Gold analysis for December 15, 2016

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Recently, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the $1,126.87 level in a high volume. Using the market profile, I found todays' point of control at the price of $1,142.00 on the 30M time frame. There is also profile peak at the price of $1,137.35. Watch for small retracement to establish bearish positions. Price is trading below 21SMA, which is another sign of weakness. Downward targets are set at the levels of $1,126.15, $1,115.00 and $1,097.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,164.00

R2: 1,169.00

R3: 1,177.70

Support levels:

S1: 1,147.40

S2: 1,142.20

S3: 1,133.80

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for selling opportunities on the pullbacks.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 15, 2016

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During August and September, a consolidation range was established from the price level of 0.7250 up to 0.7350.

Later on October 20, the lower limit of the consolidation range (0.7250) stood as a temporary resistance which initiated a bearish movement towards 0.7100 (lower limit of the depicted channel).

Bullish recovery was expressed around the price level of 0.7100 on October 28. Hence, a double-bottom pattern was expressed on the chart.

Bullish fixation above 0.7250 and 0.7350 was needed to allow further bullish advance towards the projected target of the reversal pattern around 0.7450.

However, significant signs of a bearish reversal were expressed around the upper limit of the price range (0.7350).

The bearish breakdown of 0.7250 (lower limit of the depicted range) enhanced the bearish side of the market towards the price level of 0.7100 (recent bottom of October 28) which was broken as well.

Bearish persistence below 0.7100 allowed a quick decline towards 0.6960 (BUY zone) where bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry were expected. All T/P levels were successfully achieved.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 0.7100 is needed to pursue towards lower target levels around 0.7060 and 0.6990.

On the other hand, the price level of 0.7250 remains a significant SELL entry if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.7200.

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EUR/NZD analysis for December 15, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the price of 1.4755. Using the market profile, I found yesterday's point of control at 1.4745 on the 30M time frame. The price is trading below the 21SMA, and I found a supply cluster from the top, which is a sign of weakness. Also, there is volume absorption in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of 1.4715 and 1.4690.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1.4810

R2: 1.4840

R3: 1.4880

Support levels:

S1: 1.4725

S2: 1.4700

S3: 1.4660

Trading recommendations for today: watch for selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of AUD/CAD for December 15, 2016

After reaching the top near 1.0350, AUD/CAD reversed down and broke below the 200 Moving Average suggesting that the trend is changing. The price continued to move lower while rejecting the downtrend trendline.

The pair formed the support near 0.9850 area, however this support has been broken and currently is acting as a resistance. Fibonacci applied to last corrective wave up, where the 0.9850 support and the downtrend trendline were rejected, shows potential downside targets.

Consider selling AUD/CAD at the current rate (0.9830), targeting either 161.8% (0.9728) and 261.8% (0.9631) or 361.8% (0.9535) Fibonacci retracement levels. The suggested stop loss is 0.9885.

Support: 0.9788, 0.9728, 0.9632, 0.9535

Resistance: 0.9885

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Technical analysis of GOLD for December 15, 2016

As per our previous analysis, gold started to move lower, breaking below the 161.8% (1,113) Fibs support level. Two downside targets remain at 261.8% (1,116) and 361.8% (1,189).

Consider holding short positions. Move the stop loss to breakeven level and target either 1,116 or 1,089 support level.

Support: 1,144, 1,116, 1,089

Resistance: 1,160, 1,187

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Global macro overview for 15/12/2016

Global macro overview for 15/12/2016:

The Swiss National Bank has decided to leave the LIBOR rate unchanged at the negative level of -0.75% today. Moreover, the LIBOR 3-month lower target range has been unchanged as well at the level of -1.25% and LIBOR 3-month upper target range has been unchanged at the level of -0.25%. At the press conference, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said the Swiss situation is different than the US situation regarding interest rates and it is still too early to speak of a turning point for interest rates across all cycles. A lot depends on developments in the US economy and the FED monetary policy. In conclusion, nothing new from Jordan as this rhetoric had been heard before, but the SNB seems to be more dependent on the FED than the ECB than previously thought.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CHF technical picture in the daily time frame. The bulls are in full control over this market as they try to test the technical resistance at the level of 1.0329. The price trades above all of the moving averages and the next support is seen at the level of 1.0256.

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Global macro overview for 15/12/2016

Global macro overview for 15/12/2016:

Just as widely anticipated, the US Federal Reserve raised the interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% yesterday (all 103 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecasted a hike). At the press conference, the FED Chair Jannet Yellen said the votes were unanimous and gradual policy path plan would support 'some further strengthening' on goals. Moreover, she noted that the FED policy remains accommodative as inflation has accelerated since earlier this year. This is why the FED projects three more hikes in 2017. The near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, household spending has been 'rising modestly' as the FED sees a slightly higher pace of growth and lower unemployment. In conclusion, the statement offers many clues about what comes next and it is pretty hawkish. However, the economic comments are not that much changed, except the increased positive tone regarding the job market.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture on the monthly time frame after the FED interest rate decision and economic projections. Based on very simple Fibonacci techniques and basic Elliott Wave Principle labeling, we can clearly see the impulsive move from the lows set in 2007 has not been completed yet. The most probable price cluster that would act as a target for the price is between the levels of 108.39 and 108.72. It still looks like this is where the price will be heading in 2017.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 15, 2016

General overview for 15/12/2016:

After the FED decision to raise the interest rates, the price bounced impulsively to the upside almost hitting 50%Fibo at the level of 1.3333. This means the bottom of the wave 5 (blue) of the wave 1 (purple) has been established a little sooner than anticipated. Moreover, according to the updated H4 time frame labeling, this low might be just the wave (b) (blue) bottom. This means the price should move even higher as the wave (c) of the final wave Y (brown) unfolds.

Support/Resistance:

1.3061 - WS1

1.3269 - Intraday Support

1.3322 - Intraday Resistance

1.3208 - Weekly Pivot

1.3263 - WR1

1.3412 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Both TP from the beginning of the week were hit yesterday, so all buy order should be now closed or put on the trailing stop.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 15, 2016

General overview for 15/12/2016:

The bottom for the wave (4) (blue) at the level of 120.89 seems to be too short in price and time to act as a completed wave (4) low. The sharp rebound from this level is currently unfolding, but so far only three waves have been done. This is why the current wave progression to the upside still looks like a corrective bounce in the form of a zig-zag pattern, than a regular impulsive wave progression. Nevertheless, to confirm this scenario, the price must break out below the level of 122.91.

Support/Resistance:

124.00 - Intraday Resistance

122.93 - Intraday Support

121.38 - Weekly Pivot

120.89 - Intraday Support

119.40 - WS1

118,71 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

The top for the wave b (green) might be soon in place, so day traders should consider opening only sell orders with SL just above the level of 124.00. TP should be set at the level of 122.91 and below.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 15, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair set above strong support at the level of 1.0189 , which coincides with the 100% Fibonacci retracement level (breakout). This support has been rejected for five times confirming strong bullish momentum. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 1.0189 because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend from the area of 1.0189 and 1.0300. The USD/CHF pair is trading in a bullish trend from the last support line of 1.0189 towards the first resistance level at 1.0266 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.0266 and further to the level of 1.0300. The level of 1.0300 will act as second resistance so as to form a new double top. At the same time, if a breakout happens at the support levels of 1.0189, then this scenario may be invalidated. But in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 15, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the levels of 0.7164, 0.7141, and 0.7117. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.7164 (this level of 0.6557 coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels) to the bottom around 0.7089. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7117 followed by 0.7164, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7066. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7117 and 0.7066. If the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7117, the market will decline further to 0.7066. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7043 in order to test the double bottom on the H1 chart. Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned resistances levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed for the downside. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7164 (major resistance), then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Technical analysis of USDX for December 15, 2016

The Dollar index is making new highs after the FOMC meeting yesterday and the announcements on Fed policy by Janet Yellen. Bulls should not be very enthusiastic at current levels and should not chase the bullish trend. Trend however remains strongly bullish and therefore bulls should protect their positions by raising their stops.

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Red line - resistance

Black line - support

There is bearish divergence in both oscillator indicators. Despite the new high in price, both the RSI and the Stochastic did not produce a new high. Bulls need to be very cautious. The 99 price level is very important support both in the short and long term.

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Green line - trend line support

On a weekly basis, we have new highs and a break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Last week's low at 99.44 is now a very important support level. As long as price is above that level trend remains bullish. Only the weekly stochastic is diverging in overbought levels. If the RSI joins, this will be a very big warning.

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Technical analysis of gold for December 15, 2016

Gold price broke below support yesterday and is heading towards $1,120 which is the next important Fibonacci level. Trend remains bearish. Trend will change only above $1,170.

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Red rectangle - long-term resistance

Blue line - trend line resistance

Oscillators are oversold but with new confirmed lows, we should expect this downside trend to continue towards $1,120. Trend is bearish as long as price is below $1,170. As long as price is below the Ichimoku cloud, our long-term bullish view remains in danger.

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Red lines - bullish wedge

Price remains inside the bullish wedge pattern. I expect this wedge to be broken. However there is still no reversal sign. This signal could come once we touch the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1,120.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 15, 2016

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USD/JPY is expected to advance further. The pair is accelerating on the upside, backed by its rising 20-period moving average. A new challenge to its next resistance at 117.85 seems more likely to occur. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50.

The widely expected decision to lift the benchmark federal fund rate by a quarter-percentage point was taken by a unanimous vote of the ten members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Apart from raising interest rates, the Fed officials also signaled that they expect to raise short-term rates three times next year as the U.S. economy shows signs of improvement, up from their previous estimate of two increases. U.S. government bonds pulled back sharply sending the benchmark 2-year Treasury yield up to 1.239%, its highest close since August 2009, from 1.169% Tuesday, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to a two-year high of 2.523% from 2.484% in the previous session. he ICE U.S. Dollar Index marked a day-high of 102.35, the highest intraday level since January 2003, before settling at 101.76, up 0.7% on day.

Thus, as long as the key level at 116.65 is not broken below, look for a further upside toward 117.85 and even 118.25 in extension.

Trading Recommendation: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 117.85 and the second one at 118.25. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.35 if the price moves below its pivot point. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 116.05. The pivot point lies at 116.65.

Resistance levels: 117.85, 118.25, 118.50

Support levels: 116.35, 116.05, 115.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 15, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to continue its upside movement. The pair managed to break above its declining trend line which emerged on December 9, and is now accelerating on the upside. The rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages maintain a bullish bias, and the relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50.

The widely-expected decision to lift the benchmark federal fund rate by a quarter-percentage point was taken by a unanimous vote of the ten members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Apart from raising interest rates, the Fed officials also signaled that they expect to raise short-term rates three times next year as the U.S. economy shows signs of improvement, up from their previous estimate of two increases. The U.S. dollar's surge after the interest rate increase helped to pressure prices of oil and precious metals.

Hence, as long as 1.0190 is not broken, we keep our positive view unchanged with a first up target at 1.0255. A break above this level would call for a further advance toward 1.0275.

The U.S. dollar was little changed after its retreat on Monday. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index managed to hold onto the 101.00 level. Traders were waiting for the highly-expected 25-basis-point interest-rate rise to be confirmed by the Federal Reserve, and watching closely if the central bank would indicate the pace of higher rates.

Hence, as long as 1.0145 is not surpassed, likely decline to 1.0080 and 1.0035 in extension.

Resistance levels: 1.0255, 1.0275, 1.0305

Support levels: 1.0170, 1.0145, 1.0110

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 15, 2016

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NZD/USD is under pressure. The pair has accelerated on the downside, while the 20-period moving average has crossed below its 50-period one. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is below its oversold level at 30 and lacks upward momentum. Hence, as long as 0.7130 holds as the key resistance, the risk of a break below 0.7075 remains high.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7075. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7050. The pivot point stands at 0.7130. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will go above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7150 and the second one at 0.7175.

Resistance levels: 0.7150, 0.7175, 0.7245

Support levels: 0.7075, 0.7050, 0.7020

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 15, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 146.35. The pair has broken above its previous high and is looking for a higher top. And the relative strength index is mixed to bullish. As long as 146.35 is not broken down, further bounce is preferred with 147.65 and 148.40 as targets.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 147.65 and the second one at 148.40. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 145.90 if the price moves below its pivot point. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 145.50. The pivot point lies at 146.35.

Resistance levels: 147.65, 148.40, 149.00

Support levels: 145.90, 145.50, 144.65

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Dec 15, 2016

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When the European market opens, a slew of economic data will be released such as Long Term Refinancing Operation, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, and French Flash Manufacturing PMI. The US will release the economic data too such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Natural Gas Storage, NAHB Housing Market Index, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current Account, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m. Thus, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0538.

Strong Resistance:1.0531.

Original Resistance: 1.0521.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0511.

Target Inner Area: 1.0486.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0461.

Original Support: 1.0451.

Strong Support: 1.0441.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0434.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 15, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release the Flash Manufacturing PMI. On the dollar front, the US will present a series of economic reports such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Natural Gas Storage, NAHB Housing Market Index, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Current Account, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 118.24.

Resistance 2: 118.00.

Resistance 1: 117.78.

Support 1: 117.49.

Support 2: 117.26.

Support 3: 117.03.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 15, 2016

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The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (historical bottoms set in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June a significant bearish break below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts (fundamental reasons).

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhanced the bearish scenario towards the current price levels around 1.2700 (nearest bearish projection target).

Note that the GBP/USD pair was trapped inside the depicted consolidation range above 1.2700 until a bearish breakout took place on October 6.

Daily persistence below 1.2700 confirmed the bearish Flag pattern. That is why, a bearish projection target would be located around 1.2020.

Recently, bullish recovery was manifested around 1.2080. That is why, a bullish pullback is being executed towards 1.2700-1.2750.

Risky traders can consider the current bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2700-1.2750 for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be set as daily closure above 1.2750. T/P levels should be located at 1.2300 and 1.2100.

This SELL entry should be managed cautiously as the ascending bottoms around the price levels of 1.2120 and 1.2320 will probably apply significant bullish pressure over the Supply zone of 1.2700-1.2750 thus threatening the suggested trade.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 15, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again in February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the depicted supply levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May, August, and October 2016).

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target when the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish persistence below 1.0825 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.

In September 2016, temporary bullish breakout above 1.1250 was expressed again, but evident bearish pressure was applied on the EUR/USD pair on September 16.

Bearish closure below 1.1250 (supply level 1) maintained enough bearish pressure and enhanced the bearish momentum towards the price level of 1.1000 (key level 1).

On November 9, obvious bearish breakdown of the 1.1000 price level occurred (Shooting Star daily candlestick). Moreover, further decline below 1.0825 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was expressed.

Bearish persistence below 1.0825 allowed a further decline to occur at 1.0570 (demand level) where bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry were expected by the end of last week.

Recent bullish recovery was seen on the depicted daily chart.

The price level of 1.0825 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) constituted a recent supply level which offered a valid SELL entry. Stop Loss should be lowered to 1.0700 to secure some profits

On the other hand, bearish persistence below the depicted demand level around 1.0570 is needed to allow further bearish decline. The first bearish target would be located around 1.0220.

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EUR/USD profit target reached, remain bearish

Price dropped perfectly to our profit target. We are now looking to sell on strength below 1.0564 resistance (Fibonacci retracement) for a further drop to 1.0456 (Fibonacci projection).Stochastic (21,5,3) has reacted off our 95% resistance perfectly as expected and we expect a further drop as it still has good downside potential.

Sell below 1.0564. Stop loss at 1.0608. Take profit at 1.0456.

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USD/CHF profit target reached, prepare to turn bearish

Price has reached our profit target from yesterday. We prepare to turn bearish below 1.0256 (2016 all-time high resistance) for a drop to at least 1.0147 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support). Stop loss is at 1.0283 which is a strong Fibonacci projection level + horizontal resistance level.

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major resistance and we expect a reaction off this level.

Sell below 1.0256. Stop loss at 1.0283. Take profit at 1.0147.

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NZD/USD profit target reached again, remain bearish

Price dropped perfectly from our selling area to our profit target for the sixth time in a row. We are now looking to sell on strength below 0.7154 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, ascending resistance pullback) for a further drop to 0.7046.RSI (34) has also made a bearish exit of a long-term ascending support-turned-resistance line. This shows a change in momentum from bullish to bearish.

Sell below 0.7223. Stop loss at 0.7257. Take profit at 0.7168.

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AUD/USD dropping perfectly as expected, remain bearish

Price has dropped perfectly from our selling area as expected and is approaching fast our profit target. We tighten our stop loss and consider selling further below 0.7431 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) for a drop to at least 0.7310 (Fibonacci projection, horizontal swing low support).Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong resistance at the 93% level and is also displaying a bearish divergence vs price.

Sell below 0.7431. Stop loss at 0.7524. Take profit at 0.7310.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 15, 2016

Following the Fed's rate hike at the December meeting, the US Dollar index had a strong bullish momentum above the 200 SMA on H1 chart and now it's heading toward the resistance level of 102.87, which is a key supply area. That could be possible to reach in the near time, as the index managed to break a sideways range. A strong support lies around 100.81.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 102.87 / 103.98

H1 chart's support levels: 101.74 / 100.81

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 101.56, take profit is at 101.93 and stop loss is at 101.18.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 15, 2016

The pair plummeted below the 1.2600 handle following the Fed's decision to raise rates by 25 basis points in their December's meeting. Currently, GBP/USD is consolidating below the 200 SMA and a breakout below the 1.2551 level should open the doors to test the 1.2497 price zone. MACD indicator is on the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2637 / 1.2700

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2551 / 1.2497

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2637, take profit is at 1.2700 and stop loss is at 1.2574.

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