Risk appetite is growing, but soon there may be an excellent reason to sell USD / JPY

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Recently, the dollar caught the palm among the G10 currencies from the Japanese yen, primarily due to the growth of the global risk appetite.

JP Morgan specialists expect that next year, the pair USD / JPY may rise to the level of 125, provided that the spread rates of the US and Japanese debt markets expand by another 30 basis points.

Meanwhile, a consensus forecast of experts polled recently by Bloomberg suggests a reduction of this pair to 107 by the end of 2019.

Credit Agricole, in turn, recommend buying the yen, which is already solidly cheaper against the dollar. They believe that the second quarter was the peak for the American economy. In the future, its growth rate should slow down. In addition, it is expected that next year, the Fed will take a pause in tightening monetary policy, while other central banks will actively raise interest rates. This is likely to force speculators to get rid of the American.

In the meantime, the global risk appetite is growing in anticipation of a settlement of the trade dispute between the United States and the Middle Kingdom. Negotiations between the leaders of the two countries should take place at the G-20 summit in Argentina, which will be held on November 30 - December 1. The lack of a positive result at the end of the meeting can serve as an excellent reason to sell USD / JPY. It is assumed that by this time the pair will reach the area of 114.5-115.5.

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What will happen to the euro

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Chaotic Brexit will turn into big problems not only for the UK but also for the eurozone. The markets finally realized that the correlation of the pound and the euro soared to 0.8, pushing the dollar index to its maximum level in a year and a half. The Theresa May's defeat in the government and parliament is becoming more and more real. In addition, the deadline for the submission by Italy of a new draft budget expires. Both factors indicate a possible deterioration in the political situation. In the conditions of slow growth of the Euro block, the bulls on the main pair can take flight.

The weakness of the Euroblock and the need to support banks in the region will force the ECB to worsen the estimates for the main indicators at a meeting in December. In addition, it will force the regulator's management to revert to the use of LTRO long-term refinancing programs, which should be attributed to the monetary direction. At least, there are such rumors.

At this time, the Fed tightens its policy. Divergence contributes to an increase in the profitability differential of 2-year US and German government securities to 3.5%. For traders, this will be enough. Nomura believes that an active difference game forces a further fall in the euro/dollar pair.

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The bank expects that other European countries will not follow the bad example of Italy.

At the same time, the bank sincerely hopes that the Italian infection will not spread to others, and the slowdown in US economic growth will keep the currency pair euro/dollar from failure. Experts expect consolidation in the region of 1.1 / 1.135, where the main pair has hung in most of 2015-2016.

If the conflict between the Italian authorities and European officials becomes more complicated, the euro is more likely to go down. At the same time, the disorderly Brexit is another story. To return the euro in the framework of 1.15-1.1875, it is necessary to conclude a deal between the UK and the European Union, as well as approval by the government and the Parliament of England. Otherwise, the sterling will fall in tandem with the dollar to 1.2 and traders will see clouds begin to thicken over the euro.

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According to experts, Rome and Brussels will necessarily come into conflict with each other, there is every reason for this. In this scenario, the euro/dollar pair will go down at least to 1.118.

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The story of Italy will end tonight, but Brexit is a bit more complicated.

The European currency is traded in a narrow side channel paired with the US dollar, as many market participants are waiting for what will end the story of Italy and its budget for 2019. Let me remind you that before the end of this day, the Italian government should make significant changes to the updated version of the budget, which will then be submitted to the European Commission for approval.

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However, most economists doubt that any changes will be made, which can significantly complicate the "life" of the European Union and the European Commission. In turn, this will affect the growth prospects of the European currency. The short-term preconditions for a decline in the euro are hardly possible, since the market has already taken into account Italy's refusal to make any changes in the planned budget deficit for the next year.

In turn, the European Commission will continue to maintain a tough stance towards Italy, so as not to allow any other countries to "sow" inside the eurozone about the need to comply with EU rules. Most likely, the European Commission will recommend to apply in relation to Italy the procedure of excessive deficit, which will only exacerbate internal political problems.

While there is an active struggle on the "one front", on the other hand, there remain significant problems with Brexit, which limit the upward potential of the British pound. Negotiators from the European Union and the UK did not come to the conclusion of at least a preliminary agreement, which only aggravates the situation and pushes the option of an increasingly disorderly Brexit forward.

Negotiations will be held until Wednesday evening, but many economists and experts do not see a possible scenario for reaching an agreement in the near future.

It is also necessary to note the beginning of the next round of talks between US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. This is a deal that will be able to ease the tension of trade relations between the two countries. The parties are trying to make the meeting of the heads of China and the United States as comfortable as possible, scheduled for the end of November this year.

As for the fundamental statistics, published in the first half of the day, then attention should be paid to the report on the consumer price index in Germany, which in October reached its highest level in the last five years.

According to the Federal Statistics Bureau of Germany Destatis, the final CPI of Germany in October this year rose by 0.2% compared with the previous month, which fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. Compared to the same period of 2017, the index increased by 2.5%.

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The report indicates that inflation growth is directly related to the acceleration of energy prices, which jumped 8.9% in October compared to the same period of the previous year.

Excluding energy prices, inflation in Germany in October was 1.7%.

Expectations for the economy in Germany rose slightly in November of this year. Despite this, a larger increase in activity in the short term is not predicted. According to the ZEW Research Institute, the index of economic expectations in Germany in November of this year rose to -24.1 points from -24.7 points in October. The institute believes that the main problems are concentrated in the sector of industrial production and retail sales, which will adversely affect the German economy in the 3rd quarter of this year. The current conditions index ZEW in November fell to 58.2 points.

Data from the National Federation of NFIB pointed to the growth of optimism of small business participants in the United States. According to the report, the index of small business optimism in October 2018, reaching 107.4 points after updating the August maximum around 108.8 points. Economists had forecast an index value of 107.9 points.

The British pound rose slightly after the report, which, although it did not meet the expectations of economists, turned out to be better than last month. According to the ILO, claims for unemployment benefits in the UK in October this year increased by 20,000, while the unemployment rate itself was 2.7%. The number of unemployed in the UK from July to September of this year increased by 21,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%.

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The average earnings in the UK for the same period increased by 3.2% after rising by 3.1%, which turned out to be better than economists' forecasts.

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The focus of the week: how will gold and oil behave?

During the start of the trading week, oil prices rose against the background of the fact that Saudi Arabia, the leader of world exports of crude oil, announced its plans to reduce production by 500 thousand barrels per day to stop the sale, which led to a decrease in quotations by 20% for five weeks. However, the cost of a barrel may continue to fall, as traders expect a greater restriction of production by OPEC countries.

Gold is another commodity that can be traded in a declining market during this week, as traders take into account the prospects for a further increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve.

After a sharp rise in the producer price index of America, further growth in consumer inflation and retail sales may strengthen the US dollar, creating additional difficulties for most products whose value is expressed in dollars. In addition to the macroeconomic statistics for the United States, investors will monitor the rate of inflation and Euroblock GDP, the output of which is scheduled for this week.

Although a depressed interest in risk continues to be noted in the energy sector and in the metals market, long-term commodity investors may find refuge in agricultural commodity markets. The formation of signals for the purchase of soybeans, soy products, wheat, cotton, orange juice, and lumber began.

If we talk about oil, the price of Brent rose by more than 1% at the beginning of trading in the Asia-Pacific region. WTI quotes also climbed. Last Friday, November 9, Brent slipped below the support level of $ 70, which is held from May, while WTI fell below the level of March, $ 60.

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Last weekend, Khalid al-Falih, Saudi Arabia's energy minister, announced that in December, oil supplies from the Kingdom would squeeze about 0.5 million barrels per day.

Despite the fact that the statement by the Saudis immediately gave the oil market an impetus, it could still disappoint investors who expect OPEC to reduce supplies to 1 million barrels a day to compensate for the excess supply that resulted from the sanctioned exemptions.

This weekend, Khalid al-Falih sank the meeting of the OPEC Joint Monitoring Committee in Abu Dhabi, during which there was not a hint that the participants of the oil cartel, except for Saudi Arabia, are seeking to limit the supply. At the same time, a decrease in exports by Saudis can be temporary, since the minister called December the traditional period of reducing demand.

It is possible that OPEC missed the opportunity to make a decision and take action, so a decline in production is likely to be on the agenda of the next, more important, policy meeting, which will take place on December 6 in the Austrian capital.

The latest round of OPEC production restrictions began in January last year as a response to the price cut as a result of the shale oil boom in America, which caused a decrease in oil prices to $ 25 per barrel. Despite the fact that the agreement should be valid until the end of this year, the group prematurely ceased supply restrictions, as prices began to rise sharply from the end of 2017. However, the United States is again putting pressure on OPEC's position, as it produces a record of 11.6 million barrels per day.

$ 1,200 gold support can be broken

Support at $ 1,200, which has been a support for gold in the past two months, maybe broken through this week, as data on the state of inflation in America has every chance to confirm the Fed's intention to raise interest rates next month.

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During the year, the regulator raised rates three times and plans to beat the curve next year, as the American economy has recently been showing strong growth.

The increase in rates, as a rule, strengthens the position of the dollar, which is traded in an inverse relationship with gold.

The dollar index, which reflects the strength of the dollar against a basket of six world currencies. The main US trading partners, rose by 0.22% last Friday, closing for the fourth week in a green zone. TD Securities predicts that during this week, gold will lose its appeal as a "refuge", and investors who are convinced of the strength of the US economy will transfer funds into dollars.

On November 9, December gold futures sank 1.3% to $ 1,208.60 per troy ounce, which was the sharpest daily sale since August 15. The session minimum was at the level of 1207.30.

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Record demand for gold recorded in Iran

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According to expert estimates, positive trends were recorded in the gold market in Iran in the third quarter of this year. Demand for gold coins and bars reached a record 21.1 tons, which is the highest figure in the last five years.

In connection with the introduction of new sanctions by the United States and the weakening of the national currency, Iranian citizens are actively buying the yellow metal. Experts believe that this will help them keep their savings. Gold coins and bars are preferred because they are not subject to VAT. According to experts, the gold market in the Middle East is experiencing better times. Compared to the third quarter of 2017, sales of precious metals increased by 144%, and compared with the second quarter of this year, growth was 28%.

In Turkey, the increase in demand for investment gold in the form of ingots and coins is also recorded. The population is concerned about the financial instability in the country and the weakening of the national currency. In August 2018, the price of the yellow metal, estimated in Turkish lira, reached a record high. In this regard, many investors have recorded a profit by selling part of their bars and coins.

In South Africa, according to data for September of this year, the level of gold production declined significantly. Previously, such a sharp decline was noted three years ago, experts underline. According to the South African Bureau of Statistics, in September 2018, 19% less precious metal was mined compared to the same period in 2017. The decrease in the production of the yellow metal in the country is recorded for the sixth month in a row.

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In 2040, the demand for oil will increase significantly - IEA

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According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), by 2040, the global demand for black gold will increase by 11.5 million barrels per day, reaching 106.3 million. Experts consider developing countries to be the catalyst for global growth.

Agency analysts are confident that in the 2030, the leadership among the largest consumers of oil will belong to China. In 2025, the demand for black gold in the Middle Kingdom will increase to 14.9 million barrels per day. In five years, the level of demand will reach 15.7 million barrels per day, and by 2040, 15.8 million barrels per day.

Currently, the primacy of the level of oil consumption remains with the United States. Experts predict that by 2025, the demand for black gold will drop to 17.8 million barrels per day. In five years, it will be reduced to 16.8 million barrels per day, and by 2035, to 15.6 million barrels per day. The IEA also revised its forecast for 2040 upwards by 15.1 million barrels per day.

Agency experts expect a strong increase in oil demand in the countries of the Middle East and India. In 2040, these states will occupy the third and fourth places in terms of consumption of black gold. Analysts do not exclude that after 2030, the countries of the Middle East will take leading positions in the production of petrochemical raw materials.

The IEA also lowered the forecast for black gold demand in Russia. Previously, it was expected to increase to 3.7 million barrels per day, and by 2023, up to 4 million barrels per day. However, agency experts expect a slowdown in growth. In 2025, the demand for oil in the Russian Federation will increase to 3.3 million barrels per day, and in 2035–2040, the figure will remain at 3.2 million barrels per day.

In developed countries, the demand for black gold in 23 years will decline by more than 10 million barrels per day, summarize the IEA.

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EUR / USD dominated by external fundamental background

The dollar index yesterday again updated the annual maximum, reaching 97.52 points. The last time the indicator was in this area at the beginning of last year, when traders were inspired by Trump's intentions to carry out tax reform. To date, the US currency is growing on expectations of an increase in interest rates in December and over the next year.

Strengthening the greenback affects the dynamics of all dollar pairs, and the EUR / USD pair is no exception. Yesterday, the price once again updated the low of the year, dropping to a mark of 1.1217. With all the strength of the American currency, dollar bulls would not have been able to "break through" strong levels of support "alone," here Italy and Brexit are the main drivers of decline.

The technical picture of the pair suggests that the downward movement can be continued. The closest, most powerful support level is 1.1000. The tenth figure is a psychologically important mark, the breakthrough of which will be accompanied by the breakdown of stops and a sharp downward movement (although this impulse may also have a short-term character). In any case, the main stronghold of the pair bears is the "round" level of 1.10. However, this does not mean at all that the price will automatically slide down. In this case, the tenth level can serve as a springboard from which traders will buy a pair. The current dynamics of the pair fully and entirely depends on the external fundamental background.

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Here, the traders should pay attention to the minimal, but still price pullback EUR / USD, which occurred during the Asian session (during the European session, the correction weakened). The European currency has received unexpected support from China. So, it became known last night that Vice-Premier of the State Council of China Liu He is preparing to visit the United States to hold preliminary trade talks with the Americans on the eve of the G-20 summit where Donald Trump and Xi Jinping should meet. It is worth noting that information about the visit of a high-ranking Chinese official is in the nature of rumors and there is no official confirmation of this. There are indirect factors that indicate a high probability of such a scenario. For example, on the eve, Liu He held a telephone conversation with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the parties tried to find common ground in the context of future trade negotiations.

According to the American press, it wasn't possible to do this in a telephone mode. The Chinese insist that the proposals be discussed after the parties agree on the general principles of future "coexistence", that is, cooperation. Washington, in turn, expects direct and concrete proposals from Beijing for the conversation of the leaders to be substantive. Although the parties have different visions of trade negotiations, the fact remains that the United States and China use every opportunity to come to a consensus before the end of November, when the G20 will be held in Argentina.

This fact increased risk-taking in the markets, after which the dollar slowed down its rally, and the European currency was able to demonstrate corrective growth. Also, the EUR / USD pair is affected by the ambiguous Brexit situation. The proximity of the deadline forces traders to succumb to panic, although any encouraging rumor is perceived by the market quite rapidly. For example, yesterday a pair of GBP / USD traded in the range of 100 points, reacting to a contradictory news background. The euro cannot ignore such price flights, so any positive attitude towards Brexit will slow down the decline of the EUR / USD pair, and if the parties do come to an agreement, the euro will quickly return to October levels.

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Thus, the fate of the single currency still depends on external factors. US-China trade relations play a minor role in this regard, while Brexit's prospects have a more significant impact. The Italian problem is already largely "played out" by the market, since Rome's decision was already known on Friday. The level of the budget deficit by the Italians will not be revised, so now it's up to the European Commission, which should announce its decision on November 21. Most likely, the EC will begin a disciplinary procedure, after which Italy will have to pay a substantial fine but this process can take several months.

In summary, it should be noted that the overall fundamental background for the EUR / USD pair is negative, but the risk of price pullback is still great. Over the next day, the fate of the Brexit will be decided. If London and Brussels can agree to hold the November summit, the fundamental picture will change significantly. The dollar bulls will not be able to reverse optimism about Brexit's prospects. If the sides remain in their positions, the southern dynamics of EUR / USD will continue with a new force.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 13. Pound's upside potential is limited.

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Buyers coped with the task set in the first half of the day and entrenched above 1.2888. However, data on the labor market has not yet allowed a large uptrend to form as they turned out to be worse than economists' forecasts. While the trade is conducted above 1.2888, the demand for the pound will be maintained. This will update the upper limit of the side channel located in the 1.2945-50 area, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a decrease in the pound in the second half of the day to the support area of 1.2888, it is best to look closely at long positions from the lower border of the channel 1.2830.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

If I'm not interested, I'm going to make it clear that I'm going to make it. If you can, then you can sell the pound immediately to rebound. It is also a limit to the downward channel (on the green graph).

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade has moved one level from the 30-day and 50-day moving average, which indicates the formation of an upward correction for the pound.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator located at 1.2912 may lead to the formation of a larger upward correction for the pound.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 13. Will news build a wave c

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Wave counting analysis:

During the trading session on November 12, the GBP / USD currency pair dropped another 130 basis points. However, an unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 23.6% according to Fibonacci warns of the pair's readiness to build an upward wave with targets above 32 figures. If this is true, then from the current position, the quotations increase will continue. A breakthrough of 23.6% will indicate the readiness of the instrument to further reduce, and also lead to the need to make adjustments to the current wave counting. As before, the news background on Brexit greatly influences the pair and its wave pattern.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3124 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

1,3256 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2638 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD remains in the process of building an upward set of waves. Now, I am awaiting the completion of building wave b and the beginning of building wave c. Thus, I recommend buying a pair with targets that are above 32 figures. The protective order, below the level of 23.6% Fibonacci. Sales at current levels and with the current wave counting, despite the news background, are too risky.

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The dollar strengthened to a maximum for the first time in 1.5 years as the reaction of the markets

The American currency is gaining momentum. On the eve of the dollar index (DXY), it rose to the maximum mark for the first time since May 2017. At the same time, the EUR / USD pair dropped to its lowest level since June last year.

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As a rule, the strengthening of the dollar negatively affects the dynamics of assets, which happened again. Thus, oil quotes continued the downward movement and updated the local minima.

The precious metals market followed oil. On Monday, the gold fell by 0.3% and silver by 0.85%.

In turn, the US stock indexes completed the upward correction and resumed their fall. Following the results of yesterday's trading session, the S&P 500 lost 2.3% and the Nasdaq almost by 3%. In particular, the securities of Apple Inc. collapsed more than 5%.

There is also tension in emerging markets. Although such a collapse here in August was not observed but these assets do not look promising now.

The experts noted, "It is assumed that in December the US Federal Reserve (FRS) will once again raise the interest rate. It is possible that in the course of the next year the regulator will take a pause, thus avoiding a hard fall in financial markets. However, while it seems that the American Central Bank is ready to go to the end and blow off all the "bubbles" that have accumulated over the past years ".

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for November 13. The pair is ready to descend to the area of 1.1180 - 1.1100

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Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Monday, the EUR / USD currency pair lost another 110 basis points more. Thus, the conclusions remain the same, the construction of the supposed wave 5 of the downward trend section with the targets located near the 161.8% and 200.0% of Fibonacci levels continues. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 161.8% can lead to the completion of the construction of the entire downward trend segment.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1179 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

1.1103 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1499 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair completed the construction of the fourth wave of the downward trend. Thus, now I recommend to continue selling the pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1179 and 1.1103, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% of Fibonacci, since wave 5 still does not look complete. An unsuccessful attempt to break the mark of 1.1103 or close above 1.1248 (127.2% Fibonacci) could be grounds for waiting for the construction of an upward wave.

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The dollar is testing a 16-month high

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The dollar is trading slightly below its 16-month high against a basket of major currencies, still playing out the benefits of investor caution and reduced trader activity caused by political uncertainty in Europe and fears of a global recession.

Recall that investor confidence in the global market was undermined by the fierce trade tensions between the United States and China, concerns over the impasse over Brexit and the confrontation between Rome and the European Union on the Italian budget deficit.

In addition to this, it is believed that the growth of corporate profits in the United States reached a maximum amid rising borrowing costs.

As the dollar rose, bearish sentiment infiltrated the Asian market, while the MSCI index fell 0.87%, trading today at 477.5.

Recall that the US Federal Reserve intends to raise rates by 25 basis points in December of this year, and by the middle of 2019, two more rate increases will follow. All this inspires confidence and allows investors and traders not to doubt the good prospects of the American national currency at least until the end of 2019.

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The pound has reached a 10-day low, and this is not the limit

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On the eve of the pound, it kept at its 10-day lows, as the newly gaining dollar and lower expectations for Brexit pushed traders to sell the British currency.

Under the conditions of unstable trading, the pound sterling fell to its weekly minimum of 1.2827 US dollars per pound, playing back the negative on the prospects for the Brexit deal.

Later, the pound rose by about half a percent from the daily minimum against the background of the publication of the Financial Times report, where, with reference to EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, it was said that the main elements of the deal were ready.

However, the subsequent refusal of these statements by the representative of Prime Minister Theresa May sent the pound back to his 10-day lows.

While some European officials are still determined that the deal between London and Brussels can be reached in the coming weeks, traders and investors still look at the situation much more skeptically.

Industry experts believe that the pound has not yet won back all the possible negatives from delaying the transaction on Brexit, in connection with which the rate of the British national currency may lose even up to 2% in the next two weeks.

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Brexit and the Italian budget are again on the agenda. Hard week for euro and pound

The US dollar continued to strengthen its position against the euro and the British pound amid rising political uncertainty in the eurozone. First of all, we are talking about the unresolved problem with the Brexit agreement, as well as about the Italian budget deficit, which could develop the crisis even more.

Investors trust more to the American economy, where the publication of good economic indicators continues, which maintains the hope of market participants for a further increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve at the end of this year, as well as at the beginning of the next.

This week is very important, as the Brexit negotiations will take place, and the next Italian budget will be submitted to the European Commission, on which will depend on the direction in which the relations between the EU and the Italian populist government will continue to develop. A number of experts believe that Italy should take the necessary actions to solve the problem with the budget deficit. This statement was made yesterday by German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, once again calling on the Italian government to reduce the budget deficit, which they plan to increase next year.

In his opinion, high-debt countries should act more cautiously than other countries.

Returning to the Brexit topic, yesterday, a number of quite interesting statements were made by former Transport Minister Jo Johnson. He resigned last Friday, thereby showing his dissatisfaction with the actions of the current British Prime Minister. In his opinion, Theresa May hides the economic truth of the Brexit plan. Johnson is confident that May's proposal has nothing to do with what was promised to voters in the 2016 referendum when the decision was made on Brexit.

The pound today can be supported by data on changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Expected less growth than last month.

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Speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve System on Monday evening supported the US dollar.

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, said that the economic situation indicates the advisability of a further gradual increase in interest rates in the United States, but after each increase, it is necessary to monitor the economy's response before taking the next step. At the moment, the state of the economy is very good, and there is a basic impetus to a further growth. According to the Fed representative, the committee does its job perfectly in terms of achieving maximum employment and target inflation. The labor market continues to boom, and unemployment is at a level that corresponds to full employment.

However, Daly did not say anything new, different from the statements of her colleagues.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, currently, the downward movement may slow down, as the major players will try to survive the maximum from the current levels and take profits before the important political events that may happen this week. If the support level of 1.1220 is broken, the fall in risky assets will gain a new turnover, which will lead to the update of the new monthly lows of 1.1180 and 1.1120. If the upward correction gains momentum, then the euro can return to the market for new sellers in the resistance area of 1.1305 and 1.1350.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 13, 2018

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Since September, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout above the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090.

On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

As for the bullish DAILY breakout scenario to remain valid, quick bullish breakout above 1.3000 (50% Fibo level) was achieved two weeks ago.

This enhanced a further bullish advance towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where the depicted downtrend came to meet the GBP/USD pair.

Last week, signs of bearish rejection were demonstrated around the price zone of 1.3170-1.3200 (the depicted downtrend).

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted demand-zone of (1.2850-1.2780) where early signs of bullish rejection were recently demonstrated. The price level of 1.2980 is the next bullish destination for the GBP/USD pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.2980-1.3000 is mandatory to allow further bullish advancement towards 1.3150.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of USD/JPY pair for the week of November 13

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

A descending wave model on the chart of the pair is formed from the middle of July, correcting the previous portion of the daily scale trend.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The bearish wave of October 4th develops in the lateral plane. In the structure of the wave, the middle part (B) is nearing completion. The upcoming downside potential (C) is limited to the calculated support.

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

The rising wave from October 26 reached the lower boundary of the powerful resistance zone. Since it is only a correction in a larger wave, its completion is expected within the reversal section.

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Recommended trading strategy:

In the coming weeks, increased volatility in the lateral plane is expected on the chart of the pair. Trading large areas of the schedule is recommended to refrain from trading and wait for the completion of the entire correction.

Resistance zones:

- 114.20 / 114.70

Support areas:

- 111.70 / 111.20

Explanations to the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 13th of November. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Michel Barnier: no agreement with Britain

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -104.8912

The currency pair GBP / USD on Tuesday, November 13, may begin a round of corrective movement, as evidenced by one closed purple bar. The strong oversold of the CCI indicator also indicates that the pair is ready for a correction. The question is how strong it will be. Only disappointing messages continue to come from the UK. Even the next optimistic statements of Theresa May no longer affect the market. This time, the British Prime Minister announced that negotiations were nearing an end, and that both sides wanted to reach an agreement. She noted that "national interests" are in the first place, so the negotiations and drag on. The "deal," according to May, will have to guarantee the UK the ability to enter into trade agreements around the world, as well as establish full control over borders and money. But Michel Barnier, the EU negotiator, said on Monday that an agreement with the UK had not been reached, and that the current progress in the negotiations was not sufficient to convene a new EU summit. Barnier also noted that he is waiting for a new proposal from the British side. As we can see, the parties continue to contradict each other, although they can be understood. Theresa May needs to save her political career, which could end in March 2019, when the time for Britain to leave the EU officially will come. Given the huge dissatisfaction with its policies and negotiations on Brexit, both in parliament and among the population, its attempts to convince everyone with all its might that negotiations are moving forward are very logical and expected.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,2817

S2 - 1.2756

S3 - 1.2695

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2878

R2 - 1.2939

R3 - 1.3000

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues the downward movement with the target of 1.2817. The color of the second bar in purple will be a signal to close the short positions, as in this case, a round of corrective movement to the moving will begin.

Orders for the purchase can be considered no earlier than fixing the price above the MA. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to ascending, and the target for the upward movement will be the level of 1.3062.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for November 13th. The level of 1.13 passed, the way down is open

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair closed below the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1303. As a result, the process of falling quotations continues on November 13 in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1162. Also today, bullish divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator. The education will allow us to count on a turn in favor of the European currency and a return to the Fibo level of 100.0%. Reversal of quotes from the correction level of 127.2% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the pair's growth.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD currency pair consolidated below the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Thus, traders expect a continuation of the reduction of quotations in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 127.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the European currency and count on some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553.

The Fib net is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1303 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 127.2% if the pair bounces the correction level of 1.1162 or after the formation of a bullish divergence with the Stop Loss under its low.

The EUR / USD currency pair can be sold now with a target of 1.1162 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 100.0%, as the pair closed below the correction level of 1.1303 and hold them until a bullish divergence is formed.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 13, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

Recently, Temporary bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.1300. Hence, another bullish pullback was executed towards 1.1499 (the upper limit of the supply zone) where another descending high was established.

As for the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should continue trading below the price zone of 1.1300-1.1275. Initial bearish target would located around 1.1100.

Bearish persistence below 1.1275 is mandatory to allow further bearish decline towards 1.1100.

However, failure to fixate below 1.1275 would enhance the bullish side of the market towards 1.1400 again. Thus, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within a narrow price range (1.1275-1.1400) until breakout occurs.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD on November 13th. The level of 1.2840 kept the pound from further falling

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair first performed a fall to the correctional level of 23.6% - 1.2837, and then a double rebound from it. As a result, a reversal was made in favor of the British currency and growth began in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% - 1.2925. There is no ripening divergence observed on any indicator on November 13th. Fixing a pair of quotes under the Fibo level of 23.6% will work in favor of the American currency and resuming the fall in the direction of the correction level of 0.0% - 1.2697.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and October 30, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, quoting quotes from the Fibo level of 50.0% - 1.2935 allowed the pair to resume the process of falling. Now, the pair has once again made a return to the level of correction (61.8% - 1.2878), which passed earlier. Reversing the quotations from the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to again expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a resumption of decline in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.2809. There is a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator, the formation of which will increase the probability of rebound from the correction level of 61.8%.

The Fib net is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with a target of 1.2935 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 61.8% if the pair closes above 1.2878 (hourly chart).

It will be possible to sell a pair of GBP / USD with the target of 1.2809 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 61.8% if the pair bounces off of the correction level of 1.2878 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 13. Euro buyers are fighting back

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

In the first half of the day, euro buyers failed to gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.1255. However, the expected major sell-off from this level did not happen. In the afternoon, the repeated test of the area of 1.1255 may lead to an increase in the bullish momentum and a breakdown with the update of resistance at 1.1282, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the event of continued pressure on Ethe UR/USD pair, the bulls can count on the formation of a false breakdown in the region of the minimum of last month 1.1215. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions to rebound from 1.1180 and 1.1149.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears managed to keep the pair below the resistance level of 1.1255, which led to a slight downward trend in the first half of the day but failed to continue. he main task remains the breakdown of the minimum of this month in the region of 1.1215, which will collapse the EUR/USD in the area of 1.1180 and 1.1149, where I recommend taking profits. If the euro rises in the second half of the day above resistance 1.1255, short positions can be returned after an unsuccessful fixing above resistance 1.1282 or to rebound from a maximum of 1.1322.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-day average, indicating a further decline in the euro.

Bollinger bands

It has been confirmed that it has reached a rate of 1.1255.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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The growth of the dollar can only stop the "miracle"

On the first day of the new week, the US dollar received significant support in the wake of two reasons. The first can be attributed to high expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates for the fourth time next month, and the second, fear that the world economy has really begun to slow down in its growth.

The final decision of the Fed at a meeting last week made it clear to the markets that we should expect the continuation of the interest rate increase cycle not only in December but also in the next two years. At the moment, according to the dynamics of futures on federal funds rates, this possibility is considered with a probability of 75.8%, which seems to be only growing by December 19, when the meeting itself will take place. These expectations are also supported by the good state of the American economy and the growing wage growth of Americans against the background of a sharp increase in industrial inflation, which was signaled by economic statistics published on Friday.

The dollar rose sharply on Monday because of its function of a safe haven currency. The ICE index overcame a maximum of August 12 of the current year and at the time of this writing is at the level of 97.33 points. The reason for this dynamic is the growing fears among investors that the world economy has begun to give real signals about its slowdown. This process is further aggravated by the trade conflict between the States and China, as well as the growing tensions in Europe due to the EU's unwillingness to accept the Italian budget in the form proposed to it.

In the wake of a number of these factors, the dollar received support against all major currencies, but most noticeably it rose to the euro and the British pound, which became hostages of European problems, Britain's exit from the EU, or rather, the unresolved issue and the risk of a new debt recovery. The crisis in Italy, which was "flooded" with money during the acute phase of the last crisis of 2008–09.

Given this scenario, we believe that the smooth strengthening of the US dollar will continue.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is trading above the level of 1.1220. It remains under pressure and it is likely that its downward trend will continue, after crossing this level, it may fall to 1.1150.

The currency pair GBP / USD is trading below the level of 1.2900. If the pair does not grow above this mark, it should be expected to resume its fall to 1.2800.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for November 13

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the price is near the limit values for the downward structure of November 7, in connection with which, we expect a rollback up. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we are following the development of the downward structure from November 7 and we expect the continuation of the downward movement after the breakdown of 1.2834. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we are following the development of the upward cycle from November 7 and we expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of 1.0111. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we are following the development of the upward trend from October 26 and we expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of 114.21. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 8. At the moment, the potential target is 127.22. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the continuation of the development of the downward structure of November 8 is expected after the breakdown of 145.82.

Forecast for November 13:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1301, 1.1266, 1.1246 and 1.1212. Here, the price is near the limit values for the downward structure of November 7, and therefore, we expect a rollback to the top. The breakdown of the level of 1.1212 will be accompanied by an unstable trend development. In this case, the goals are not defined.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 1.1246 - 1.1266 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1301 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 7, we expect to go into a correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1246 Take profit: 1.1264

Buy 1.1268 Take profit: 1.1300

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2965, 1.2923, 1.2895, 1.2836, 1.2798, 1.2776 and 1.2729. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of November 7. A downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2836. In this case, the target is 1.2798 and in the range of 1.2798 - 1.2776 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.2776 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. In this case, the potential target is 1.2729, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 1.2895 - 1.2923 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2965 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2895 Take profit: 1.2920

Buy: 1.2925 Take profit: 1.2965

Sell: 1.2834 Take profit: 1.2800

Sell: 1.2774 Take profit: 1.2732

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0186, 1.0150, 1.0134, 1.0111, 1.0082, 1.0065 and 1.0043. Here, we are following the rising structure of November 7th. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.0111. In this case, the target is 1.0134 and in the range of 1.0134 - 1.0150 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0186, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.0082 - 1.0065 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.0043.

The main trend is the upward cycle of November 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0111 Take profit: 1.0134

Buy: 1.0152 Take profit: 1.0184

Sell: 1.0082 Take profit: 1.0067

Sell: 1.0063 Take profit: 1.0045

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale are: 115.01, 114.48, 114.21, 113.77, 113.46 and 112.99. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle from October 26. At the moment, the price is in the correction area. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 114.21 - 114.48 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 115.01, after reaching which we expect a downward rollback.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 113.77 - 113.46 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 112.99, up to this level, we expect the initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of October 26, the correction zone.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 114.21 Take profit: 114.46

Buy: 114.50 Take profit: 115.00

Sell: 113.75 Take profit: 113.50

Sell: 113.44 Take profit: 113.15

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3363, 1.3314, 1.3279, 1.3215, 1.3190 and 1.3151. At the moment, we expect to move to the level of 1.3279 and the breakdown of which will lead to a short-term uptrend to the level of 1.3314. In this range is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3363, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3215 - 1.3190, hence a high probability of a reversal upwards. The breakdown of the level of 1.3190 will lead to a prolonged correction. In this case, the target is 1.3151.

The main trend is the local rising structure of November 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3280 Take profit: 1.3312

Buy: 1.3316 Take profit: 1.3360

Sell: 1.3215 Take profit: 1.3194

Sell: 1.3188 Take profit: 1.3155

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7234, 0.7206, 0.7191, 0.7157, 0.7145, 0.7123 and 0.7090. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of November 8. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 0.7157 - 0.7145. In this case, the target is 0.7123 and price consolidation is near this level. A potential value for the downward trend is considered to be the level of 0.7090, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top. The most likely development of the correction is expected from the level of 0.7123.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7191 - 0.7206 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7232 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7191 Take profit: 0.7204

Buy: 0.7208 Take profit: 0.7230

Sell: 0.7145 Take profit: 0.7125

Sell: 0.7120 Take profit: 0.7095

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 128.90, 128.46, 128.03, 127.76, 127.22, 126.95 and 126.41. Here, we are following the downward cycle from November 8. At the moment, we are waiting for the movement to the level of 127.22 and the breakdown of which will lead to a short-term downward movement in the range of 127.22 - 126.95. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 126.41, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 127.76 - 128.03 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 128.46 and this level is the key support for the top. It will have a breakdown to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the goal is 128.90.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 127.76 Take profit: 128.00

Buy: 128.06 Take profit: 128.42

Sell: 127.20 Take profit: 127.00

Sell: 126.95 Take profit: 126.50

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 147.46, 146.90, 146.58, 145.82, 145.22, 144.50 and 143.89. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of November 8. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 145.82. In this case, the target is 145.22 and in the range of 145.82 - 145.22 is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of the level of 145.20 will lead to a pronounced movement to the level of 144.50. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 143.90, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 146.58 - 146.90 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 147.46 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.58 Take profit: 146.90

Buy: 146.95 Take profit: 147.44

Sell: 145.80 Take profit: 145.25

Sell: 145.15 Take profit: 144.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The fall of the euro can accelerate

Eurozone

Eurozone economic prospects continue to deteriorate previously concluded by the Markit group, supported by the German ZEW Institute today. The sentiment survey showed that the index of current economic conditions fell from 70.1p to 58.2p in November. The sentiment index remained almost unchanged at the minimum level for more than 6 years and in the Eurozone as a whole, the mood deteriorated from -19.4p to -22.0p.

The study showed that industrial production, retail, and foreign trade indicate a weak development of Germany in the 3rd quarter. Expectations for the next six months show no improvement and the general trend is negative. It is especially alarming against expectations of the ECB's exit from the economic stimulus program and the first in more than 20 countries. Ten years of the rate hike is expected in the summer or autumn of 2019.

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Rumors in the markets persist that the ECB may start a new round of the LTRO program in the first half of 2019 and the program may start as early as January. This forced step will be aimed at supporting Italy, primarily the banking sector, in order to preserve the single currency, since any scenarios for reducing the expenditure side of the budget are rejected on the peninsula from the threshold. Italy demonstrates decisiveness, hinting at the probability of leaving the eurozone if its requirements are not taken into account.

Today, the revised budget will be sent to the European Commission as reported by Il Sole in the morning that Italy still maintains a deficit of 2.4% but it can adjust its growth target for 2019 from 1.5% to 1.2%. News on the Italian budget may contribute to a new wave of euro sales.

The EUR/USD pair continues to be under pressure Quotes have updated the 16-month low, and there is almost no reason to expect a reversal of the euro. The euro is aimed at a further decline and a withdrawal below 1.12 is likely in the next day. Worsening the dollar's expectations for the euro from a deep fall below 1.10 can save the common currency.

Great Britain

Markets reacted ambiguously to the publication of a report on the labor market in the UK in September. The unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1% and new applications for benefits created 20.2 thousand. Both indicators are worse than expected. At the same time, the average wage increased slightly higher than expected, indicating the risks of rising inflation in the short term and supports the Bank of England plans to raise the rate by a quarter percent in the first half of 2019.

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In any case, the main criterion for assessing the prospects for the pound is not the economy, but politics, since the direction of movement of multi-billion capital flows depends on the solution of the issue on Brexit. It is likely that Frankfurt will be the main focus, that is, a significant part of financial institutions may move from London in order to retain the right to work in the European market, and this will be a bad scenario for the pound since it will lead to a significant drop in its value.

Theresa May tried to smooth out the negative on Monday, stating that negotiations were close to completion. She acknowledged that reaching a compromise solution is an extremely difficult task, nevertheless, the work continues and must be completed since "the people of Britain want Brexit". Even so, the chances of signing an agreement in the near future are minimal and the solution of the question is postponed, most likely until the next EU summit, which will be held on December 13 and 14.

The GBP/USD pair updated the local minimum on Monday and continues to remain under pressure. The immediate support is 1.2745 and then further moved to 1.2695. There is no reason to wait for an upward reversal until the positive news is heard from Brexit, as well as Brussels but not from London.

Oil

Brent went below $ 69 per barrel in effect of Saudi Arabia's plans to cut production by 500 thousand barrels from December. Each day was short-lived. The fall in prices occurs against the background of a strong dollar strengthening across the whole range of currencies but it is unlikely to turn out deep. OPEC + countries intend to hold the pricing process in their hands and decide on a significant reduction in production if the quotes continue to decline.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD pair for the 13th of November. Trading system "Regression Channels". Teresa May - One Warrior in the Field

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -119.6406

On the Tuesday, November 13, the EUR / USD currency pair has been completed on the level of "0/8". Both the European currency and the Sterling pound are under pressure from the market. The rate may not increase again. The US economy has been reeling in recent years. Similarly, the context is the same with Brexit. Yesterday, it would be a second referendum. In his opinion, it would be disadvantageous for both parties. Joe Johnson resigned from the block. 4 more ministers may leave their posts. Once again, they are nearing their final. It's true that it's still a matter of course? It's still a lot of unresolved issues. From a technical point of view, everything is much simpler. The Heiken Ashi indicator is pointing down as well as all trend indicators. Purple-colored 1-2 bars upward correction. It's still a matter of course? It's still a lot of unresolved issues. From a technical point of view, everything is much simpler. The Heiken Ashi indicator is pointing down as well as all trend indicators. Purple-colored 1-2 bars upward correction. It's still a matter of course? It's still a lot of unresolved issues. From a technical point of view, everything is much simpler. The Heiken Ashi indicator is pointing down as well as all trend indicators. Purple-colored 1-2 bars upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1230

S2 - 1.1169

S3 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1-1292

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1414

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has completed the level of 1.1230. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will serve as a signal to manually reduce short positions. Otherwise, the shorts will remain relevant to the goal of 1.1169.

It is recommended to open buy positions not earlier than traders removing moving averages (MA). However, the position of the bulls remain extremely weak and there are still few fundamental reasons for the growth of the euro.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The higher linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. EUR / USD review for the week of November 13

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

From mid-August, the euro major pair forms a "widening triangle", an ascending correctional model of the wrong kind. In the classical theory, this will be an "expanded" or "shifting" plane.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The descending wave of September 24 takes in the larger model placed in the middle part (B).

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

On October 16, a new wave segment started, which looks like a zigzag. The price has reached the zone of potential large-scale reversal.

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Recommended trading strategy:

The potential course of the pair exhausted downward. In the coming days, a change in the price movement vector is expected. It is recommended to track the buy signals of the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1480 / 1.1530

Support areas:

- 1.1200 / 1.1150

Explanations to the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm doesn't take into account the movement of movement over time. To trade a trade transaction, you need to confirm your trading systems!

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Bitcoin analysis for November 13, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found the breakout of the support trendline in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in contorl. I also found the buying climax in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $6.163 and at the price of $6.031.

Support/Resistance

$6.270 – Intraday resistance

$6.163– Intraday support

$6.163 – Objective target 1

$6.031 – Objective target 2

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GBP/USD analysis for November 13, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2884. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found that GBP/USD is in a consolidation phase. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the support trendline 1.2828 to confirm further downward continuation. The trend is bearish and my advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.2700.

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Analysis of Gold for November 13, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,197.54. According to the H1 time – frame, I found strong selling pressure and a breakout of the intraday upward trendline, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find a potential downward target and I got Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of $1,187.20. Watch for selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for November 13, 2018

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.7195. The pair rose from the level of 0.7195 to a top around 0.7302. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7359 followed by 0.7413, while major support is seen at 0.7195 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7245 and 0.7413; so we expect a range of 168 pips in coming hours. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7302, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7302) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7302 with the first target at 0.7359 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7413. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7413 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top on the H1 chart. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7245, a further decline to 0.7195 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 13, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair dropped from the level of 1.1467 to the bottom around 1.1215. But the pair rebounded from the bottom of 1.1215 to close at 1.1230. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.1215, and the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 1.1312, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 1.1215 , the market will decline further to 1.1134 in order to test the weekly support 2. In the H4 time frame, the pair will probably go down because the downtrend is still strong. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1215 with the first target at 1.1170 and further to 1.1134. At the same time, the breakdown of 1.1312 will allow the pair to go further up to the levels of 1.1467 in order to retest the major resistance again.

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