BITCOIN Analysis for June 15, 2018

Bitcoin bounced above $6,500 area yesterday quite surprisingly. This opens the doors for the bulls to push the price higher for a certain period of time. Due to the recent negative reports about hacker attacks and Bitcoin experts signaling the price to move lower towards $5,000, the sentiment was quite against the bullish pressure. Nevertheless, yesterday we observed certain bullish pressure leading to a bullish daily close above $6,500 area, the price is expected to push higher for a certain period towards the dynamic level of 200 EMA residing at $7,000-7,500 area. After the price is rejected off the area, the bearish pressure is expected to continue to push the price lower with a target towards $5,000 area in the coming days. As the price remains below $8,000 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

analytics5b23a8a9a486b.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for June 15, 2018

EUR/GBP has been residing inside the correction range 0.87 to 0.8850 area for a few weeks now, where the price showed impulsive bearish pressure yesterday following the recently published EUR economic reports and events.

Recently EUR Main Refinancing Rate report was published with an unchanged value as expected at 0.00% but ECB failed to impress the market participants with its upcoming plans to for the economic growth. EUR economy has been quite unimpressive recently leading EUR to lose certain grounds in the market. Today EUR Final CPI report was published with an unchanged value as expected at 1.9%, Final Core CPI report was also published unchanged as expected at 1.1% and Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to 18.1B from the previous figure of 19.8B which was expected to increase to 20.2B.

On the other hand, GBP gained momentum having better than expected Retail Sales report yesterday. Retail Sales report was published at 1.3% decrease from the previous value of 1.8% which was expected to decrease to 0.5%. The better than expected result helped GBP to gain momentum when EUR was struggling to make an impact. As a result, GBP gained quite impulsively against EUR in the process which is expected to continue further in the coming days leading to more gains on the GBP side in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has rejected the bulls with greater extent today after the recent impulsive bearish pressure breaking below 0.8750 area with a daily close. Though the price is currently residing inside the support area of 0.8700-50 the bears are expected to push the price much lower towards 0.85 in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.8850 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

analytics5b23a6b905606.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for June 15, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite impulsive in the bearish bias after bouncing off the 84.00 area with a daily close recently. Amid the recent mixed employment report from Australia, JPY has gained impulsive momentum which is expected to encourage a further downward move in the coming days.

Today, RBA Assistant Governor Ellis spoke about the nation's key interest rate and future monetary policies which had a neutral impact on the market. RBA is currently in the process to develop plans for GDP growth with not much change in the policies which will be inveiled in the coming days.

On the other hand, today Japan's Policy Rate report was published with the same record low key policy rate at -0.10% in line with expectations, whereas BOJ Press Conference was quite indecisive, having a neutral impact on further economic developments.

As for the current scenario, certain correction and indecision is expected in this pair in the short run. JPY is expected to have an upper hand over AUD in the process, as AUD is found struggling for gains amid the fresh employment reports.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 83.50-84.00 resistance area after the recent rejection off the level with a daily close. The price is being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA in the process along with Bearish Divergence as well, which is expected to push the price much lower towards 80.50-81.50 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 84.50 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

analytics5b23a12a805a4.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for June 15, 2018

analytics5b23a4397dd83.png

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1542. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential end of the bullish corrective phase in the background. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1510.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1760

R2: 1.1950

R3: 1.2050

Support levels:

S1: 1.1469

S2: 1.1370

S3: 1.1178

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CAD for June 15, 2018

EUR/CAD is currently residing below 1.53 price area after being rejected off the 1.5350 price area with an impulsive bearish daily candle. EUR has been quite weak in comparison to CAD in the current market scenario, where the price is expected to push much lower in the coming days.

Despite the recent weak economic reports of CAD including a decrease in Employment Change to -7.5k from the previous figure of -1.1k, did have an impact on the growth of CAD in the process. Recently CAD NHPI report was published unchanged at 0.0% which was expected to increase to 0.2%.

On the other hand, EUR has been quite mixed with the recent economic reports whereas ECB had less to offer for the currency growth in the market. Today Final CPI report was published with an unchanged value as expected at 1.9%, Final Core CPI report was also published unchanged as expected at 1.1% and Trade Balance report was published with decrease to 18.1B from the previous figure of 19.8B which was expected to increase to 20.2B.

As of the current scenario, CAD is expected to gain further momentum over EUR in the coming days as of the recent EUR worse economic reports having impact on the economy growth. Though there are certain high impact economic events like ECB President Draghi's speech for a multiple time which is expected to inject volatility ahead of the CAD CPI and Retail Sales report to be published in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of breaking below the dynamic level of 20 EMA after being bounced off with a daily close from 1.5350 area. Currently the price is forming certain Continuous Bearish Divergence in the process, which is expected to push the price lower towards 1.50 in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.5350 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

analytics5b23a43a8446f.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 15, 2018

analytics5b23a0d02b2d2.png

Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

As mentioned, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) was considered a prominent Supply zone where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry was offered Yesterday. S/L should be lowered to 1.1720 to offset the associated risks.

As depicted on the chart, evident bearish rejection was expressed around the price zone of (1.1850-1.1750). This enhances the bearish side of the market towards 1.1520-1.1420.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 is the next destination for the current bearish decline where price action should be watched for bullish demand and a possible bullish pullback.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for June 15, 2018

analytics5b23a0ee6e26e.png

Since January, the price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 has been standing as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous weeks' consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to entry levels (0.7050) to offset the risk.

Currently, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 will be the next destination for the NZD/USD pair. It should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible valid BUY entry.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 15, 2018

analytics5b239891789f3.png

Overview:

The GBP/USD pair opened below the weekly pivot point (1.3429). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.3429 to the bottom around 1.3225. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3429 followed by 1.3580, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3225. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.3225. So it will be good to sell at 1.3250 with the first target of 1.3200. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.3106.

The strong daily support is seen at the 1.3106 level, which represents the double bottom on the H4 chart. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3250 and 1.3106 in coming hours. The price area of 1.3300 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the levels of 1.3300/1.3429 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.3429, then a stop loss should be placed at 01.3475.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 15/06/2018

The Eurostat published the most important report during today's European session: the final data on consumer inflation in the Eurozone (CPI). In the case of data on a monthly basis, market forecasts increase, as was the case for year-on-year readings. As it turned out, expectations were a spot on.

In annual terms, inflation in May 2018 reached 1.9%, which in comparison to the April reading (1.3%) indicates its increase. In turn, the annualized CPI for the entire EU reached the level of 2.0% against 1.5% in April this year, while a year earlier the reading indicated 1.6%. Data on a monthly basis point to CPI inflation by 0.5%, thus they are in line with market expectations, but higher than the previous reading (0.3%).

The lowest increase in inflation was recorded in Ireland (0.7%) and Greece (0.8%). The highest in Romania, where the CPI is up 4.6%.

In conclusion, the Consumer Price Index data were in line with expectations, but there are still below the ECB target on a minimum 2.0%.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Quotations of the main currency pair are correcting the strong decline, which lasted until the end of yesterday's session. As can be seen in the 4-hour chart below, inflation data help to move the price above the level of 1.1600, but the nearest technical resistance at 1.1616 seems to be the line in the sand for now. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1542 and violation of this level would immediately lead to the test of the swing low at the level of 1.1509.

analytics5b239950ee10c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 15, 2018

analytics5b23977019fd2.png

Overview:

Pivot: 0.7075.

The NZD/USD pair didn't make significant movement last week. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 0.7185 or higher. The NZD/USD pair continues to rise from the level of 0.6977 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.6977 which represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7057. So, buy above the level of 0.7057 with the first target at 0.7121 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7121. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.7185 is a good place to take profit because. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6977, the stop loss should be placed at 0.6848.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD analysis for June 15, 2018

analytics5b238d79454be.png

Recently, the AUD/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 0.7459. According to the H1 time – frame, I found broken upward trendline in the background which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a potential end of the intraday bullish corrective phase which is a sign that AUD/USD may continue lower. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 0.740.

Resistance levels:

R1: 0.7539

R2: 0.7610

R3: 0.7650

Support levels:

S1: 0.7430

S2: 0.7393

S3: 0.7320

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for June 15, 2018

analytics5b2383b8dc15f.png

The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards.The price tested the level of $6.671. Taxpayers in Russia have started declaring incomes and profits from crypto transactions even before cryptocurrencies are legalized in the country, results from this year's tax campaign show. The Finance Ministry has again clarified the applicable tax rules, while the State Duma is still fine-tuning the upcoming regulations. The technical picture on Bitcoin looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found a rising trednline in the background, which is a sign that intraday buyers are in control. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $6.874.

Support/Resistance

$6.670 – Intraday resistance

$6.495– Intraday support

$6.874– Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of GBP/USD as of June 15, 2018

The growth rate of retail sales in the UK accelerated from 1.4% to 3.9% with a forecast of 2.4%. But the pound was still losing its positions quickly, for which it had to say a special thanks to Mario Draghi, who provoked a panic collapse of the single European currency, and it already dragged the pound along with the dollar index. The main issue that everyone asked the ECB's board before the meeting was the fate of the quantitative easing program. Many feared that it could be extended, but almost everyone was sure that no concrete steps would follow after yesterday's meeting, as, according to preliminary data, inflation in Europe began to grow rapidly. However, the decision of the ECB was a complete surprise, and most importantly - confirmed all the fears: as planned earlier, until September, the quantitative easing program will be 30 billion euros a month. but after September, instead of its curtailment, it will operate until December, however, in the amount of 15 billion euros a month. So, yes, the ECB has extended the program of quantitative easing. Given the fact that this is not the first extension of the quantitative easing program, no one can guarantee that it will not be renewed.

In fairness, it should be noted that even without the decision of the ECB to extend the quantitative easing program, the dollar had grounds for growth. The fact is that the growth rates of retail sales did not slow from 4.8% to 4.4%, but accelerated to 5.9%. Also, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 53 thousand.

Today in the UK did not publish any macroeconomic data, but in the US there are data scheduled to be released, and they will be more likely to be negative. The fact is that industrial production is projected to slow down from 3.5% to 2.7% with an increase in capacity utilization from 78.0% to 78.1%. This indicates that the American industry is not in a good state, since it indicates that the depreciation of fixed assets in the United States is high. Moreover, after such a significant drop in the pound, any bad news from the US will be perceived as an excuse for a rebound.

The pound has a good chance to grow to 1.3300.

analytics5b236b2c8c7fa.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP/USD for June 15. Correction structure can take a shortened form

analytics5b236b3e9d5a4.png

Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on June 14, the GBP/USD pair lost about 200 bp, but remained within the framework of the proposed wave b, in 2. The break of the May 29 low is likely to mean a resumption of the construction of the downward trend section with the first targets about 1.3045. At the same time, wave 2, in a can take the form of one of the correctional triangles, which will allow to expect the construction of its internal wave s with the targets located near the estimated mark 1.3651.

Targets for buying:

1.3478 - 23.6% by Fibonacci

1.3528 - 127.2% by Fibonacci of the highest order

1.3651 - 38.2% by Fibonacci

Targets for selling:

1.3045 - 200.0% by Fibonacci of the highest order

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The assumed wave 2, however, can take a more complex form. A successful attempt to breakdown 32 figures can confirm the transition of the instrument to the construction of the supposed wave 3, at a with the targets being around 1.3045, which is equivalent to 200.0% Fibonacci. At the same time, there are still some chances to build a wave c, in 2 with the exit of quotations to 1.3651. Trade should now be conducted carefully, as there are two practically equivalent options for the development of events.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR/USD for June 15. The ECB has done everything to make the euro fall into the abyss

analytics5b236b130431c.png

Analysis of wave counting:

As a result of the previous day, the EUR/USD pair lost almost 300 bp from the high of the day, after the ECB announced the extension of the program of buying up assets before the end of this year. The pair performed a point shot at the level of 1,1837, thus completing the construction of the supposed wave 5, at 1, at 1. The breakdown of the minimum of May 29 will lead to the need to refine the entire wave of markup and will mean a complication of the internal wave structure of the descending section of the trend originating still on March 27th. Small chances of resuming the construction of an upward trend segment are still available if the proposed wave 2 completes its construction in the next few hours.

Targets for selling:

1.1439 - 323.6% by Fibonacci of the highest order

1.1121 - 423.6% by Fibonacci of the highest order

Targets for buying:

1.1958 - 161.8% by Fibonacci of the highest order

1.2070 - 127.2% by Fibonacci of the highest order

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has completed the construction of wave 5, at 1, at 1 and, probably, is close to the completion of corrective wave 2. If this is the case, then the increase in quotes will resume. At the same time, the breakdown of the mark of 1.1510 will lead to the complication of the downward trend section. Then it is recommended to resume selling the pair with targets near the estimated marks of 1.1439 and 1.1121, which corresponds to 323.6% and 423.6% of Fibonacci.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The reasons for the collapse of the euro

The softer than expected statements of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi hurt the buyers of the European currency, who were counting on the formation of a new upward medium-term trend.

As you can see from yesterday's report, the ECB does not seek to tighten the policy, and even more so a higher rate of the European currency, which could harm the recovery of the eurozone economy after the disastrous 1st quarter of this year.

Yesterday the Governing Council decided to keep the deposit rate at a negative level of -0.4% until the summer of 2019, which was obviously a surprise for investors and traders who expect an earlier tightening of monetary policy after the completion of the asset purchase program in December this year.

analytics5b236a2459dd0.png

Let me remind you that the ECB will continue to carry out net purchases under the asset repurchase program for 30 billion euros a month until the end of September this year. After September, net purchases of assets will be reduced to €15 billion by the end of December 2018. By early January 2019, it is planned to fully complete the asset buy-back program.

The ECB also tries to prevent undesirable tightening of financial conditions, so as not to harm the economy. This is also reflected in the revision of forecasts for GDP growth.

Judging by the report of the ECB economists, the forecast for GDP growth for 2018 was revised to 2.1% from 2.4%. The expectations of economic growth for 2019 and 2020 remained unchanged. This suggests that the first quarter of this year, which was a failure, had only a temporary pressure on the economy.

As for inflation, which the European regulator worries about, ECB economists have raised their forecasts for this year to 1.7% against 1.4%. Also, forecasts were raised for 2019. The revision was due to the recent rise in oil prices.

Despite all the statements in favor of changing the course of monetary policy in the foreseeable future, the president of the ECB focused on trade relations, which carry a number of risks because of the policy of US President Donald Trump.

Draghi also made it clear that if necessary, the incentive program will be resumed at any time.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the sharp collapse of the euro led to the demolition of a number of major support levels. The stop has so far happened in the area of support 1.1560. The break and consolidation below this range opens up new monthly lows around 1.1490 and 1.1410. If we talk about the short-term upward correction of the euro, then it will be limited to the nearest resistance in the area of 1.1610 and 1.1650.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session on June 15 for the EUR/USD

To open long positions on EURUSD it is required:

The collapse of the euro led to a test of important support levels. Buyers, at least to stop the downward trend, it is necessary to return to the resistance level 1.1574 in the morning, which can cause an upward correction in the area 1.1607 and 1.1644, where it is recommended recording profits. In the event of a further decline in the euro, only a false breakdown on the support of 1.1533 will stop the downward trend. Otherwise, you can buy on a rebound from 1.1482.

To open short positions on EURUSD it is required:

While the trade is below resistance 1.1574, the pressure on the euro will continue, which will lead to new lows in the area of 1.1533 and 1.1482, where today it is recommended recording profits. In the case of growth above 1.1574 in the morning, EUR/USD selling can be seen in the area of 1.1607 and 1.1644.

analytics5b2369b5cd1ee.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session on June 15 for the GBP/USD

To open long positions on GBP/USD it is required:

Buyers of the pound will show themselves in the area of support for 1.3228, but to open long positions immediately on the rebound is best in the area of 1.3202. The main goal for the first half of the day will be the return and fixing on the resistance of 1.3258, which will lead to a small upward correction of 1.3289 and 1.3315.

To open short positions on GBP/USD it is required:

Vendors will try to gain a foothold below the support of 1.3228, which will lead to the formation of a new downward wave in the area of 1.3202 and 1.3146, where it is recommended recording profits. In the case of growth at 1.3258 resistance in the first half of the day, selling of the pound can be resumed on a rebound from 1.3289 and 1.3315.

analytics5b236999911c9.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for June 15, 2018 for the GBP/USD pair

Трендовый анализ (рис. 1).

После движения вниз и тестирования линии поддержки возможно движение вверх с первой целью 1.3374 – откатный уровень 14.6% ( жёлтая пунктирная линия).

gbpusd-d1-instaforex-group-3.png

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candle analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, on the GBP/USD pair, after moving down and testing the support line, it is possible to move up with the first target of 1.3374 - a retracement level of 14.6% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of EUR/USD as of June 15, 2018

We must admit that Mario Draghi did something that no one expected from him. Almost all observers were confident that after the announcement of the results of the meeting of the ECB, the single European currency will be able to improve its position. This confidence was based on the fact that no concrete steps will be taken, and the formulations will be vague and ornate. The fact that investors approached the meeting with fears about a possible extension of the quantitative easing program, and the absence of any specifics will reduce such risks. However, the outcome of the meeting can be characterized quite specifically - the ECB prolongs the program of quantitative easing. Even before the meeting, the ECB's plan was that the quantitative easing program, which currently amounts to 30 billion euros a month, will be in effect until September. However, now it will be in effect until December, however, from October its volume will decrease to 15 billion euros a month. This is nothing more than an extension of the quantitative easing program, and not the first. In other words, the biggest fears became reality. The worst thing is that the ECB is not doing this for the first time, so there are no guarantees that this will not happen again. So it is not surprising that the single European currency was swiftly tumbling down.

The position of the single European currency is further complicated by US statistics, which turned out to be unexpectedly good. In particular, the growth rates of retail sales did not slow down, but accelerated from 4.8% to 5.9%. The number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 53, 000. So, without the ECB's decision to extend the quantitative easing program, the dollar had many reasons for growth.

Today, the single European currency has a chance to improve its affairs somewhat, as the final data on inflation can confirm its growth from 1.2% to 1.9%. Such a rapid rise in inflation can give reason to believe that the ECB will no longer extend the program of quantitative easing. At the same time, the slowdown in industrial production in the US is expected to slow from 3.5% to 2.7%.

Most likely, the euro/dollar pair will rise to 1.1650.

analytics5b23651633864.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 15/06/2018

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged (reference: 0.0%, deposit: -0.4%) in line with expectations, but decided to extend the asset purchase program with a monthly rate of EUR 15 billion from October to the end of December 2018 after which the program will be terminated. It is a slightly hawkish signal, though partially discounted by the market participants.

In line with expectations, the ECB lowered GDP forecasts in 2018 to 2.1% y/y from 2.4%, but maintained estimates for 2019 and 2020. Higher oil prices influenced the inflation projection to 1.7%. in 2018 and 2019 from 1.4% predicted earlier. Although the ECB raised inflation projections (2018 - 1.7% vs 1.4%, 2019 1.7% vs 1.4%), it is still a result much below the target ceiling of 2.0%, which is targeted by ECB Council.

Draghi's assessment of the economic situation has mutually exclusive elements. On the one hand, the ECB president claims that the core strength of the economy has not changed, although he stressed that data weakness may last longer than suggested by new forecasts, especially in some countries may cover the entire second quarter. In addition, Draghi warns against underestimating the existing risks for the outlook business.

During the Q & A series, most of the question concerned the date of the first interest rate increase. Draghi reminded that the ECB only stated that rates would remain unchanged at least until the end of the summer of 2019. The Council did not discuss when to make the first hike. The Council believes that the condition of the economy allows QE to end, but the risks for prospects mandate a gentle policy on interest rates. Draghi says in his own way that the economy is fine, but not so much as to discuss rates.

In conclusion, yesterday's ECB meeting supposed to be a hawkish demonstration of the strength of the European economy and the central bank's plans for the future. As a result, however, the whole situation was read by the market as a mix of uncertainty and dovish signals that led to the breaking of important technical levels in terms of Thursday's session.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The reason for the depreciation of the European currency was the "sale of facts" after the "earlier purchase" of rumors and some key information provided by the central bankers in their remarks. The price has fallen more than 250 pips, from the level of 38% Fibo at 1.1855 to 1.1592. Currently, the price is still trending down despite the oversold market conditions it approaches the technical support at the level of 1.1509. Any violation of this level would only accelerate the sell-off towards the level of 1.4444.

analytics5b23689639ce3.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for June 15, 2018 for the EUR/USD pair

On Thursday, the price rallied down due to the action of scissors two strong news: in the United States raised the interest rate, but in Europe there was no move. The market flew down almost 300 points. The market has gone down nearly 300 points. The price reached the support line of the upward channel 1.1560 and today the probability of the upper rollback is high...

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

Touching the support line for the fourth time gives 70% probability of a rollback of the upper work with the first target 1.1664 - Fibonacci level 14.6% (blue dotted line).

eurusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group-2.p

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candle analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the market will move up with the first target 1.1664 - the Fibonacci level of 14.6% (blue dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trump is ready for a trade war with China

Trump is ready for a trade war with China.

On Thursday, the White House hosted a meeting on new duties on goods from China. Trump approved a list of Chinese goods worth $50 billion, upon which the US will impose duties of 25%.

China immediately announced that it would impose the same amount on duties on goods from the US - in particular, on goods such as soybeans and Boeing aircraft.

Trump previously stated that, in the case of retaliatory measures, China will impose duties on another $100 billion of goods from China.

Thus, Trump and the United States are taking another step towards a trade war.

My opinion: This is a rather stupid decision by Trump.

I will give one argument: Unemployment in the US fell to a multi-year low of 3.8% - and this is without any introduction of import duties from Europe, China, Canada or Mexico.

With today's realities, unemployment of 3.8% is practically full employment - it is impossible to achieve zero unemployment.

If the import of goods imposed by new duties from China will stop- who in the United States will produce these goods? And how much will be the increase in their prices? But inflation is the main risk for the growth of the US economy in the near future - and Trump's trade wars will definitely push inflation.

The second argument against trade wars: the US is one of the main beneficiaries of profits from the growth of world trade - if not the most important. Yes, the US has a large trade deficit - but these calculations do not take into account the profit from the spread of dollars around the world. The US dollar is the main export commodity of the United States, and trade wars, especially if the US is their main initiator is a strong blow to US prestige in the world - and the role of the dollar in world trade.

It would be possible to understand Trump's decisions on duties if the US economy was now in a deep crisis - and unemployment would have been at its maximum - but really this is not at all the case.

It is clear that Trump with his decisions is working out promises to his voters - those not very highly qualified workers in the US who lost their jobs transferred to China and other Asian countries. However, this is a bad example of how to run your programs.

Globalization carries many disadvantages, but there are many more advantages. The struggle against trade deficits is a necessary thing, negotiations and compromises are necessary.

Let's hope that Trump's unilateral, tough steps are only preparing positions before the talks.

If Trump's actions lead to a big trade war - his voters will greatly regret it.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan 06/15/2018

Trading plan 06/15/2018

The general picture: The fall of the European currency should continue.

On Thursday, the second major event of the week - the ECB meeting. The ECB finally announced what it had been waiting for a long time - the ECB is completing the program of pumping markets with liquidity in December 2018. This program has pumped into the markets a massive 2.5 trillion euros and lasted 3.5 years. Thus, the ECB turns to a normal policy for the Central Bank - regulating the economy and markets through changes in rate.

At the same time, the ECB not only failed to raise the zero base rate and the negative deposit rate for banks (-0.4%), but the ECB said it would not raise rates until at least the summer of 2019. This caused the collapse of the euro.

The fact is that the day before the ECB promulgated its decision the world's main Central Bank - the Fed also held its meeting. The Fed, on the contrary, raised the rate by another + 0.25% (to 1.75-2.00%) - the second increase in 2018. Moreover, the Fed promised to raise the rate at least two more times this year - and hinted that there could be a faster rate hike ahead.

Thus, the markets got a very clear picture: the Fed is on the way to raising rates, the ECB is clearly on the spot - the gap in yields in favor of the dollar - we get the decline of the euro.

GBPUSD: The strong drop of the European currency should continue.

Sell the pound on a rebound from the the top: Sell from 1.3300.

analytics5b23511c9e673.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast 06/15/2018

Burning forecast 06/15/2018

The ECB broke the euro.

On Thursday, the ECB announced a decision on monetary policy. The ECB is completing the program of injections into the markets in December this year. At the same time, the ECB said it will not raise rates until at least the summer of 2019, that is, another 12 months. This last decision led to a sharp drop in the euro.

We expect the continuation of the fall of the euro - we sell from the rebound to the top.

Sell the Euro from 1.1650, stop 1.1695, profit 1.1525.

analytics5b234e030955c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 15/06/2018

In March it was announced that Bitcoin will be used in some hotels as a method of payment for the stay of guests who will come to Russia to support national teams at 12 different stadiums in Russia. It is certainly the largest sports event in 2018. Millions of people will come to Russia to watch the game. Hotels in Kaliningrad have announced the acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment for their services.

Hotel owners have signed agreements with BTC payment operators to better meet the fans who will visit there. In the coming day, Kaliningrad will be visited by millions of fans. Hotels in the aforementioned city stated that at the beginning they expect guests from Serbia, Croatia, Morocco, Nigeria, England, Switzerland, Belgium and Spain, which means that there will be many potential Bitcoin users who will come to the stadiums to support their teams.

Hotels in Kaliningrad have partnered with a service provider called Free-Kassa. The hotel chain manager, who made the mentioned agreement with Free-Kassa, notes that interest in trading and making payments via cryptocurrencies has been growing over the past two years and wants to meet the demands of supporters of this form of payment.

Prices in hotels, not only in Kaliningrad but also in other Russian cities hosting fans, soared up to tenfold, compared to the original rates. You can not be surprised because Russia has spent USD 12 billion on this event and is now looking for opportunities to recover at least some of this investment.

A hotel chain that has partnered with Free-Kassa to provide visitors with the option of making payments with Bitcoin, hopes that other hotels will follow suit.

It is not promised that during the World Cup the price of Bitcoin will fall, however, due to its current low price, keeping your cryptocurrencies in the wallet is a better solution. There are many indications that long-awaited increases will soon come, so all breeders will be satisfied with their approach. Nevertheless, the fact of accepting Bitcoin during this football holiday is a good step towards its universal adaptation.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The impulsive bullish scenario has been invalidated. The price has bounced from the level of $6,090 and broke slightly above the local technical resistance at the level of $6,591, but the pull-back is still too small in price and time to be considered as overbalance. The level for overbalance is seen at $6,900 and only when this level of clearly violated, the local low at the level of $6,090 will be considered as a swing low, so the market will rally higher.

analytics5b235f448bf4c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 15/06/2018

USD keeps rallying as a reaction to the hawkish Fed and solid data from the US economy. The currency market yesterday saw massive moves with serious consequences for EUR and USD. The contrast between the Fed's hawkish attitude and the surprisingly dovish position of the ECB gave the impulse to abandon the EUR, and the EUR / USD diverted the market to the appreciation of USD, which did not fully start right after the FOMC decision on Wednesday. In addition, fantastic US retail sales data confirm the optimism of the Federal Reserve.

Overnight the market calms down and realizes less volatility, but the USD slowly continues to rise. Most lose NZD/USD, going down at 0.6950; GBP/USD at 1.3240 is the lowest since May 29. EUR/USD at night remained stable at 1.1560 after yesterday he lost more than 200 pips.

The Chinese stock market feels tensions related to the commercial dispute and Shanghai Composite is losing 0.6% today. Japanese Nikkei is getting better and growing by 0.6%, indirectly with the help of increases in USD/JPY.

USD/JPY analysis for 15/-6/2018:

The Bank of Japan, as expected, maintained the interest rates unchanged at the level of -0.10%. In the statement, the bank indicated the last weakness of inflation, but the outlook for inflation in the future remained unchanged. No surprises were neutral for USD / JPY, but during the session, we see increases in USD / JPY at 110.90 under the influence of broad appreciation of the dollar.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is testing the local high at the level of 110.84 an in a case of a further rally, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 111.39. The strong momentum is pointing upward as well which supports the bullish bias. The immediate support is seen at the level of 110.71.

analytics5b235c8e8b72c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro a daddy's fool

EUR/USD

As a result of yesterday's ECB meeting, the euro fell by 220 points. According to media reports, the ECB has taken a "sensational" decision to reduce asset purchases to its balance sheet (QE program) from the current 30 billion euros a month to 15 billion euros from October to complete the program in December this year. But in reality, nothing has changed for the markets - at any speed the QE program was planned to be completed in December. Of course, simply on this news in other circumstances, the euro could not lose more than two figures, the markets in this decline took into account the previous increase in the rate of the Fed. Moreover, we believe that it was the decision of the Federal Reserve to tighten up policy is the basis of yesterday's powerful market movements. This is a fundamentally important point-to identify the main player, since it is under this scenario that further developments will develop. And this player is the Fed.

Trading volumes were the highest since February of this year-those investors (stop losses) who bought the Euro against the fundamental picture were taken out of the market...

In this regard, the euro will continue to fall with every negative phenomenon in Europe and the world in general, and positive developments in the US. In the US, so far all is well. Retail sales in May increased by 0.8% against the forecast of 0.4%. Underlying sales, excluding cars, added 0.9% against the forecast of 0.5%. Import prices for the same month increased by 0.6% against expectations of 0.5%. Inventories of companies in April increased by the expected 0.3%.

Data on the trade balance for April will be published today in the eurozone. It is expected to fall from 21.2 billion euros to 20.2 billion. The final estimate for May consumer price indices of the eurozone will be released today, with no change expected: 1.1% y/y on the base index and 1.9% y/y on the general CPI.

The US industrial production in May will be released - the forecast is 0.2%. The capacity utilization rate is expected to increase from 78.0% to 78.1%. Another indicator - the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan - for June is expected to increase from 98.0 to 98.5 points.

We are waiting for further decline of the euro. The nearest target is 1.1510, then the range is 1.1430/50. On Tuesday next week, there will be data on the construction of new homes in the US in May, the forecast suggests an increase of 1.4%.

analytics5b2342c43828e.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The pound did all that it could, but it would be better to immediately fall

GBP/USD

In the first half of yesterday, the British pound grew on strong data on retail sales - the May index was 1.3% vs. the expected 0.5% and April's growth was revised upward from 1.6% to 1.8%. The pound added 70 points. Of course, before the ECB meeting, such growth looked risky, while the upcoming data on retail sales in the US was also expected to be good, which turned out to be the case- U.S. retail sales added 0.8% in May against expectations of 0.4%. On the subsequent collapse of the euro, the pound closed the day down by 110 points.

There is no data for the UK today. In the US, industrial production in May will be released, with a growth forecast of 0.2%. The capacity utilization factor is expected to increase from 78.0% to 78.1%. The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for June is expected to increase from 98.0 to 98.5 points. Next week, there will be no important economic data for the UK. On Thursday, the meeting of the Bank of England will take place, the expectations for whichremain neutral.

After overcoming the technical support area 1.3210/60 we are expecting sterling pound at 1.3125.

analytics5b23419495da4.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for June 14, 2018

After breaking below $6,500 area with a daily close yesterday, the price has been quite bullish for the Bitcoin today inside the overall bearish bias. Traders are still unable to express clear sentiment on Bitcoin and the crypto market in light of recent hacker attacks and predictions from certain crypto professionals including Bitcoin developer Willy Woo. The price is expected to push lower towards $5,000 area in the coming days. As for the current scenario, Bitcoin is expected to push lower in the coming days despite today's certain bullish pressure which is viewed as retracement after signals of further downward momentum in the short term.

analytics5b228b2b039b9.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for June 14, 2018

NZD/USD has been quite corrective and volatile recently with no impulsive pressure on either side in light of the recent US positive economic reports and events. Despite downbeat economic reports recently, NZD sustained the gains against USD along the way whereas USD is expected to have an upper hand in the coming days.

Recently, New Zealand FPI report was published with a slight decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.1%. NZ Manufacturing Index report is due tomorrow which previously was at 58.9. So, the future of NZD against USD is quite indecisive for a while.

On the other hand, the FOMC held a policy meeting yesterday, followed by the statement on the key interest rate. The benchmark funds rate was raised to 2.00% from the previous value of 1.75%. Though there has been certain indecision about the impact of the rate hike, after a while USD managed to gain sustainable momentum over CAD. Today, US Core Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 0.9% from the previous value of 0.4% which was expected to be at 0.5%, Retail Sales also increased to 0.8% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, Unemployment Claims decreased to 218k from the previous figure of 222k which was expected to increase to 223k, and Import Prices remained unchanged at 0.6% which was expected to decrease to 0.5%.

As for the current scenario, USD is expected to dominate NZD in the coming days though it has not been able to do it so far. NZD does not have much to offer to sustain the gains against impulsive USD pressure along the way. To sum up, USD is expected to have an upper hand over NZD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bearish after rejecting the bulls throughout the day while residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA in the process. Though certain bullish pressure is still quite active in the market despite the recent positive US economic reports and rate hike. As the price remains below 0.7050 area, the bearish pressure is expected to continue with a target towards 0.6850 support area in the coming days.

analytics5b22891be2e31.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for June 14, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite impulsive, following the bearish bias today after certain indecision with the daily close yesterday. AUD has been recently struggling amid downbeat economic reports, whereas the recent rate hike in the US has been a great push for the currency to gain momentum in the process.

Today, Australia's Employment Change report was published with a decrease to 12.0k from the previous figure of 18.3k which was expected to increase to 18.8k but Unemployment Rate decreased to 5.4% from the previous value of 5.6% which was expected to be at 5.5%. Moreover, MI Inflation Expectation report was published with an increase to 4.2% from the previous value of 3.7%.

On the USD side, yesterday the FOMC held a policy meeting which was followed by the policy statement on the federal funds rate. The benchmark rate was lifted to 2.00% from the previous value of 1.75%. Though there has been certain indecision about the impact of the rate hike, USD managed to gain sustainable momentum over CAD for a while. Today, US Core Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 0.9% from the previous value of 0.4% which was expected to be at 0.5%, Retail Sales also increased to 0.8% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, Unemployment Claims decreased to 218k from the previous figure of 222k which was expected to increase to 223k, and Import Prices remained unchanged at 0.6% which was expected to decrease to 0.5%.

As for the current scenario, USD is expected to gain further momentum in the coming days having backed by the recent positive economic reports followed by the rate hike, whereas AUD is struggling amid mixed economic reports published recently. To sum up, USD is expected to dominate AUD further, whereas certain correction and volatility can be observed along the way.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of support area 0.7500-50. If broken with a daily close, it is expected to push the price much lower towards 0.7350 area in the future. Though there has been certain corrections and volatility along the way but to have impulsive bearish momentum in the future, a break below 0.75 with a daily close is much needed.

analytics5b228662c7bee.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com