Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CAD for April 18, 2018

EUR/CAD has moved quite impulsively with the bullish gains today. The pair is expected to push higher with the bullish momentum for a while before proceeding lower in the short term. Today, after BOC Overnight Rate was declared unchanged as expected at 1.25%, BOC Monetary Policy was quite dovish with statements like considerable risk from escalating trade tensions which will impact the short-term growth of the economy but for the long term better results are expected. Moreover, BOC Press Conference is yet to be held, so a good amount of volatility is expected to be injected in the market today. On the other hand, US Crude Oil Inventories report is going reading on the USD side is expected to push the market to more indecision which will lead to a further corrective bias of the market sentiment. As for the current scenario, USD is expected to gain certain momentum over CAD for the coming days of the week whereas CAD is expected to gain momentum on the long-term basis as the bearish bias still exists in the market.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently proceeding quite impulsively towards the resistance area of 1.57 from where with the confluence of dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance, the price is expected to continue its bearish pressure with a target towards 1.5320 in the coming days. The consolidation after the strong bearish trend is currently correcting itself pretty well but more volatility is expected until the daily close today. As the price remains below 1.59, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 18, 2018

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. the pair continues a rebound initiated at a low of 106.87 seen overnight (April 17). Currently, it has returned to levels above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. At the same time, the relative strength index has jumped into the 60s, indicating that upward momentum could help produce a new upleg for the pair. As long as the bullish bias is maintained, the pair is expected to revisit 106.85 on the upside (around the high of yesterday) before targeting 107.40.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 106.85, take profit at 107.40.

Resistance levels: 107.40, 107.60, and 107.90

Support levels: 106.65, 106.45, and 106.00.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 18, 2018

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All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. USD/CHF is expected to advance further. The pair is holding on the upside after yesterday's upward acceleration. Both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages maintain the bullish bias. The relative strength index is bullish and calls for a new upleg. To conclude, above 0.9635, look for a further advance with targets at 0.9715 and 0.9750 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9635, take profit at 0.9715.

Resistance levels: 0.9715, 0.9750, and 0.9790

Support levels: 0.9605, 0.9575, and 0.9545.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 18, 2018

analytics5ad74d9b64bac.pngAll our Downside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair retreated from 153.85 and broke below both 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, death cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified. The relative strength is mixed with a bearish bias. Hence, as long as 153.10 holds on the upside, look for a drop with targets at 151.75 and 151.15 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 153.75, 154.25, and 154.75

Support levels: 151.75, 151.15, and 150.80.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for April 18, 2018

EUR/JPY

Like its USD/JPY counterpart, there is yet to be a significant movement in this cross. The targets at the supply zones at 133.00 and 133.50, and 134.00, remain valid. They may even be exceeded as price journeys further upwards this week.

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There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which would become more and more serious as price goes northwards. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The price action also reveals that bulls are intent on pushing price further upwards.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 18, 2018

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. NZD/USD is still under pressure. Although the pair posted a rebound from 0.7325 (the low of April 17), it is still capped by a declining 50-period moving averages. The key resistance at 0.7345 should remain intact and maintain the selling pressure. Hence, as long as this key level is not surpassed, look for another drop with targets at 0.7300 and 0.7280 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7370, 0.7385, and 0.7425

Support levels: 0.7300, 0.7280, and 0.7245.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 18, 2018

USD/JPY

There is yet to be much activity on this pair. The situation has not changed, but when it does, a directional movement may start, which would propel price above the supply level at 108.00 or the demand level at 106.50. This will require a rise in momentum, and that is what will eventually happen in the market.

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Most likely, the price would be able to go above the supply level at 108.00; even reaching other supply levels at 108.50 and 109.00. There is still some bullish expectation on JPY pairs this week, which could see some rallies on them.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for April 18, 2018

USD/CHF

This pair has been able to maintain its recent bullish bias. Price has gained over 120 pips since last week, and there is much room for it to go further upwards, owing to an expectation of stamina in USD. The resistance lines at 0.9700, 0.9750, and 0.9800 may be reached later this week.

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The situation in the market is now directional (and in favor of bulls).There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart and the Williams' % Range period 20 is around the overbought territory.

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Global macro overview for 18/04/2018

The March inflation reading from the United Kingdom falls below forecasts. The CPI fell to 2.5% from 2.7% a month ago and it's been the lowest level for a year. Core inflation also dropped to 2.3%. from 2.4%, while the market consensus assumed 2.7% and 2.5%. Clothing prices were lower than usual at this time of the year. One can also see the impact of one-off factors in the scope of changes in taxes on alcohol and tobacco products. The figures are a disappointment and a blow to the optimism that the pound has enjoyed in the recent days, because it weakens expectations for the Bank of England interest rate hike in May (although it is not yet canceled).

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market fell sharply below the golden trend line support after the level of 1.4279 was violated. The price broke through the support at the levels 1.4247 and 1.4223 and so far stopped at the 50% Fibo retracement at the level of 1.4170.The momentum clearly points to the downside and the stochastic oscillator is coming down from the overbought conditions as well, which might indicate more drops towards the level of 1.4143 and 1.4120.

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Global macro overview for 18/04/2018

A Swiss franc has made a pretty huge impression on global investors recently. Over the last day, EUR/CHF caught by 1.1970, which is very close to the level of 1.20, when the SNB stopped defending the franc and provided one of the largest breakdowns.Weakness, however, has a rather strange basis.

First of all, the last sanctions imposed by the US on Russian oligarchs forces them to transfer capital from Switzerland. Liquidation of shares in Swiss companies, a pressure of international banking groups for fear of White House restrictions, or simple withdrawal of deposits for rescuing overestimated assets in Russia. There are hundreds of millions of CHF that go through the usually calm market. Additional pressure on the franc is triggered by the civic initiative of introducing Vollgeld, which is all about forbidding the creation of money for commercial banks. The referendum on this matter is to take place on June 10, but concerns are already being raised that the victory of this initiative will be a serious threat to the economy (it will limit the supply of credit, increase the costs of financial services).

Let's now take a look at the EUR/CHF technical picture in the daily time frame. In total, both issues in the short term will weigh on the franc and for the first time in over three years, so the market can return above 1.20 per EUR. However, due to the fact that the reasons for increases are not strictly fundamental, while the EUR position is deteriorating, the EUR / CHF should not go up that high for long. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1834. Please notice the extremely overbought market conditions.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 18, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $8.875. On Monday April 16, the Philippines opposition senator Leila M. de Lima asked her fellow bureaucrats to push the passage of the cryptocurrency bills she helped frame. The proposed bills aim to introduce a harsher penalty towards criminals who use cryptocurrencies during illegal activities. The technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time – frame, I found a broken falling wedge and flat base in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a failed head and shoulders pattern, which is another sigh of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunties. The upward target is set at the price of $8.875.

Support/Resistance

$8.100 – Intraday resistance

$7.730– Intraday support

$8.875– Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for April 18, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,345.25. According to the M30 time – frame, I found that price is respecting supply trendline, which is a sign that sellers are active. I also found a rounding top pattern, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities as long that price remains below the supply trendline. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,337.50 and at the price fo $1,333.20.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,351.90

R2: $1,356.50

R3: $1,363.62

Support levels:

S1: $1,340.16

S2: $1,333.05

S3: $1,328.45

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 18, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downward. After downbeat CPI y/y, price dropped and tested the level of 1.4173. Anyway, according to the H4 time – frame, I found very strong support at the price of 1.4175. I found a Fibonacci retracement 50% and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the similar level, which is a sign that selling GBP/USD at this stage looks very risky. In my opinion, selling climax is present and my advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.4312 and at the price of 1.4375.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4350

R2: 1.4410

R3: 1.4445

Support levels:

S1: 1.4255

S2: 1.4222

S3: 1.4165

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 18, 2018

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Overview: The pivot point is seen at the point of 0.7294. The NZD/USD pair is still continuing to move upwards from the level of 0.7294 and 0.7436 in the long term. The level of 0.7294 represents the daily pivot point in the H4 time frame. The pair rose from the level of 0.7294 to a top around 0.7375. Right now, the price is moving around the level of 0.7375. Also, it should be noted that the resistances levels are lies in 0.7375 and 0.7436, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7294 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7294 and 0.7436; so we expect a range of 142 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7375, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7436) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7300 with the first target at 0.7375 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7436. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7436 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7294, a further decline to 0.7151 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 18, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9589. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.9589 (the level of 0.9589 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 0.9698. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.9589 followed by 0.9503, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 0.9755. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9600 and 0.9755; for that we expect a range of 155 pips (0.9755 - 0.9600). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 0.9698, which coincides with the double top. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100) and (50), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.9755, we should see the pair climbing towards the weekly resistance at 0.9809 to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.9503.

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Bitcoin analysis for 18/04/2018

The rating giant, Moody's Investor Service, said in a recent report that Blockchain technology for cross-border transactions could potentially harm banks in Switzerland more than in any other country. Because half of the Swiss banking sector's revenues come from fees and commissions, Switzerland is more at risk of losing money because Blockchain technology makes cross-border transactions cheaper and faste. According to the Moody's report: making cross-border transactions faster and cheaper would be more advantageous for bank borrowers, but these improvements could also compress their fees and commissions, which would be a negative result.

Switzerland is also the third, after Great Britain and Belgium, the national Moody's position for banks that process the largest number of cross-border transactions with respect to GDP (except for Luxembourg and Hong Kong). Switzerland has recently been described as a "crypto nation" due to its supporting ecosystem for crypto, Blockchain and ICO. Earlier in April, a board member of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) said that although the technology of a scattered accounting book, such as Blockchain, can reduce the cost of cross-border payments, it does not meet the real-time gross requirements.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is now in wave b cycle of the corrective wave (2)/b, which should end at the level of $7,442. There is a possibility that the wave (2)/b had been completed already at the level of $7,722, but it would have been very short in price and time. The key level to the upside is the recent swing high at the level of $8,355. If broken, then the market will likely rally towards the next technical resistance at the level of $9,134.

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Trading plan for 18/04/2018

Except for some volatility on the USD/JPY pair, the rest of the currency market passed a calm night. EUR / USD stuck at 1.2370, GBP / USD fluctuates at 1.43. You can not see emotions on AUD and CAD. The index rally in Europe and Wall Street encouraged Asian indices to increase. Japanese Nikkei225 grows 1.5% and Chinese Shanghai Composite gains 0.4%.

On Wednesday 18th of April, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but global investors should keep an eye on Consumer Price Index from the UK and the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Report and Press Conference later in the afternoon. Two FOMC members will give a speech today as well: William Dudley and Randal Quarles.

USD/JPY analysis for 18/04/2018:

USD / JPY climbed at 107.40 with the only important point of the session in the form of a meeting between US President Trump and the Prime Minister of Japan Abe. Traders are still waiting for a press conference after the meeting, but the market has positive expectations. Earlier, the White House said that Trump was considering a return to the Transposal Agreement, and the US was looking for a free trade agreement with Japan.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is bouncing from the oversold levels towards the lower line of the parallel channel at the level of 107.31. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 107.48 and the nearest support is seen at the level of 107.20. The momentum keeps hovering around its fifty level so it does not support the bullish outlook for today much. The key technical support is seen at the level of 106.61.

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Burning forecast 04/18/2018

Burning forecast 04/18/2018

EURUSD: Waiting for the beginning of the trend.

There is a lull in the markets. The news on the German economy gives hints of a possible slowdown in growth - however, these arguments are based on a sharp drop in investors' optimism - but it should be noted that the surveys were conducted at the time of the US trade relations with China.

In general, the world economy is growing. Crises have receded (temporarily). No important news.

EURUSD: We continue to expect an exit of the old range and strong movement.

Buying euro from 1.2415, stop at 1.2370, profit 1.2680.

Alternative: Sell from 1.2295, stop at 1.2340, profit at 1.2000.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 18, 2018

Although the Dollar index started weak yesterday, price held the important short-term upward sloping trend line support and made a strong bounce. Trend remains bearish as price remains below the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud. There is no indication by the price action that a bigger reversal has started.

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Black line - short-term trend line support

Price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Bulls will need to break above 90-90.30 resistance area. If this happens, then we can talk for a bigger bounce towards 91.70 and higher. Yesterday's lows are also very important price level. Bears need to break them soon and the decline towards 88 will accelerate. Bears are still in control of the trend and they do not want price to break above 90. Bulls need to defend 89.20 and show more signs of strength.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 18, 2018

Gold price continues to trade sideways below the short-term resistance of $1,350. Support at $1,338-40 is very important for the short term. I'm expecting another leg down towards $1,300 as the most probable scenario. Only a break above $1,365 will cancel this view and automatically make me bullish looking for a move towards $1,400-$1,430.

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Red line -long-term resistance

Gold price is trading inside the Kumo (cloud). Price is now at support. Any move below $1,340 will be a sign of weakness. A daily close below $1,338 will be a sign of further weakness to come and probably $1,300. Bulls should first break above $1,350 resistance which is the recent highs. After that, they will need to make new 2018 highs and cancel the false break out of last week.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for April 18, 2018

USD/CAD has been consolidating below 1.2620 price area since it broke below the level from where certain retracement is currently expected before price proceeds lower in the nearest days. USD has failed to retain its bullish momentum earlier this month due to worse-than-expected economic reports which shifted the market sentiment towards CAD in an impulsive manner. Today is an important day for CAD as Canada is due to release a series of high impact economic reports. Today, Canada's Overnight Rate is going to be published which is expected to remain unchanged at 1.25% along with BOC Rate Statement and BOC Monetary Policy report. Since the January rate hike from 1.00% to 1.25%, the unchanged interest rate in the country seems to be depend on the current inflation rate. On the other hand, amid the hawkish stance of the US FED for this year, USD is being dominated by CAD recently. Recently, US Building Permits report showed an increase to 1.35M from the previous figure of 1.32M and Housing Starts was also published with an increase to 1.32M from the previous figure of 1.30M. The positive economic reports helped the currency to sustain certain bullish pressure in the pair and resist further impulsive bearish pressure. Today, FOMC Member Dudley and Quarles are going to speak. Their remarks are expected to have minor impact on the market sentiment. This week, USD is expected to be quite slow in comparison to all other major currencies as there is not many economic reports or events to shift the market sentiment in an impulsive manner. As for the current scenario, CAD is expected to continue its impulsive bearish pressure having certain corrections along the way in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently showing some bullish impulsive pressure below 1.2620 price area from where it is expected to retrace higher towards 1.2620-1.2650 area before the price proceeds lower towards 1.2450 in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.28 price area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for April 18, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite corrective and consolidating above 132.00 for a few days, now it is expected to proceed higher. EUR has been quite stronger against JPY recently, which resulted in impulsive bullish pressure despite the mixed economic reports published this week. Today, JPY Trade Balance report was published with a significant increase to 0.12T from the previous figure of -0.21T which was expected to be at 0.10T. The positive economic report did not quite help JPY to put some bearish pressure on EUR, whereas EUR sustained its impulsive bullish momentum with ease. On the EUR side, today, Current Account report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 32.3B from the previous figure of 37.6B. As of the current scenario, a certain correction is still expected as Euro Current Account report is forecasted to have dovish outcome, whereas JPY has been quite positive with the economic report today, so a certain retracement can be observed in the market, whereas the trend is still bullish and EUR is expected to push higher in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently impulsive with the bullish gains, whereas having certain economic reports to be published yet today, a certain retracement is expected along the way before the price shoots up towards the 134.50-135.00 resistance area in the coming days. Though the current bullish pressure is not impulsive as expected, so a certain consolidation along the way is expected to be a positive sign for the bulls to gain more strength along the way. As the price remains above the 132.00 price area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 18, 2018

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We expect the wave iv/ peaked at 1.6892 and wave v/ lower towards 1.6620 now is developing. However, we need to the peak at 1.6892 caps the upside for a break below minor support at 1.6830 and more importantly below support at 1.6786. A break below the later confirms that wave v/ lower towards 1.6620 is developing.

The peak at 1.6892 needs to cap the upside under this count.

R3: 1.6919

R2: 1.6892

R1: 1.6873

Pivot: 1.6830

S1: 1.6815

S2: 1.6786

S3: 1.6765

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 1.6845 with stop placed at 1.6915.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 17, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains recently, which engulfed the previous bullish daily candle easily. However, today bears seemed absent in the process, whereas bulls tried to retain their ground. The price has gained over 20% recently, which was quite remarkable and which also explains the possibilities of further bullish pressure for the coming days. The overall crypto market is looking pretty well with the recovery, where the flagship bitcoin is proceeding faster in comparison. As of the current scenario, the price is expected to push higher without any deeper pullback if today's daily close remains strong with bullish pressure. As the price remains above $7,000 with daily close, further impulsive bullish pressure is expected for the future.

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