EUR/NZD analysis for September 05, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5550 in an ultra high volume (selling climax) according to the daily time frame. It is still unsafe to buy anything, so watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe weak reaction from buyears (reaction on ultra high volume supply), so buying looks very risky. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels if the price starts a bullish corrective phase. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5656 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5720. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.5550, we may see potential testing the level of 1.5455 (swing low like support)


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5745


R2: 1.5806


R3: 1.5904


Support levels:


S1: 1.5550


S2: 1.5489


S3: 1.5392


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.


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Gold analysis for September 05, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwrads. As we epxected the price tested the level of 1,257.09 in a volume below average according to the 4H time frame. The price tested our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the level of 1,258.00, so be careful when selling at this stage. If the price breaks the level of 1,251.00 in a high volume, we may see more downward movement and potential testing the level of 1,218.00 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). Anyway, Gold may also start a bullish corrective phase, so we must wait and observe price action around our Fibonacci expansion 100%.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,275.84


R2: 1,280.06


R3: 1,286.90


Support levels:


S1: 1,262.16


S2: 1,257.94


S3: 1,251.10


Trading recommendations: Selling at this stage looks risky since our Fibonacci expansion 100% is on the test.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 05, 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5693


R2: 1.5660


R1: 1.5635


Current spot: 1.5624


S1: 1.5596


S2: 1.5572


S3: 1.5544


Technical summary:


The failure to break above resistance at 1.5800 and the break below support at 1.5646 was dissapointing and indicates that an even more complex correction from 1.5899 is unfolding. However, we should still expect strong support near 1.5544 for a break above 1.5635 as the first indication, that a new impulsive rally might be developing. In the short run, we expect resistance at 1.5635 to protect the upside for the final spike lower to 1.5544 form where a new impulsive rally higher should be seen.


Trade recommendation:


We will rebuy EUR at 1.5550 with stop placed at 1.5390.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 05, 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 136.84


R2: 136.61


R1: 136.35


Current spot: 136.27


S1: 136.05


S2: 135.95


S3: 135.73


Technical summary:


The decline from 138.00 has been much stronger than anticipated. The break below 136.41 invalidated the one/two - one /two count and has forced a short-term recount. However, the bullsih count stay valid as long as key support at 135.73 protects the downside. In the short term, we would expect a final spike just below 135.95 closer to 135.73, but not below 135.75 for a break above 136.61 as the first good indication, that the expanded flat wave ii correction is over and a new strong rally to above 138.00 should be expected. However, if key support at 135.73 gives away, the old equality target between wave A and C at 134.34 is revived.


Trading recommendation:


We took a hit with our stop at 136.45. We will re-buy EUR at 135.95 and place our stop+reverse at 135.70.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 5, 2014

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Forecast :



  • According to the previous events, the price of the GBP/USD pair has still been trapped between 1.6367 and 1.6306.

  • The level of 1.6363 represents the daily pivot point. It should be noted that the daily pivot point coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels.

  • Thus, sell below the price of 1.6363 in the short term with the first target of 1.6306 in order to test the double bottom; it might resume to 1.6270 (support) if the trend will be able to break the double bottom at 1.6363.

  • The stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Hence, it will be quite profitable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.6395.


Intraday technical levels :


Date:5/09/2014


Pair:GBP/USD



  • R3: 1.6578

  • R2: 1.6522

  • R1: 1.6419

  • PP: 1.6363

  • S1: 1.6260

  • S2: 1.6204

  • S3: 1.6101


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 5, 2014


Overview :



  • We use historical rates to determine future prices because history will probably repeat itself again. The EUR/USD has broken major support at the price of 1.3003 which represents the daily pivot point. Also, it should be noted that the minor resistance is calculated at 1.2968 (the red horizontal line) and it is now approaching it. Therefore, it will probably start downside movement at this area and recovery again. So, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at level of 1.2968. It will a good sign to sell at this spot with the first target of 1.2919 in order to form the double bottom (the lowest price of yesterday), and continue towards 1.2870. On the other hand, if a break is at the level of 1.3003, then it will be a good location for placing stop loss at 1.3030.


Trading recommendations :



  • According to previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.3003 and 1.2920.

  • Below the price of 1.2968, look for further downside with the 1.2919 and 1.2870 targets.

  • Buy above the daily pivot point 1.3030 with the first target of 1.3064, it might resume to 1.3087.


Note :



  • Use the time frame of M15 to determine the lower and the higher price of yesterday, because it's more precise.


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Gold Technical analysis for September 5, 2014

Gold price remains in a down trend as it made a new lower low yesterday. Gold price is expected to continue lower as it trades below important resistance level of $1,270. The target is at $1,240 for a short term and $1,000 for a longer term.


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Short-term support is found at $1,255 where yesterday's low is. Short-term resistance is found at $1,275-80. Price remains below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. Price is also below the trend line resistance levels while it makes lower lows and lower highs.


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The daily chart remains bearish. Gold price is below the important trend line that connects $1,180 and $1,240. This trend line passed from $1,270 which was broken and back tested. Gold price is also below the Ichimoku cloud with all cloud indicators pointing down at least towards $1,240.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 5, 2014

General overview for 05/09/2014 09:45 CET


The black wave Y has been completed earlier than expected and yesterday's news had caused havoc on the markets, resulting in unfinished downward impulsive progression. Currently, the market is in wave -iv- of a larger cycle green wave (iii), so lower prices are expected. Please, notice that the corrective cycle might go as high as the weekly pivot at the level of 136.89 and then fail and reverse. This possibility has been labeled as an alternative count. However, the first target for the bears is at the level of 135.71.


Support/Resistance:


135.64 - WS2


135.71 - Technical Support


135.96 - Intraday Support | Key Level |


136.24 - WR1


136.59 - Intraday Resistance


136.89 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Sell any upside rally with longer term SL above the level of 138.35. TP is open for now.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 5, 2014

General overview for 05/09/2014 09:15 CET


The corrective cycle might be regarded as completed. The demand zone where buyers are present is between the levels of 1.0809 - 1.0839. Nevertheless, the market is still below the weekly pivot. Besides, breakout higher is needed to confirm that the bullish impulsive wave progression is taking place. Please notice, that any violation of the level of 1.0819 invalidates the impulsive red count and puts the alternative count in play. That means lower prices will be seen with projected target levels at 1.0740.


Support/Resistance:


1.0809 - 1.0839 - Demand Zone


1.0819 - Intraday Support |Invalidation Level |


1.0887 - Weekly Pivot


1.0907 - Intraday Resistance


1.0945 - Intraday Resistance


1.0965 - WR1


Trading recommendations:


Sell orders should still be in play with SL lowered to the level of 1.0940 and TP at the level of 1.0745. However, please notice that the lower time frames are not supporting the current wave progression and any breakout above 1.0940 is bullish, so buy orders should be opened instead.


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Technical Analysis of USD/CHF for August 05, 2014

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The pair held the 50Msma and started moving higher. USD/CHF has short-term support at 0.9175 (50Msma) and 0.9135. On a closing basis, until the price stands above these levels, the pair favors to buying on dips towards 0.94, 0.9456, and 0.95 in the short term. When a break and close is below 0.9135, USD/CHF will look for the nearest support at 0.90 and 0.8975. The pair opened with a minor bullish sign, but the daily and hourly oscillators are indicating that USD/CHF has entered an extremely overbought area. I hope some profit booking is in place. The pair has resistance at 0.9330 for the hourly trading perspective. We recommended selling at the cmp 0.9325. It looks weak below 0.9310. Safe trades can sell below 0.9310 with the targets at 0.9295, 0.9275, 0.9255, and 0.9240.


The pair has strong resistance at 0.94 (200Dema).


Intraday - sell at cmp, safe traders can sell below 0.9310.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 05, 2014

In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Monthly Report and Leading Indicators. The U.S. will publish some economic data such as Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 105.92.

Resistance. 2: 105.71.

Resistance. 1: 105.50.

Support. 1: 105.25.

Support. 2: 105.04.

Support. 3: 104.83. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 05, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Industrial Production m/m and Revised GDP q/q. The US will release the economic data as well such as the Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium to high volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2991.

Strong Resistance:1.2984.

Original Resistance: 1.2971.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2958.

Target Inner Area: 1.2928.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2898.

Original Support: 1.2885.

Strong Support: 1.2872.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2865.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Trading recommendation on crude oil for September 05, 2014

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The oil prices were rejected from the previous week's high, made a high at $95.90 and started looking down. The crude oil has support between $92.56-92. In case of a daily close below 92, the oil extends its downward journey to $90-$88 initially. The medium will crack once the prices break out and close below this for a steep fall to the $81-80 levels. For hourly trading, the prices are closed and trading below the hourly key moving averages. On the higher side, it has resistance at the $94.84, 95.50, and $96.24 levels; on the lower side it has support at the $94, $93.50, and $95.56 levels.


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#USDX Technical analysis for September 5, 2014

The dollar index spiked yesterday following Mario Draghi's comments and the start of quatitative easing in Europe. The second target of 84 has been achieved and a few days of sideways consolidation should be expected before another move higher.


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In yesterday's analysis my final comments were that the trend remains bullish and the next target is at 84. The index reached as high as 83.97 and is likely to make a bullish flag pattern in the 4-hour chart as shown above. The trend remains bullish. A break below 83.70 could push the price lower towards 83.50-83.40.


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After such a huge spike up, the market needs a day or two of sideways action to digest what happened yesterday. The daily chart remains bullish. A trend reversal is still nowhere to be seen as the chart remains bullish with Ichimoku cloud and the red trend line below current market. Next target is the 85 level. Critical daily support is at 82.60.


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Intraday trading recommendations on Gold for September 05, 2014

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The yellow metal opened its session with a bearish bias. The metal started falling from the first tick onwards and hit the nearest support at $1,258.60. At present, it has made a low at $1,257. On the down side, the metal has an open target at the $1,247 and $1,240 levels. The metal continues its theme: selling on rallies until the close above $1,287 (20Dsma) on a positional basis.


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For an intraday session, the h4 RSI is giving positive divergence results with a bit up move chances. The metal has resistance at $1,261 as well as at the $1,264, $1,267, $1,270 and $1,277 levels. The prices are closed and trading below the 12ema and 34 hrsma levels. As a result, selling on every up move mints the money. Sellers can wait for a small pullback to sell again. The h1 and h4 oscillators are extremely oversold.


Sell on every pull back at the $1,250 and $1,247 levels.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Sep 05, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The EUR/JPY pair was on its way higher towards the 139.00 level but reacts sharply lower again towards 136.00. This could still be a test of resistance turned support line and the pair could resume rally higher again. It is recommended to remain long, risk is below 136.00.


2. Support is seen at 135.70/80, followed by 134.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 139.20/30, followed by 140.10/20, and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY could still carve a higher low ahead of 135.70 and continue rally.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below 136.00, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for Sep 05, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/CHf pair reversed earlier from the 1.5250/70 levels as expected. Yesterdays' rally could be defined as a test and next probable move should be lower from here. It is recommended to remain short, risk remains at 1.5450.


2. Support is seen at 1.4970, followed by 1.4760 and lower while resistance remains fixed at the 1.5350 and 1.5450 levels respectively.


3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF could continue drifting lower towards the 1.4850 level at least.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short, stop at 1.5450, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for Sep 05, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Silver is still trying to form bottom around sub $19.00 levels and there is no change in its expected direction for now. The metal needs to bounce from the current levels to enable bulls to take control back. It is still recommended to remain long, risk remains below the $19.00 level.


2. Support is seen at $19.00, followed by $18.60 and lower while resistance is seen at $20.20, followed by $21.70, $22.30, and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Silver still remains constructive for bulls till prices remain above the $18.60 level.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, stop below $19.00, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for Sep 05, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Gold is still searching for a support and bottom formation around the current levels of $1,260.00. The metal needs to react at these levels to confirm a bullish reversal, which is still lacking. It is recommended to remain flat for now and wait for a confirmation before initiating long positions.


2. Support is seen at $1,240.00 and lower levels, while resistance is seen at $1,296.00, followed by $1,325.00, $1,340.00, and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Gold needs to produce/react at the current levels to confirm a bullish reversal.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!


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Technical Analysis of USD/CAD for September 05 , 2014

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The pair drifted and held the support at 50Dsma in the previous day. Twice the 5Dsma gave enough support to push the price to the North. The pair has strong support at 1.0803 for the short term and 1.0856 for the near-term basis. The pair is facing strong resistance at 1.09. We strongly recommend to buy only above this with the targets at the 1.0910, 1.0926, and 1.0940 levels, even 1.0960 is also possible. On the down side, the pair has strong support at 1.08820 for an intraday session. Below this, the pair will face selling pressure up to the 1.0873, 1.0869, and 1.0856 levels. The strong buy will appear above 1.1 for the 1.1068 and 1.111 levels in the short term.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 5, 2014

EUR/USD: This pair tumbled: just like most other EUR pairs. The sudden loss of strength in the EUR has caused the pair to break one support level after the other. The price is currently trading below the resistance level at 1.2950: it may reach another support level at 1.2900.


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USD/CHF: Since this currency trading instrument is negatively correlated to the EUR/USD pair, it is no wonder that the price has gone further north. Really, our target for this has been exceeded and the price may test the resistance level at 0.9350.


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GBP/USD: Generally, this market has fallen by over 300 pips this week. This is a significant bearish market and the price could reach the accumulation territory at 1.6250. The obvious weakness in the GBP and the significant stamina in the USD would ensure that this bearish run continues.


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USD/JPY: This is a bullish market. The price is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The stamina in the USD is a factor in this northward journey and the price may go further upwards to test the supply level at 105.50.


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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair tumbled as a result of sudden and exponential weakness in the EUR. In fact, all EUR pairs have tumbled, and this trend may continue significantly today. The EUR/JPY pair has tested the demand level at 136.00. The next target may be the demand level at 135.50.


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Daily analysis of USDX for September 05, 2014

Daily chart: the USDX has consolidated in a bullish trend above the support level of 83.74. Now, this instrument is likely to start forming a bullish pattern to climb to the resistance level of 84.29. However, if the USDX makes a pullback at the current levels, it would be expected to fall back to the support level of 83.22. MACD is in positive territory


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H4 chart: finally, the USDX has made a bullish breakout in the trend line located near to the 83.25 level. So, the USDX is likely to rise to the resistance level of 8447. However, if the USDX makes a pullback at the level of 84.15, it is expected to fall to the support level of 83.50. The MACD indicator remains in the positive territory.


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H1 chart: the USDX is trying to form a bullish pattern above the support level of 83.73. If the USDX does a breakout from the resistance level of 84.03, the next target would be the 84.37 level. For now, the USDX remains very strong in the bullish trend. The MACD indicator is entering the overbought area.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 82.85, take profit is at 82.97, and stop loss is at 82.72.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 05, 2014

Daily chart: The GBP/USD pair is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6326, as this pair has consolidated below the resistance level of 1.6447. If it succeeds, it would be expected to drop the level of 1.6235, which would be a bearish consolidation below the 200 SMA and lead the GBP/USD to remain bearish in the medium term. The MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.


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H4 chart: this pair is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.6435. So, the next target for the GBP/USD pair would be the support level of 1.6247. If the GBP / USD manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 1.6004. For now, this pair remains below the 200 day moving average and the MACD indicator is still in the negative territory.


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H1 chart: GBP/USD had a steep fall from the resistance level of 1.6464. Now, this pair is trying to form a bearish pattern below the resistance level of 1.6338. If the GBP / USD pair manages to make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the support level of 1.6252. The MACD indicator is entering the oversold zone.


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6578, take profit is at 1.6544, and stop loss is at 1.6611.


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