Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 13, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance holds at 0.9705. The pair is under pressure below the key resistance at 0.9695, which should limit the upside potential. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum. Even though a continuation of a technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

To conclude, below 0.9705, expect a further decline to 0.9650 and even to 0.9635 in extension.

Graph Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point, present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL at dips, Stop Loss: 0.9705, Take Profit: 0.9650 and 0.9635

Resistance levels: 0.9730, 0.9760, and 0.9800

Support levels: 0.9650, 0.9635, and 0.9610

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for June 13, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook above 139.45. The pair has bounced up after another test of its former declining trend line, which becomes a support role, and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. In addition, 139.45 is playing a key support role, which should limit the downside potential.

As long as this key level is not broken, look for a further upside toward 140.80 and even 141.20 in extension.

Alternatively, if price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, short position is recommended below 140.80 with targets at 141.20 and 141.80.

Graph Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point, present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy : Buy, Stop Loss: 139.45, Take Profit: 140.80

Resistance levels: 140.80, 141.20, and 142.00

Support levels: 139.00,138.60, and 138

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 13, 2017

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NZD/USD moved in the same direction as predicted in yesterday's Analysis. Today the pair is expected to move in the upward direction as far as it is above 0.7190 support. The technical outlook for the pair is bullish as the prices broke above the upper boundary of a symmetric triangle. The rising 50-period moving average suggests that the pair has a potential for a further advance. The relative strength index is mixed with bullish bias.

To sum up, as long as 0.7190 holds on the downside, look for a new rise to 0.7240 and even to 0.7260 in extension.

Strategy: BUY at dips, Stop Loss: 0.7190, Take Profit: 0.7240

Graph Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used for enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7240, 0.7260, and 0.7280

Support levels: 0.7170,0.7150, and 0.7120

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Daily analysis of major pairs for June 13, 2017

EUR/USD: The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish this week, though the market has only moved sideways so far this week. More bearish movement may be witnessed this week, when volatility rises, which would put an end to the current bullish, but that would be when the support lines at 1.1050 and 1.1000 are breached to the downside.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair did not do anything significant on Monday. There would soon be a rise in momentum, as USD could become weak versus other currencies like CHF, AUD and NZD, which means price would go down towards the support levels at 0.9650 and 0.9600. This pair cannot go up unless EUR/USD crashes.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair is currently bouncing upwards in the context of a downtrend. Price tested the accumulation territory at 1.2650 yesterday and it has now gone above the accumulation territory at 1.2700, targeting the distribution territory at 1.2750. This kind of action is normally seen as a rally in the context of a downtrend, which cannot be overridden unless the distribution territory at 1.3000 is overcome.

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USD/JPY: There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart. The outlook on the JPY pairs is bearish for this week, and for this month. Therefore, when there is volatility in the market, it would most probably favor bears, as price is expected to go further southwards, strengthening the existing bullish bias.

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EUR/JPY: This cross pair dropped 150 pips last week, testing the demand zone at 123.00. The market then remained volatile for the rest of the week, and it has remained volatile till now. This is a bear market and price is expected to go more and more southwards.

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Analysis of EUR/USD for June 13, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1214. The trading idea from yesterday is still active. According to the 1H chart, there is a bullish Wolfe Wave pattern, which is a sign that selling looks risky. Also, there is a hidden bullish divergence in the background, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opporutnities. The upward targets are set at 1.1350 and 1.1380.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1230

R2: 1.1255

R3: 1.1275

Support levels:

S1: 1.1185

S2: 1.1165

S3: 1.1140

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for June 13, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2730. Anyway, according to the 4H time frame, I have found potential double bottom formation and bullish Wolfe Wave pattern, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The projected targets according to the Wolfe Wave pattern are set at the price of 1.3000 and 1.3050.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2740

R2: 1.2825

R3: 1.2875

Support levels:

S1: 1.2600

S2: 1.2550

S3: 1.2470

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 13/06/2017

Global macro overview for 13/06/2017:

Interesting comments from German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has hit the financial newswires. In a speech in a G-20 conference in Berlin today, that the ECB must move away from loose monetary policy in a timely manner. Already at this point, the situation needs to return to a more normal state of affairs. Schaeuble emphasizes that normalization is already taking place in the case of the United States and the last remarks from Mario Draghi could have shown a turning point in the ECB's policy. In his view, it is not possible to ignore the risks that lie with the long-held nature of such loose monetary policy. In his view, the ECB needs to adjust its monetary policy, which will be compatible with all Eurozone countries. On the other hand, he points out that he never criticized the ECB and is not the moment to debate who will replace Mario Draghi. Schaeuble also spoke about Brexit, pointing out that he wants the least damage to the European financial system. He believes London will remain an important financial center after the official dismantling. In a case of Greece, Schaeuble said he expects an agreement on Thursday with regard to debt and subsequent tranches of aid.

Last week the ECB has left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.00%, together with Deposit Facility Rate (-0.40%) and Marginal Lending Facility (0.25%), but the dovish tone of the Mario Draghi remarks in the statement and the press conference regarding the tightening the Eurozone monetary policy resulted in moderate EUR depreciation across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market is trading in a tight descending channel, but still, bounces from the technical support zone at the level of 123.26 - 122.53. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 124.06 and if not clearly violated, the bias remains slightly bearish.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 13, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is still moving in a downwards from the level of 0.9733. The bottom price is seen at 0.9620. The trend has rebounded from the bottom of 0.9620 towards the level of 0.9716. So, the strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9733 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9733, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9733 (the level of 0.9733 coincides with a ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9733 so it will be good to sell at 0.9733 with the first target of 0.9620. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9560. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9560. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9803. Overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 13, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of force following a breakout of the top at 0.7122. Since the trend is above this level, the market is still in an uptrend. Furthermore, the trend is still strong above the moving average (100). The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.7122 - 0.7159 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7250. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.7250, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.7305 in order to test the daily resistance 2. On the other hand, if the NZD/USD pair succeeds to break through the support level of 0.7122 today, the market will decline further to 0.7057. It is recommended to set your stop loss at 0.7110.
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Global macro overview for 13/06/2017

Global macro overview for 13/06/2017:

Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins said on Monday that the BoC might discuss whether monetary policy stimulus was still required. According to Wilkins, due to the fact that the economy showed impressive growth, if only a few sectors expand enough to absorb excess capacity, the BoC would need to take appropriate action to meet the inflation target. Moreover, she also said, that Canada, being one of the biggest exporters of oil, managed to adapt to low oil prices and the BoC is encouraged by signs that sources of growth in the economy are broadening. In conclusion, the Bank of Canada's view has been very optimistic lately, but those comments from Wilkins are the most hawkish comments in a long time. It is very possible, that at the next BoC meeting, that is scheduled for July 12, the policymakers might start to follow the Willinks' optimistic point of view and adopt a tightening stance. Nevertheless, the possibility of an immediate rate hike at the next BoC meeting is still rather low and more probable time for a rate hike seems to be at the year end or at the beginning of 2018.

After the comments hit the newswires, the Canadian Dollar strengthened immediately across the board, but it is possible that the market overreacted and just before the FED interest rate decision all the appreciation of the CAD might be erased, especially on the USD-related currency pairs. Nevertheless, in the longer term, the bias might be switched to bullish for CAD.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price is trading close to the technical support at the level of 1.3222, just above the old golden trend line support. The market conditions are oversold and the next resistance is seen at the level of 1.3387.

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Trading plan for 13/06/2017

Trading plan for 13/06/2017:

Overnight the US Dollar strengthened against the pound sterling, Yen, and Euro. EUR/USD fell below 1.1200, GBP/USD is trading below 1.2650 and USD/JPY is struggling above 110.00. Commodity currencies are strong, especially NZD and Canadian Dollar. They continued appreciation after the surprising Monday's hawkish statements from BoC official Wilkins. The sell-off of American tech giants FAANG lost a bit of momentum and this allows for the correction of yesterday's discounts on Asian trading floors (except for Tokyo, where the sellers dominate).

On Tuesday 13th of June, the event calendar is light in important economic releases, but market participants will pay attention to the Consumer Price Index data from the UK, ZEW Economic Sentiment data from Germany and PPI data from the US.

GBP/USD analysis for 13/06/2017:

The Consumer Price Index data are scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and market participants expect the inflation to hold steady at the level of 2.7% on a yearly basis, but decline slightly from 0.5% to 0.2% on a monthly basis. If expectations come true, then it will be another evidence that dark clouds are starting to gather above the post-Brexit British economy. Last bunch of poor economic data, like business confidence, consumer spending, credit card consumption seems to support this view. Moreover, rising headwinds arrive at a precarious juncture for UK Prime Minister Theresa May's government, which lost its majority in the Parliament last week. The setback in political power creates more uncertainty about the Brexit negotiations, which are due to begin later this month. In conclusion, despite the fact that inflation has been accelerating this year and it is still close to a four-year high and even above the Bank of England's 2.0% target, the worse-than-expected reading for today's CPI might just complicate the things even more.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price has already broken below the technical support zone between the levels of 1.2770 - 1.2707, so now this zone will act as resistance. Currently, the price is testing the level of 1.2707 from below in oversold market conditions. Nevertheless, the momentum oscillator is still below the fifty level, so the bias remains to the downside. The next support is seen at the level of 1.2633.

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EUR/USD analysis for 13/06/2017:

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment data are scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT and market participants expect another improvement in the 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone. The ZEW for the whole Eurozone is expected to increase from 35.1 points to 37.1 points and the German ZEW alone is expected to increase from 20.6 points to 21.6 points. The reason behind such a positive sentiment might be backed up by the last week industrial production data and the retail sales data. Moreover, the DAX stock index is trading close to all time highs and the IHS Markit is expecting German GDP growth to trend at around 0.6% on a quarterly basis. In conclusion, today's data are expected to tick up to a two-year high in June 2017.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price is trading above the golden trend line in a tight horizontal range between the levels of 1.1236 - 1.1163. A better-than-expected data might push the price out of the range towards the technical resistance at the level of 1.1236 and the market might even try to test the recent high at the level of 1.1285, but it seems like the good data are now mostly priced in by market participants, so the price might just not react so violently. Moreover, any violation of the golden trend line on a good data will indicate that the bear camp is in control over this market and the next support for the price is at the level of 1.1108.

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Market Snapshot: Silver retraced 50% of the recent up move

The price of Silver has been falling for the last four days and now it reached the 50% Fibo at the level of 16.88. The market conditions are now oversold, so some kind of a corrective bounce is expected to occur from this level. Nevertheless, the overall outlook remains bearish as long as the golden trend line is clearly breached from below in impulsive fashion.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 13, 2017

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 13, 2017

Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for June 13, 2017

The Dollar index continues to point to a bounce towards 98.5-99 and I continue to favor the bullish side. I believe that only after a bounce towards 99 we should look to short the index again.

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Red line - short-term resistance

The Dollar index is trying to break above and remain above the 4-hour Kumo (cloud). Short-term trend has changed to bullish and short-term support is at 97 where the 4-hour kijun-sen is found. Resistance is at 97.50. If broken, we will have started the move to 98.50-99.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index has broken below the weekly Kumo. Weekly trend is bearish. However, I would expect a bounce back inside the Kumo and towards the upper channel boundary or at least the lower cloud boundary at 98. I remain short-term bullish about the Dollar index.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for June 13, 2017

Gold price got rejected off resistance yesterday and is now making new lows. I still expect Gold price to move towards $1,250-45 over the coming days before any upward reversal. I remain long-term bullish looking for $1,400-$1,500.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price remains inside the bearish channel and has broken below the 4-hour Kumo (cloud). Trend is bearish. Support is at $1,250-45. Resistance is at $1,270 and next at $1,277.

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Red line - medium-term support

Black line - Long-term resistance

Blue line - long-term support

Gold weekly chart shows price pulling back off the long-term trend line resistance at $1,300 as we expected last week. This was not the time to break upwards. After this pullback is completed, we should be ready for a big breakout. Important to hold above the weekly cloud at $1,208. I remain longer-term bullish waiting for $1,250-45 to re-enter long.

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AUD/JPY approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

We prepare to sell on major resistance at 83.48 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension) and expect a strong reaction from that level to drive price down to at least 82.80 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below the 91% level where we expect a further drop from.

Correlation analysis: Overall JPY strength is expected today with drops on AUD/JPY and USD/JPY. Furthermore, we expect AUD weakness with a drop on AUD/USD expected too.

Sell below 83.48. Stop loss at 83.93. Take profit at 82.80.

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GBP/USD bouncing up nicely, remain bullish

Price is holding really well above our buying area and forming a nice reversal pattern. We remain bullish looking to buy above major support at 1.2703 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support, bullish divergence) for a push up to at least 1.2886 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

RSI (34) sees major support above the 26% level where we expect a bounce from and also sees bullish divergence signalling that a strong bounce is expected.

Buy above 1.2703. Stop loss at 1.2596. Take profit at 1.2886.

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USD/JPY profit target reached, time to turn bearish with new elements

Price has bounced up perfectly and reached our profit target. We now turn bearish with new elements coming into play. We look to sell below 110.66 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, descending resistance) for a push down to at least 109.14 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below our 96% level where we expect a strong drop from.

Correlation analysis: We're expecting general JPY strength with a drop expected across AUD/JPY and USD/JPY today.

Sell below 110.66. Stop loss at 111.25. Take profit at 109.14.

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