Upon completion of the rollback to the top, I recommend selling a pair with these goals.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast 04.30.2019 EURUSD

Buyers are trying to return the euro to the range and disrupt the trend. Perhaps they will succeed.

The main event will be the Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday at 18:00 London time - if the statement indicates an acceleration in economic growth - this could give a new impetus to the dollar growth.

Also important is the US employment report for April - a report from ADP tomorrow on Wednesday and an official report (Non-farm payrolls) on Friday, May 3.

We keep selling from 1.1220

In case of a full reversal, we buy from 1.1265

J9FpcDBP83DWdRgEHLw9I8njLBUHHk3sgpieDtak

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (April 30)

For the last trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed volatility below the daily average of 42 points, but this was enough to continue the formation of the correction phase. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a corrective move from the periodic point of support 1.1112, where the quote has already reached the previously passed level 1.1180, which is a mirror one. The information and news background for the past day did not have any statements or statistical data, thus the TA rules ball and the same technical correction.

drZ7ROI9XXQL2kqZhxHLEOigXT1VZ0t9HzkUlINj

Today, in terms of the economic calendar , we have a body of statistical data from Europe, where they will publish data on GDP (Q1) with a possible acceleration of up to 1.2%. At the same time, there are data for Germany, France, Spain, which together give good signals.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that, from the point of view of technical analysis, the corrective move may come to an end. The quotation has reached the previously passed level of 1.1180, and there is a probability of its refinement. Traders, in turn, are in no hurry to put an end to long positions and carefully analyze the current movement for a cluster. From which, it is quite possible to make a refill if the bullish interest persists and the current statistics for Europe will support the euro.

rdmcurCCikWBXMVobWa2_mMyNeBV9SqXooWaKTT-

Based on the data available, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- We consider buying positions in case of a clear price fixing higher than 1.1195.

- Positions for sale are considered in case of a clear price fixing lower than 1.1170

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term there is a downward interest against the background of the alleged cluster. Intraday perspective is in the ascending phase against the background of the correction. The medium-term perspective maintains a downward interest on the general background of the market.

ACnAjOOVxPgi1GZYpFQrscV1v7II9JO0beJL--kY

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(April 30, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 19 points. In the case of breakout of the level of 1.1180, the acceleration is possible.

nQt0SJIJNQtY7J1zTvHXDzDUBpU20sFN0XTH0m23

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1180; 1,1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 30. Bulls need to stay above the resistance of 1.2946, otherwise a downward

To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

In the morning, pound buyers need to consolidate above the resistance of 1.2946. Only after that can we expect the resumption of an upward correction with an update of targets in the area of 1.2983 and 1.3017, where I recommend to lock in the profit. If the pound decreases, in the absence of important fundamental statistics, support will be provided at 1.2905, however, long positions can be opened from it only if there is a false breakdown. To buy for a rebound would be best done from the bottom of the side channel of 1.2866.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The bears will expect unsuccessful consolidation in the first half of the day above the resistance of 1.2946, which will lead to the formation of a small wave of pressure on the pound and a return to the area of the middle of the side channel of 1.2905, a break below which will be the main target of sellers. Only after that can we expect the return of GBP/USD to the area of the monthly low. In case of growth above 1.2946, GBP/USD can be sold to rebound from a high of 1.2983.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound decreases, support may be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2915.

nIOKsjhdMO_OBFHVyXkyII87Rm9uj4RypWwF24Cl

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on April 30, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, technical analysis demonstrates the continuation of the upward movement. The first upper target of 1.2988 is the pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

fHXDXSM-9dN41WltRXeBP6EHdePTJRCNgVagHkgW

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, technical analysis demonstrates the continuation of the upward movement. The first upper target of 1.2988 is the pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com