Simplified wave analysis GOLD for the week of November 30

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

From mid-August, the gold price movement vector has changed to ascending. The rise of the course is expected at least to the calculated resistance.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The last wave construction was the downward stretch of October 15. By mid-November, the wave was fully completed.

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

On the graph, from November 13, the formation of the ascending wave continues. A high wave level indicates a rapid transition movement to a larger scale of movement. The structure lacks the final part (C).

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Recommended trading strategy:

On the upcoming price increase in gold, short-term trading style advocates can earn. Conditions for a longer period investments have not yet been created.

Resistance zones:

- 1260.0 / 1265.0

Support areas:

- 1220.0 / 1215.0

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Review of the foreign exchange market on 30.11.2018

Again, Brexit has become the determining factor in the foreign exchange market. True, it only affected the pound. Theresa May commented on the situation with the upcoming vote in the British Parliament, as there are strong fears that the agreement will be blocked. In particular, she said that if the parliamentarians rejected the version of the agreement already approved by the European Union, there would be no other option. In this case, the UK will leave the European Union without any agreement. Also, when asked about the absence of any references to trade in the current version of the agreement, the Prime Minister said that negotiations on this issue continue and that, of course, it would be possible to keep duty-free trade but for this a number of European countries still need to be convinced. True, she did not specify which countries in question. But this reservation points out what they said immediately after the referendum, wherein there are quite a few countries in Europe who want to take advantage of the situation for their own purposes and try to limit the activities of British companies on the continent.

Let me remind you that the head of the Bank of England predicted disastrous consequences for the British economy in the absence of a trade agreement with Europe. So it is not surprising that after such revelations the pound immediately flew down. And even the growth in the number of approved mortgage applications from 65,726 to 67,086 did not prevent this. who want to take advantage of the situation for their own purposes and try to limit the activities of British companies on the continent. The purpose of such actions is to increase their own market share. Well, after these words of the Prime Minister, everyone immediately remembered that just a day before Mark Carney had spoken.

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But with the euro everything is a little different, since the words of Theresa May confirmed the thought that the absence of any agreements on trade for Europe itself is very beneficial. American statistics also contributed, although personal incomes grew by 0.5% and expenses by 0.6%. The whole thing is in applications for unemployment benefits, as the number of primary has increased by 10 thousand and repeated ones by 50 thousand. Although the single European currency could have grown even more if it were not for the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. As expected, the Fed once again confirmed its plans to raise the refinancing rate in December and three more increases in the coming year. Although everyone already knows this, yet another confirmation and even officially, of course, gives optimism.

Today, all attention is only to preliminary data on inflation in Europe, on which a lot depends. The fact is that Mario Draghi, and other representatives of the European Central Bank, have lately been increasingly talking about all sorts of risks and other troubles. But officially, no one even stutters about the fate of the program of quantitative easing, the decision on which they were closing down was promised to be taken during the December meeting. It seems that the ECB is preparing the public for the next extension of the quantitative easing program, and if inflation slows down from 2.2% to 2.0%, then Mario Draghi will have quite a decent reason to break his promise to curtail the program. So it is worth waiting for the decline of the single European currency to 1.1325.

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In the UK, they will continue to discuss Brexit and its consequences, but after only two days after officials have spoken so much of everything negative, it's worth waiting for some respite. What can support the pound, which has good chances to grow to 1.2800.

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Fed signaled a change in the rate of interest rates in 2019

The Federal Reserve led by chairman Jerome Powell does not please traders and investors at all at the end of this year.

Either the recent statements by the US President Donald Trump influenced the Fed or the committee actually thought about the future growth prospects of the American economy, but the fact remains a fact.

The minutes of the November Fed meeting signal that interest rates will be raised "pretty soon," but several executives expressed uncertainty about the timing of further rate increases. In the future, this may significantly affect the prospects for strengthening the US dollar, an upward trend in which may come to an end in the first half of next year, as major traders and investors will more closely monitor changes in the policy of the European Central Bank.

Let me remind you that the American leader has repeatedly criticized the Fed for the excessively rapid increase in interest rates, which hinders the development of the country's economy. Donald Trump had it particularly tough in expressing himself as he indulged himself in relation to the current Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell.

The protocols noted that the wording of the Fed's statement on the further gradual increase in interest rates may soon change. Now, the new statements of the committee regarding monetary policy will emphasize the importance of incoming economic data.

In the minutes of the November meeting, Fed leaders disagreed on the potential for further growth in the share of the economically active population. However, according to many managers, wage growth is consistent with trends in productivity and inflation.

Some executives felt that a stronger dollar posed a downside risk to growth and inflation in the United States, but almost all agreed that the risks to the outlook for the economy were generally balanced.

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As for the forecasts of Fed experts, they almost did not change in terms of GDP growth in 2018. However, a slower economic growth is expected in the medium term.

Recent growth figures for the US economy are very impressed. According to another estimate in the third quarter of this year, the US GDP grew by 3.5% per annum, while economists expected the economy to show an increase of 3.6%. The data coincided with the expectations of the Ministry of Commerce.

As for the technical picture of a pair of the EUR/USD pair, the upward potential is maintained fairly high but currency pair bulls need a large sample resistance around 1.1400. Only after that can we expect a continuation of the uptrend to the highs of 1.1440 and 1.1470. In the case of a downward correction, which was observed yesterday in the first half of the day, it is best to return to long positions in risky assets from levels of 1.1355 and 1.1320.

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Dollar predicted a multi-year decline

Experts of the investment company, JPMorgan Asset Management, believe that the US currency may be on the verge of many years of decline.

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"In the second half of next year, we will probably see a fall in the dollar. This will happen if the Fed really takes a pause in the cycle of rising interest rates, the pace of growth in US GDP slows down, and the state of the global economy stabilizes or slightly improves, "the experts said.

"However, more cautious steps by the regulator, a slowdown in economic growth in the United States and a tightening of monetary policy by other central banks are likely to result in the dollar completing 2019 at the same level as this year, or even lower," they added.

"If the rate of increase in US GDP slows down to 2% and remains at this level for quite a long time, then in such a scenario, a decline in the dollar could become multi-year," said analysts.

"At the same time, we assume that people in search of a safe haven will rush to buy dollars if the US economy slips into recession amid another global crisis," they said.

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Markets focus on the the beginning of the G20 summit today

The foreign exchange market has practically stopped waiting for the start of the G20 summit since too much is associated with its outcome. The central event for world markets on the sidelines of the summit will, of course, be the meeting of the leaders of the United States and China.

Earlier this month, US President D. Trump announced that he would make a very attractive selling proposition to the Chinese. This triggered a wave of optimism among investors, who began to hope that the new trade agreement between Washington and Beijing would reduce the risks of pressure on world economic growth, which would allow market players to continue playing to raise the value of assets. But in the middle of the month, a conflict occurred again between the Americans and the Chinese. This has caused a fair increase in market participants' fears that a possible deal already at the meeting in Buenos Aires at the ASEAN summit, which starts today but may fail.

In anticipation of these events, the foreign exchange market has practically stopped, since so much will depend on it. It can be argued that if an agreement is reached that really reduces tensions in trade relations between countries, and if it promotes the expansion of trade relations, this will undoubtedly be a breakthrough and will support the demand for risky assets.

Another scenario is the complete lack of agreement but despite the "drawn" optimism of Donald Trump, it can happen. The American president needs a radial change in the trade balance between the United States and China, so he will be satisfied with the option of at least a small improvement in favor of America. Yet the question arises, will the Chinese go for it? After all, their economic success was largely based on the fact that, to put it simply, they were in a better position, earning in production for American companies and in trade. In the event of a complete failure of the negotiations, we can expect the resumption of the fall in the stock markets in the world and appreciation of the dollar as a currency of refuge, as new trade duties will come into force both from the United States and China since the new year.

But another option is also possible when a certain option will be adopted that will either delay the introduction of new trade duties for some time, or an extremely soft, but essentially meaningless agreement that will simply postpone this problem for some time. In our opinion, this option will also be bad for the markets, since the suspension will only increase the uncertainty factor. In this situation, defensive assets will again be in demand and, probably, the dollar will also be among them.

We expect that today before the summit, the foreign exchange market will consolidate in a narrow range.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is likely to consolidate today in the range of 1.1345-1.1460.

The AUD / USD pair is likely to consolidate today in the range of 0.7260-0.7345.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 30, 2018

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On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. Since then, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish under the depicted daily downtrend.

On the H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where another descending high around the depicted downtrend was established.

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted consolidation-zone of (1.2750-1.2880) where the current sideway movement within the depicted H4 channel was initiated.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the current consolidation range).

Moreover, bearish persistence below 1.2790 (79.8% Fibonacci level) allowed a quick bearish decline to occur towards the price zone around 1.2750-1.2730.

The current scenario may pursue a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2730 is maintained on a daily basis. Projected target for the bearish flag continuation pattern is initially located around 1.2600.

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the European session on November 30. Fed Chairman can slow down with rising interest rates in the

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The demand for the euro may continue at the end of the month, but one can hardly expect a strong strengthening of the pair. Everything will depend on the data on inflation in the euro area, which is expected in the morning. The breakthrough of 1.1400 will be a signal to buy euros in order to reach a new weekly maximum in the area of 1.1433 and 1.1471, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of EUR / USD decline in the first half of the day, purchases can be viewed on a false breakdown from the support of 1.1365 or a rebound from 1.1317.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Only the formation of a false breakdown and a return below the level of 1.1400 may call into question the continuation of the upward trend in the euro, which will be kind of a sell signal in order to update support for 1.1365. However, the main goal of bears remains to be the level of 1.1317. The fall to which can only occur after a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.1365. If the EUR / USD pair rises in the first half of the day above the resistance of 1.1400, I recommend returning to short positions after updating the highs around 1.1433 and 1.1471.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the continuation of the downtrend formation. In the case of a downward correction of the euro, the 50-day average will provide good support, a test of which allows buying immediately the euro to rebound.

Bollinger bands

The upward trend in EUR / USD may be limited by the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the 1.1410 area. In the event of a decline in the euro in the first half of the day, support will be provided by the bottom line of the indicator in the area of 1.1365, from where you can buy immediately to rebound.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the European session on November 30. Bank of England supported the Brexit agreement

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

A lot was said yesterday that the Bank of England was in favor of the Brexit agreement, but this did not help the British pound to strengthen its position against the US dollar. At the moment, buyers need a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2795, which will lead to a larger upward correction and the return of the pair near the upper boundary of the side channel 1.2847. Also, long positions can be viewed when forming a false breakdown in the area of intermediate support at 1.2759. In the case of a large fall of the pound, you can return to purchases from the low of the month at 1.2721 or from the new levels of 1.2663 and 1.2625.

To open short positions on GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears have to rely on a breakthrough of support at 1.2759, which will open a direct path to the area of the large level 1.2721, which has been repeatedly tested by sellers of the pound. Its breakdown will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD pair with the updating of monthly lows in the area of 1.2663 and 1.2625, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of growth above 1.2795 in the first half of the day, it is best to return to sales of the pound to rebound from the upper limit of the side channel at 1.2847.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.2759 will lead to a further fall of the British pound.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 30, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a highly possible Head and Shoulders reversal pattern, where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish movement is maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel, as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Quick bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.1420. It should be noted that prominent supply zone, as well as the previous wave high are located around 1.1420-1.1520.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market demonstrated significant bearish rejection (shooting-star weekly candlestick).

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure below 1.1420. The nearest demand level to meet the pair is located around 1.1270 (upper limit of the demand zone) and 1.1170 (the lower limit of the depicted channel).

Thus, the pair remains trapped between 1.1420 and 1.1270 until a breakout occurs in either directions.

A quick bearish decline was expected towards 1.1270 and probably the price zone of 1.1170-1.1150 would be visited soon if early bearish breakout below 1.1270 is achieved on lower time frames.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 30, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, BTC did break the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern (bearish) which is a sign that sellers took control from buyers, and there is a change in short-term trend dynamic. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of $3,772 and at the price of $3,512.

Support/Resistance

$4,077– Intraday resistance

$3,915– Intraday support

$3,772 – Objective target 1

$3,512 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair on November 30, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the upward movement with the first goal of 12831 at a recoil level of 23.6% - (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - top;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the upward movement with the first goal of 12831 at a recoil level of 23.6% - (yellow dotted line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for EUR / USD pair on November 30, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, it is possible to continue the upward movement, if only the price overcomes the 1.1393 recoil level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line). Otherwise, there will be a downward recoil.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, it is possible to continue the upward movement with the first goal of 1.1393 at the recoil level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line). When you break through this level, you can try to continue working upward. Otherwise, there will be a downward recoil from this level.

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AUD/USD analysis for November 30, 2018

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Recently, the AUD/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 0.7300. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I have found confirmed intraday head and shoulders pattern (bearish), which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 0.7252.

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Simplified wave analysis of EUR / JPY pair for the week of November 30

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

The rising wave construction of May 29th has completed the daily scale downward trend. A preliminary calculation allows us to expect a growth rate of at least 8 price figures.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The descending wave of September 21 in the structure of the larger wave model took the place of the middle part (B). There is a high probability that the wave has already been completed but has not yet confirmed the reversal.

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

The rise in prices that began on October 26 may be the beginning of a new wave formation, as well as a continuation of the correction of the H4 model.

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Recommended trading strategy:

This week is expected to increase in price. The area of resistance is expected to reach the nearest settlement zone of resistance. Proponents of a short-term trading style can take advantage of this.

Resistance zones:

- 131.20 / 131.70

Support areas:

- 128.30 / 127.80

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for November 30, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,221.60. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I have found a confirmed intraday head and shoulders pattern (bearish), which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found rejection from strong supply cluster in the background at the price of $1,228.00, which is another sign of weakness. Watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,215.00 and at the price of $1,211.25.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for November 30, 2018

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair continue to trade upwards from the level of 0.7242. The pair rose from the level of 0.7242 to a top around 0.7299 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 0.7242. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7299 followed by 0.7352, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7185 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7250 and 0.7352; so we expect a range of 102 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7299, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7299) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7299 with the first target at 0.7352 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7394. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7394 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7185, a further decline to 0.7069 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 30, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 1.0142 or heigher. The USD/CHF pair continue to trade upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and continue towards 1.0216. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9860.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 30, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.6705, then this scenario may become invalidated.

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Forecast for EUR / USD pair on November 30, 2018

EUR / USD pair

On Thursday the euro closed the day with an increase of 26 points. Trading volumes were high and there was a struggle between sellers and buyers. The buyers were exhausted. Now there may be a struggle to work out the nearest target of 1.4444, the MACD line on the daily chart (1.1490) may already be the unattainable goal of the bulls.

Personal incomes of consumers in the US increased by 0.5% in October against expectations of 0.4% while personal expenses increased by 0.6% against the forecast of 0.4%. As a result, the Atlanta Fed has raised its 4th quarter GDP forecast from 2.5% to 2.6%. With the reduction, data on unfinished sales of -2.6% in the secondary real estate market in October came out, but the data are only corrective against the background of production growth.

Today, the eurozone CPI in November will be released with a forecast of 2.1% y/y against 2.2% y/y in October. The unemployment rate in the eurozone could drop from 8.1% to 8.0%. In the US, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Chicago region is expected to rise from 58.4 to 58.5.

Fixing the price under the MACD line on the four-hour chart (1.1360) will return the euro in a downward trend to 1.1267 and further to 1.1190.

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Forecast for GBP / USD on November 30, 2018

GBP / USD pair

Yesterday, the British pound was unable to fully consolidate above the support of the balance line and the Krusenstern line on the H4 chart. The described scenario by the head of the Central Bank, Mark Carni, about a 25% drop in the pound in the event of disorderly Brexit did not so much frighten investors, but instead gave them strength in suppressing the previous bull attack. Investors know that Carney is always exaggerating on this topic.

The pound is left to consolidate below the trend line of the price channel at 1.2765 and opens again the path to the downward trend line of the price channel (1.2550).

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 30, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair fell from the level of 1.2890 towards 1.2780. Now, the price is set at 1.2850. On the H1 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.2890 and 1.3001. Volatility is very high for that the GBP/USD pair is still expected to be moving between 1.2829 and 1.2725 in coming hours. In the short term, we expect the GBP/USD pair to continue to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2725 to form a bullish channel. Also, it should be noted that major resistance is seen at 1.2829, while immediate resistance is found at 1.2829. According to the previous events, the pair is likely to move from 1.2725 towards 1.2829 and 1.2890 as targets. In the H4 time frame: However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.2890, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2890. So, the market will decline further to 1.2725 in order to return to the daily support. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.2640.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on November 30, 2018

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar took advantage of the favorable situation, finding that the bear investors were busy fighting the energetic buyers of the euro and the pound and overcame the resistance of the upper boundary of the price channel. Over the past two days, there was an increase of 94 points. The price channel has now become wider. On the daily scale, a double price divergence with the Marlin oscillator has formed. We believe that this moment reversal will not be false. If the price drops below the MACD line on a four-hour chart (0.7268), a further price reduction to support the nested line of the price channel by 0.7243 will not take long. But overcoming this line will already be fraught with difficulties since it will be reinforced by a daily scale balance line (red indicator). Next, the price will have to overcome the support range of 0.7165 / 85 and then you can aim at 0.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZDJPY for November 30, 2018

NZD/JPY has been quite volatile at the edge of 77.50 area while pushing higher since bouncing off 72.50 area earlier. Amid downbeat economic reports from New Zealand, NZD is currently struggling to sustain the bullish momentum over JPY which might lead to certain counter in the process.

NZD has been weakened by recent economic data. Risk aversion is expressed by the authorities of RBNZ which also determines market sentiment on NZD. Recently New Zealand Retail Sales report was published with a decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 1.1% which was expected to be at 1.0%, Trade Balance increased to -1,295M from the previous value of -1,596M which failed to meet the expectation for an increase to -850M and ANZ Business Confidence report was published unchanged at 37.1. Moreover, RBNZ Financial Stability Report and RBNZ Governor Orr spoke about the ease of New Zealand's financial system risks that is expected to lead to better financial position of the country. Today Business Confidence report was published with an increase to 1.5% from the previous value of -1.3%.

On the other hand, on the back of positive reports from Japan JPY gained momentum, defending against NZD bulls quite well. Recently Japan's Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 3.5% from the previous value of 2.2% which was expected to be at 2.7%. Today Tokyo Core CPI report was published unchanged at 1.0% which was expected to increase to 1.1%, Unemployment Rate increased to 2.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.3%, and Prelim Industrial Production increased to 2.9% from the previous value of -0.4% which was expected to be at 1.3%. Additionally, Consumer Confidence report is yet to be published today which is expected to edge up to 43.3 from the previous figure of 43.0 and Housing Starts is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous negative value of -1.5%.

Meanwhile, JPY is holding the upper hand over NZD despite mixed economic data and optimistic expectations of pending reports, though deeper pullback could happen along the way. Until New Zealand comes up with better economic data or news, JPY is expected to lead the way with a bearish counter-move in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been bearish with the recent daily close after breaking above 77.50 area with a daily close. As for the current price formation, it is expected to push lower towards 77.00 area having a Bearish Regular Divergence which might lead to a further downward movement towards 75.50 support area in the coming days. As the trend is quite strong with the bullish momentum, there are certain chances of the price to bounce back higher after retracing towards 77.00 area where the dynamic level of 20 EMA lies. As the price remains above 75.00 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 75.00-50, 76.50, 77.50

RESISTANCE: 78.50, 80.00

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Trading plan for 30/11/2018

Overnight the markets went into a flat drift in anticipation of the outcome of the Trump / Xi meeting at the G20 summit. The currency market the USD stays close to the minima achieved after dovish comments by the Fed's chief on Wednesday. The stock market makes modest profits.

EUR / USD spent the night near 1.1390, USD / JPY at 113.40, and GBP / USD at 1.2780. The volatility was very low. Most of the ordering of positions at the end of the month has already been made on the market.

The stock market also has an atmosphere of anticipation and hope for a compromise on trade issues between the US and China. Shanghai Composite is growing 0.7 percent today, and Japanese Nikkei225 has gained 0.4 percent.

On Friday, the last day of November, the event calendar is rich in important data releases, including German Retail Sales data, Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer data, Consumer Price Index from the Eurozone, Canadian GDP and Chicago Purchasing Managers Index data from the US. Moreover, there is a scheduled speech from FOMC Member John C. Williams.

USD/CAD analysis for 30/11/2018:

The market participants expect the Canadian GDP figures at the level of 0.1%, which exactly the same figure as in the last month. However, on the yearly basis, there is an expected decrease from 2.5% to 2.3%, so any improvement will be a big surprise for the markets and would make the CAD to appreciate across the board.

GDP is a significant report in FX Market, serving as one of the primary indicators of a country's overall economic health.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may prompt monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus positive GDP readings are generally bullish for the Canadian Dollar, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Most production reports that lead to Canadian GDP are released before the official GDP number. Therefore, actual GDP figures usually confirm expectations. However, an unexpected release can move markets due to the significance of the figure.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is making higher highs and higher lows, so the trend is still up. The price is trading above the dashed violet trend line, which will act as a dynamic support around the level of 1.3180. Nevertheless, the nearest support is seen at the level of 1.3241 and there is still a change for bulls to move higher towards the technical resistance at the level of 1.3359. If this level is cleared, then the next target is the swing high at the level of 1.3385.

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Global macro overview for 30/11/2018

During the Thursday session, the global investors got to know minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) after their meeting on November 8, during which no decision was made to raise interest rates. Representatives of the Committee are convinced that this will take place "relatively quickly", so for the market, it means December this year and is undoubtedly a hawkish statement. However, the probability of this increase has long been discounted and is "included in the price" of the US dollar. What's more, in favor of the doves is also the fact that during subsequent meetings, FOMC members want to put more emphasis on the assessment of macroeconomic data coming from the market when making decisions on interest rate increases. Concerns were also expressed about the current, quite high rate of interest rate growth.

Publication of the FOMC protocols was closely followed by the market, inter alia, due to yesterday's speech of the President of the FED, Jerome Powell. No one expected the dovish overtones of his speech. It can be concluded that the Fed may start the process of normalization of monetary policy next year: "Interest rates are still low by historical standards, but they are only slightly under the broad spectrum of forecasts for the level of neutral rates for the economy," Powell said. The head of the FED hardly mentioned the gradual rate hike, and when he did, he spoke in the past tense.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market did not react much to the news as the price has entered the horizontal zone seen between the levels of 96.67 - 97.03 and remained there since the event. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 96.32, just below the dashed violet trend line support. On the other hand, the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 97.03 and if violated, then the uptrend might resume and the bulls will target the level of 97.56. Momentum remains neutral, but the oversold market conditions support the short-term bullish outlook.

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Bitcoin analysis for 30/11/2018

The Amazon technological giant launches the Blockchain service, which is to help clients develop Blockchain networks without incurring the costs of creating their own platform. Announced at the Amazon Re: Invent, Amazon Managed Blockchain is a fully managed service that facilitates the creation and management of scalable Blockchain networks. Users can build platforms using Hyperledger Fabric or Ethereum, although the latter is not yet available. The new platform is another aspect of Amazon Web Services, Amazon's cloud-based subsidiary that supports many websites and services, including platforms such as Netflix: "Amazon Managed Blockchain eliminates the costs necessary to create a network and automatically scales to meet the requirements of thousands of applications that execute millions of transactions" - informs the website of the product.

In addition, the company announced that the Blockchain platform can store data on another database product, saying: "The managed Blockchain network can replicate the unchangeable copy of Blockchain activity to the Amazon Quantum Ledger Database (QLDB), a fully managed database registry. This allows for easy analysis of off-network activities and getting insight into trends". QLDB is not a Blockchain platform, but can be used in conjunction with the Amazon Blockchain product to maintain a complete and verifiable history of data changes.

The service is currently in preview mode, meaning that interested parties can register. If they are approved, they will be able to create a Blockchain network, then invite other members of Amazon Web Services or "create more members on their account to simulate a multi-member network," reads the FAQ section.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading in a horizontal zone between the levels of $4,090 - $4,350 in overbought conditions. The momentum is still positive, so the breakout above the level of $4,350 is still on the table. In that case, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $4,740. The larger time frame trend remains bearish.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for November 30, 2018

Although longer-term trend remains bearish, short-term strength in EUR/USD will challenge the medium and long-term trend. Price is challenging important resistance at 1.14-1.1470 that if broken would push prices above 1.1530-1.1550.

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Red line -trend line resistance

Green line- trend line support

Black dots - resistance

Red dots - major resistance level

EUR/USD is challenging the resistance trend line at 1.14. Breaking above the trend line will push price towards 1.1460-1.1470 where the major resistance is found. A rejection at current levels would be a bearish sign. Short-term support that could signal a rejection if broken would be at 1.1350. Breaking below that level will most probably push price towards the green trend line support.

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Technical analysis for Gold for November 30, 2018

Gold price reached the recent highs around $1,230 again yesterday but was unable to break above resistance yet. Price is now pulling back once again confirming the importance of the short-term resistance area at $1,230.

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Blue rectangle- major resistance area

Red rectangle - important short-term resistance

Green line - major trend line support

Gold price held the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and did not break below the green trend line support. These are two very important bullish signs. Not only that, but prices bounced strongly back towards last weeks highs at $1,230. Breaking above this resistance will be an important bullish sign for more upside. Target will then be a move to $1,250-60 at least. Major support area is now at $1,211-$1204. Breaking below this week's lows will be a bearish sign. Breaking below the green trend line support would increase the chances for a move much lower than $1,180. For now bulls keep the upper hand and as long as $1,203 holds.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 30, 2018

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We continue to look for a final dip closer to 1.6478 to complete wave v/ and iii. This final dip should set the stage for a corrective rally in wave iv towards 1.6706 before the final decline in wave v towards 1.6235. This should complete the first impulsive decline from 1.7929 and set the stage for a larger corrective rally.

Short-term resistance is seen at 1.6629, which ideally will cap the upside for a final dip to 1.6478. A break above 1.6629 could indicate wave iii has completed early, while a break above 1.6655 will confirm the low is in place for the corrective rally closer to 1.6706.

R3: 1.6655

R2: 1.6629

R1: 1.6603

Pivot: 1.6587

S1: 1.6555

S2: 1.6514

S3: 1.6478

Trading recommendation: We will buy EUR at 1.6480 or upon a break above 1.6655.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 30, 2018

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Under our new preferred count we should now be in wave c of D higher towards resistance in the 130.89 - 130.99 area. Ideally the final decline in wave E will start from here, but it's possible that wave c of D extends higher to 131.89 before tuning lower in wave E.

We now see support at 128.64, which ideally will protect the downside for the next rally higher through resistance at 129.25 for the rally towards the 130.89 - 130.99 area.

R3: 130.89

R2: 130.06

R1: 129.62

Pivot: 129.25

S1: 128.84

S2: 128.64

S3: 128.22

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 129.25 with our stop placed at 128.00. Upon a break above 129.30 we will move our stop higher to 123.50. We will take half profit at 130.75.

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EUR/USD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

EUR/USD is approaching its resistance at 1.1423 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 1.1350 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 95% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

EUR/USD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.1423. Stop loss 1.1475. Take profit at 1.1350.

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EUR/JPY Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further Drop

EUR/JPY reversed off its resistance at 129.30 (100% & 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to drop further to its support at 128.84 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) reversed off near its resistance at 96% where a corresponding drop is expected.

EUR/JPY reversed off its resistance where we expect to see a further drop.

Sell below 129.30. Stop loss at 129.56. Take profit at 128.84.

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 30, 2018

Bitcoin has been struggling at the edge of $4,250 area recently while being supported by the dynamic levels as well as Kumo Cloud in the process. The price is currently starting push higher after a pullback below $4,250 area which is expected to lead the price much higher towards $4,500 and later towards $5,000 area. The bias in the market is still quite indecisive as bullish counter-moves are impulsive but short-lived whereas the bearish pressure seemed to have certain difficulties, pushing the price lower consistently. In the meantime, the price is expected to push higher as it remains above $4,000 area and being held by the Kumo Cloud as support in the process.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 4,000

RESISTANCE: 4,250, 4,500, 5,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for November 29, 2018

NZD/USD has been quite indecisive and volatile today at the edge of 0.6850 area after impulsive bullish pressure observed recently. Despite the mixed economic data, NZD managed to gain and sustain good momentum over USD ahead of the upcoming rate hike in the US which attracted good amount of market sentiment already.

Recently NZD has been quite weaker amid economic reports risk aversion is expressed by the RBNZ. So, the market is displaying the same sentiment. Recently New Zealand Retail Sales report was published with a decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 1.1% which was expected to be at 1.0% and Trade Balance increased to -1295M from the previous value of -1596M which failed to meet the forecast of an increase to -850M. Recently RBNZ Financial Stability Report and RBNZ Governor Orr spoke about the ease of New Zealand's financial system risks which is expected to lead to better financial position of the country. Today ANZ Business Confidence report was published unchanged at 37.1. Nevertheless, NZD managed to sustain the momentum it had over USD without much counter trend pressure.

On the USD side, the economic reports published today revealed mixed figure. As a result, investors are in the wait-and-see mood ahead of the probable rate hike in December. Today US Core PCE Price Index report was published with a decrease to 0.1% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.2%, Personal Spending increased to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.4%, Personal Income increased to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.4%, and Unemployment Claims had a negative result of increasing to 234k from the previous figure of 224k which was expected to decrease to 221k.

In the meantime, NZD is holding the upper hand in the pair. That's why the price is still moving higher. Ahead of the rate hike in the US, market sentiment may favor USD but the pair could make certain downward corrections in the coming days inside the upward bias.

Now let us look at the technical view. After the price bounced off the 0.6720 area having dynamic level of 20 EMA as support, the price is currently holding above 0.6850 area from where it is expected to push higher towards 0.7050 in the coming days. As the price remains above 0.6720 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.6720, 0.6850

RESISTANCE: 0.7000-50

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD for November 30, 2018

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Unemployment Rate, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Prelim CPI m/m, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, French Prelim CPI m/m, German Retail Sales m/m, and German Import Prices m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Chicago PMI, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move in a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1444. Strong Resistance:1.1437. Original Resistance: 1.1426. Inner Sell Area: 1.1415. Target Inner Area: 1.1388. Inner Buy Area: 1.1361. Original Support: 1.1350. Strong Support: 1.1339. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1332. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY for November 30, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y, Consumer Confidence, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Unemployment Rate, and Tokyo Core CPI y/y. The US will also publish some economic data such as Chicago PMI. So there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 113.98. Resistance. 2: 113.76. Resistance. 1: 113.54. Support. 1: 113.26. Support. 2: 113.04. Support. 3: 112.82. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

US stock exchanges in the red zone before the publication of the protocols of the Fed

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On Thursday, November 29, the US stock markets came under strong pressure before the start of the G-20 summit and the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting.

As of 17:48 London time, the Dow Industrial Index fell by 145.37 points or 0.57%, the index of the largest US companies S & P 500 fell by 18.79 points or 0.68%, while the high-tech Nasdaq dropped to 70.05 item or 1.01%.

Earlier on Wednesday, US stock markets rose after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the interest rate value came close to the neutral range. Whereas only two months ago, Powell argued that the interest rate would take a long time to reach a neutral value.

Apparently, investors regarded the statements of the head of the regulator as a signal of a possible slowdown in the rate of the interest rate increase.

Today, the markets are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the November Fed meeting to understand the future plans of the US Central Bank. At the moment, most analysts predict that regulator officials will vote for tightening monetary policy for the fourth time this year.

Also, investors follow the developments in the trade conflict between the United States and China in the context of the G-20 summit, where negotiations between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping should be held.

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USD / CAD: Canadian follows black gold

A barrel of Brent crude oil overcame a psychologically important mark, dropping below $ 60. WTI crude oil also could not resist above $ 50. Today, the price has decreased to $ 49.8 per barrel. The last time the oil market was at these levels over a year ago, in October 2017. True, then the price crossed this line as part of the upward movement, recovering from the level of the annual minimum ($ 45 per barrel). Therefore, it is incorrect to compare the current situation with the events of the past year.

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However, last fall, the Canadian dollar gave up its position in the same way. "Loonie" was under strong pressure due to NAFTA's uncertain prospects and persistent doubts about the rate of the interest rate increase. Let me remind you that the Bank of Canada began to tighten its policy in July 2017, having raised the rate twice last year and three times this year. But each time the market suspected the regulator that it would pause for the tightening of monetary policy.

As a rule, there were compelling reasons for such suspicions. For example, negotiations on the renegotiation of the Agreement on the North American Free Trade Zone (NAFTA) lasted more than two years against the backdrop of regular threats from Trump to strengthen trade barriers between countries. Uncertainty in this matter was reflected in the determination of the members of the Canadian Central Bank, and in the country's investment climate. For example, in October last year, a pair of USD / CAD jumped by almost a thousand points, after the NAFTA deal once again fell through.

Now, this question is already irrelevant. NAFTA has transformed into the USMCA, after which traders have lost interest in this topic (by the way, the official signing of the new contract is expected on the G20). But this does not mean that doubts about the further actions of the Bank of Canada have disappeared, only the fundamental factors affecting the determination of the members of the Canadian regulator have changed. Thus, the focus of the market has shifted to the dynamics of key indicators of the Canadian economy and the behavior of the oil market.

The main macroeconomic data recently show a positive trend. So, the unemployment rate again dropped to 5.8% (after a temporary jump to 6%), and the inflation rate was even better than expected. And although for two months (in August and September), the consumer price index on a monthly basis was in a negative area, in October the indicator showed an unexpected increase of 0.3%. In annual terms, a positive trend was also recorded, up to 2.4%. Core inflation also increased significantly, up to 0.4% m / m and 1.5% y / y.

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Such dynamics make it possible to count on tightening the rhetoric on the part of representatives of the regulator, especially since the Bank of Canada, raising the rate in October, hinted at further steps in this direction. According to Stephen Poloz, despite a fivefold increase, the interest rate is still below the "neutral range" (2.5% -3.5%). Given the fact that at the moment, the rate is at the level of 1.75%, traders have every reason to rely on a strict policy of the regulator. Especially since the first signs of inflationary pressure appeared in October.

Despite this fundamental disposition, the Canadian dollar paired with a greenback feels obviously insecure. In November, USD / CAD finally entrenched itself in the area of 30 figures, showing bullish sentiment. What are missing bears? The answer lies on the surface, oil. It is worth noting here that the annual prices for petroleum products rose by 12% in October. This suggests that the dynamics of "black gold" has a strong influence on the overall inflationary dynamics. Therefore, the trend of recent weeks can not but cause concern among those traders who are counting on a further increase in the interest rate by the Canadian regulator.

The oil market is declining for many reasons, among which the main ones should be highlighted. First of all, this is an oversupply of production, and secondly, it is fairly reasonable to doubt that the December summit of OPEC + will end in an agreement to restrict production in 2019. In particular, yesterday oil quotes went down again after the publication of the Energy Information Administration data on the growth of commercial oil reserves in the US by 3.6 million barrels (whereas the forecast was at +0.3 million barrels).

The correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil quotes takes all the other fundamental factors into the background. Even the current release of the Core PCE Price Index (the level of Americans' spending on personal consumption) had only a temporary impact on the pair, although the release was worse than expected, both in annual and monthly terms. After a temporary pullback to the low of the day, a pair of USD / CAD resumed its growth, following the oil market.

This suggests that tomorrow's release of data on Canadian GDP growth should also be treated with extreme caution. If the indicator comes out better than the predicted values (although most analysts expect a decline in annual terms), the southern USD / CAD impulse may be false/temporary. The downward dynamics of the oil market will be a priority for the Loonie, as further collapse may affect the determination of the members of the Canadian regulator.

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In terms of technology, the pair may well soon reach the level of 1.3330, where there is a strong resistance level in the form of the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. In addition, the upward trend of USD / CAD is confirmed by the "Line Parade" signal of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator and the price being found between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator. From the level of 1.3330, we can consider selling the Loonie with a shortstop, based on the current fundamental picture for the oil market and the US dollar.

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Oil prices have updated lows since October 2017 after rising stocks in the US

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Today, the price of oil has updated at least October 25, 2017, falling to a level of $ 57.78 per barrel. The price of WTI oil dropped to $ 49.75 a barrel for the first time since October 10, 2017. The driver of such a strong fall was the data on the growth of stocks of raw materials in the US for the tenth week in a row.Statistics from the US Department of Energy showed an increase in commercial oil reserves in the country by 3.6 million barrels, to 450.5 million barrels. Experts predicted growth of only 800 thousand barrels.By midday, the commodity asset recovered in price to the level of $ 59.85 per barrel.

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Brexit: Consider the scenarios of the movement of the pound with Brexit and in the absence of a transaction

The euro fell slightly in the morning, but then regained its position after the release of good fundamental statistics for Germany and the Eurozone.

The canceled speech by the President of the European Central Bank was replaced with only a few comments by the regulator, in which the ECB warned of growing risks for the eurozone financial sector, including the tense situation in international trade, problems of emerging markets, as well as concerns about the high level of debt.

The bank is also concerned about the Brexit scenario since a sharp break in relations will necessarily threaten financial stability in the eurozone.

Basic data

As I noted above, the German labor market continues to leave faith in the good economic performance of the flagship eurozone economy by the end of this year.

According to the Federal Employment Service, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 in November compared with the previous month, while economists had forecast a decline of 10,000. The employment service said that high labor demand among companies persists. The unemployment rate in Germany in November fell to the level of 5.0%.

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A good report on the confidence of eurozone companies in November of this year also supported the euro. According to the European Commission, the sentiment index in the eurozone economy in November of this year fell only to 109.5 points from 109.7 points in October, while economists had expected a decline to 109.0 points. As noted in the report, a slight decline in November was due to weaker consumer confidence, while sentiment in the services sector and the construction sector in the eurozone remained unchanged compared with October.

In the afternoon, all market attention will be focused on the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, which took place on November 8. In the protocols, traders will carefully study the views of the Central Bank's executives on the economy, which will allow a detailed understanding of their plans for raising interest rates in the future.

Yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell diminished enthusiasm a little. Powell said that the current interest rate is only "not much lower" than the neutral level. This suggests that the pace of tightening monetary policy next year may significantly slow down, and this will adversely affect the US dollar rate. Many experts believe that the increase in interest rates can fully manifest itself in the economy only a year or even later.

At the last meeting, the Fed leaders voted to leave the key rate in the range of 2% -2.25%. Let me remind you that many economists expect an increase in interest rates during the meeting, scheduled for December 18-19.

The British pound fell today after the report of the Bank of England, which did not clarify the situation, but only indicated that in the absence of an agreement on Brexit, the problems of the UK economy will be very serious.

The management of the bank believes that the rates will not necessarily automatically follow the trajectory specified in the Brexit scenario, and the actions of the bank with respect to interest rates will depend, in general, on how much supply and demand are affected.

As for the scenario, if an agreement is reached on close ties between the UK and the EU, the British pound is expected to grow by more than 5%.

But the scenario in the absence of such an agreement could lead to a drop in the pound by more than 15% and more than 25% in the case of disorderly Brexit (destructive and disorderly exit scenarios imply the absence of an agreement on Brexit and a transition period).

Also, the Bank of England fears that in the event of a disorderly Brexit, a sharp jump in inflation will lead to the fact that the interest rate reaches a peak of 5.5% rather quickly, which will slow down the development of the economy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com