Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on July 3, 2020

Hello, dear colleagues!

Yesterday's publication of Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment data showed that the US labor market is recovering at a faster pace than economists had expected.

In June, unemployment in the United States fell to the level of 11.1%, although forecasts were reduced to 12.4%. And if memory serves, this trend has been observed for the third month in a row. That is, the actual value of the unemployment rate is lower than the forecast values for the third time in a row. Is this not an indicator of the recovery of the US labor market?

Nonfarm Payroll reports are another important factor for the US labor market. The creation of new jobs in the non-agricultural sectors of the American economy in June grew much stronger than forecasts, which were reduced to the appearance of three million new vacancies, but the number of employed increased by 4.8 million. This is a record since statistics were started in 1939! And if you look at these statistics, but only for the last three months, you can find that the actual figures for non-farms exceed the forecasts, and quite significantly. This is another good reason to believe that the labor market in the United States is actively recovering, which, unfortunately, can not be said about the situation with the spread of COVID-19.

The United States still holds a sad lead in the daily number of people infected with the coronavirus. According to the latest data, the daily increase in infected COVID-19 was 52,000 people in the United States. A surge in the pandemic could undo the economic recovery that has begun in the United States.

In addition to good data on the US labor market, the dollar was in demand as a safe asset in connection with the COVID-19 outbreak and showed growth in yesterday's trading across a wide range of the market. However, this growth was very small. Here it is appropriate to say that the US currency has stopped its fall, which was observed before.

Daily

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The Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator and the mark of 1.1300 has become a real Achilles' heel for euro bulls. Even after the release of very positive labor reports from the US, the players on the increase did not stop trying to continue the rise of the rate. The pair hovered around 1.1287 for a long time, and the market's desire to move up was evident, but strong statistics from the US, as well as the demand for the USD as a safe-haven currency, played a dominant role. As a result, the pair still turned down and ended Thursday's trading at 1.1239. At the same time, yesterday's daily candle may well be perceived by market participants as a reversal model of the "shooting star" candle analysis.

However, in the absence of American players, the market today will be thin, and therefore any possible scenarios are possible.

The bullish mood will return only if Tenkan (1.1266) breaks, and then the mark of 1.1300. That is, players need to rewrite or update yesterday's highs, which are at the level of 1.1302, and end the trading session above this mark. But is such a mission possible today?

Bears on EUR/USD have an equally difficult task. They need to lower the exchange rate to a strong support zone of 1.1185-1.1165, the breakdown of the level of 1.1165, in my opinion, will finally indicate the superiority of sellers of the single European currency.

Turning to trading recommendations, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that today is not the best day to open new positions. First of all, this is the last trading day of the week and the weekend is ahead. Secondly, on the occasion of the US Independence Day, American trading platforms will be closed, which means a thin market.

For those who still decide to trade today, I recommend considering both scenarios. In my personal opinion, sales will become relevant after the corresponding candle signals appear on H4 and (or) H1, in the price zone of 1.1280-1.1300. It is riskier to sell the pair near 1.1250. At the same time, I do not recommend setting large goals, 20-35 points for such a day is quite sufficient and reasonable profit.

Purchases should be considered after the appearance of bullish models of Japanese candlesticks in the price zones of 1.1210-1.1190 and 1.1185-1.1165. The goals are the same as when opening short positions. I assume that the main struggle of the warring parties today will unfold around the level of 1.1200 and the final closing price of the day and week relative to this mark. However, this is just an assumption. We will talk about how events will develop and how the weekly trading will end on Monday.

Good luck!

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XAU/USD facing bullish pressure, potential for further upside!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1764.89

Reason for Entry: Horizontal overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci extension

Take Profit: 1792.66

Reason for Take Profit: -27.2%, 227.2% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1746.85

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support, 127.2% fibonacci extension

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Growth of the pound is like a sand castle

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According to some analysts, the British currency is trying to grow on a weak foundation. Experts do not see strong grounds for raising the pound. But on the contrary, GBP is similar to a sand castle that can collapse from any adverse factors.

On Thursday, July 2, the indicated currency surprised the markets with a sudden rise, for which, according to experts, there were no prerequisites. The GBP/USD pair broke through the psychologically important barrier of 1.2500 and rose sharply by 0.4%, to 1.2516. However, the rapid increase was interrupted: buyers could not consolidate on these peaks. On the morning of Friday, July 3, the GBP/USD pair slipped to the range of 1.2459 - 1.2460. A little later, the GBP/USD pair gained altitude, rising to the level of 1.2477, but only memories remained from previous achievements.

According to the analytical company ING, the current growth of the pound is caused by a short-term correction. It can be noted that the pound in relation to the dollar, has grown by more than 200 points over the past three days, without any significant reasons for this. ING believes that such baseless growth, not supported by fundamental incentives, will be temporary. A further strengthening of the pound is hindered by a number of negative factors, the main of which is the problems associated with negotiations on trade relations between the UK and the EU.

On the Brexit issue and its accompanying problems, in particular the conclusion of a trade deal and the extension of the transition period, Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, was categorical. Earlier, he said that the country was ready to abandon the current transitional agreements with the European Union "according to the Australian scenario." It can be recalled that Australia does not have a comprehensive trade deal with Euroblock countries. The lion's share of trade between the EU and the Green Continent corresponds to the standard rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and special agreements apply only to certain groups of goods.

Failure to extend the transition period could be a challenge for the UK in the future. At the moment, it all depends on whether London and Brussels can agree on mutually beneficial trading conditions. In case of failure of the next negotiations, which must take place before January 1, 2012, the parties will act in accordance with the rules and tariffs of the WTO.

The current situation knocks the ground out from under the feet of the pound, dispelling illusions about its further growth. A small help for its rise was the proposal of B. Johnson, which provides financial assistance in the amount of 5 billion pounds. According to experts, this can support the British economy, which was seriously affected after the COVID-19 pandemic. On this positive wave, the pound reached new highs, demonstrating an upward correction in the GBP/USD pair.

An important role in the worsening position of the pound was played by not too positive macro statistics in the UK. According to economists, disappointing macrodata strengthens the probability of additional monetary support from the Bank of England. This may put additional pressure on the pound and further undermine its position.

It can be recalled that last month, manufacturing activity in the country improved slightly, but this decline of positivity did not affect the market. According to the Markit/CIPS report, in June, the PMI purchasing managers index for the UK manufacturing sector reached 50.1 points, exceeding the May indicator by 40.7 points. The current value of the index (above 50) testifies to the strengthening of business activity. However, other indicators were not up to par: in the first quarter of 2020, British GDP declined by 2.2% qoq and 1.8% yoy, disappointing the market. During the reporting period, the country's balance of payments showed a deficit of 21.1 billion pounds, exceeding experts' forecasts.

Another serious threat to the continued growth of the pound remains the high probability of another outbreak of coronavirus infection. In the United Kingdom, the situation with COVID-19 is currently relatively stable. However, this fragile balance can be disturbed at any time, and experts warn that the disease will get out of control. In this regard, the rating agency S&P Global has worsened the annual forecast for the British economy, warning about the possibility of an "ideal storm". According to analysts, the reasons for this development may be a repeated outbreak of COVID-19 and the "hard" Brexit. Against the background of current nervousness and uncertainty, the potential for reducing the British currency remains.

Despite the "sandy" foundation of the pound, the GBP/USD pair is not going to give up and is constantly trying to strengthen. Experts believe that strengthening the position of the pound is possible in the medium and long term, when its position becomes more stable. Experts do not exclude that the pound will find solid ground by this time.

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Fractal analysis of main currency pairs on July 3rd

Forecast for July 3:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1289, 1.1254, 1.1183, 1.1154, 1.1132, 1.1071 and 1.1029. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of the descending structure of June 23. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1183. In this case, the goal is 1.1154. The price passing the noise range 1.1154 - 1.1132 will lead to the development of a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 1.1071. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1029. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1254 - 1.1289. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the formation of an ascending structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.1349. We expect the initial conditions for the top to be formed to this level.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of June 23, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1255 Take profit: 1.1287

Buy: 1.1292 Take profit: 1.1346

Sell: 1.1183 Take profit: 1.1155

Sell: 1.1130 Take profit: 1.1080

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The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.2696, 1.2630, 1.2597, 1.2547, 1.2508, 1.2456, 1.2413 and 1.2349. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of June 30. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2508 - 1.2547. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2597. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.2597 - 1.2630. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2696. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2456 - 1.2413. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 1.2349. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 30

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2508 Take profit: 1.2545

Buy: 1.2548 Take profit: 1.2595

Sell: 1.2455 Take profit: 1.2415

Sell: 1.2410 Take profit: 1.2355

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The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9497, 0.9480, 0.9468, 0.9434, 0.9407, 0.9389 and 0.9363. Here, we are watching the descending structure of June 30th. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9434. In this case, the target is 0.9407. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9407 - 0.9389. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9363. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation and an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.9468 - 0.9480. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 0.9497. This is a key support level for the bottom and the price passing this level will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the goal is 0.9531.

The main trend is the downward structure of June 30

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9468 Take profit: 0.9480

Buy : 0.9482 Take profit: 0.9495

Sell: 0.9434 Take profit: 0.9408

Sell: 0.9405 Take profit: 0.9390

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The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are : 108.86, 108.45, 108.28, 107.95, 107.57, 107.37 and 107.01. . Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle of June 23. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.95. In this case, the target is 108.28. Price consolidation is in the range of 108.28 - 108.45. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.86. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A consolidated movement is possible in the range 107.57 - 107.37. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the goal is 107.01. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of June 23, correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.95 Take profit: 108.28

Buy : 108.47 Take profit: 108.86

Sell: 107.55 Take profit: 107.38

Sell: 107.35 Take profit: 107.05

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The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3813, 1.3766, 1.3709, 1.3638, 1.3566, 1.3526 and 1.3487. Here, we entered an equilibrium situation. In order to continue moving to the top, it is necessary to create local initial conditions. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.3566 - 1.3526. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the cancellation of the downward structure and here the first goal is 1.3487.

The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3638. In this case, the first target is 1.3709. The breakdown of which, in turn, should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level of 1.3766. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3813. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3638 Take profit: 1.3707

Buy : 1.3711 Take profit: 1.3765

Sell: 1.3564 Take profit: 1.3528

Sell: 1.3524 Take profit: 1.3488

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The key levels for the Australian dollar / dollar pair on the H1 scale are : 0.7041, 0.7008, 0.6986, 0.6953, 0.6898, 0.6877, 0.6855, 0.6834 and 0.6809. Here, we are following the formation of potential for the top of June 30. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6953. In this case, the target is 0.6986. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 0.6986 - 0.7008. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7041. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.6898 - 0.6877. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 0.6855. This is a key support level for the top and the price passing this level will lead to the formation of a downward local structure. In this case, the target is 0.6834.

The main trend is building potential for the top of June 30

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6953 Take profit: 0.6985

Buy: 0.6987 Take profit: 0.7006

Sell : 0.6898 Take profit : 0.6878

Sell: 0.6875 Take profit: 0.6857

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The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 122.47, 121.87, 121.66, 121.29, 120.64, 120.35, 120.12 and 119.74. Here, we are following the rising structure of June 26th. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.29. In this case, the goal is 121.66. Price consolidation is in the range of 121.66 - 121.87. The price passing the noise range of 121.66 - 121.87 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 122.47. Upon reaching this value, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 120.64 - 120.35. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper movement. Here, the goal is 120.12. This is the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the local upward structure of June 26

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.30 Take profit: 121.66

Buy: 121.90 Take profit: 122.45

Sell: 120.64 Take profit: 120.37

Sell: 120.35 Take profit: 120.14

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The key levels for the pound / yen pair on the H1 scale are : 136.73, 135.98, 135.49, 134.68, 133.77, 133.38, 132.90, 132.41 and 131.91. Here, we are following the development of the rising structure of June 29. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 134.68. In this case, the target is 135.49. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 135.49 - 135.98. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level 136.73. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range 133.77 - 133.38. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the goal is 132.90. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 29

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 134.70 Take profit: 135.49

Buy: 135.52 Take profit: 135.96

Sell: 133.77 Take profit: 133.40

Sell: 133.36 Take profit: 132.90

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USD/CHF Price Movement For July 03, 2020

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On the 4-hour chart for USD/CHF, we spotted the Divergence between the Stochastic Oscillator with the price. Based on this information, there is a high probability for this pair to go up to reach the 0.9493 level as long as this pair does not retrace downwards and closes below 0.9425

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Control zones for USDCAD on 07/03/2020

Today there is a regular test of the WCZ 1/2 1.3572-1.3557. If the current week's trading closes below the specified zone, then sales will come to the fore at the beginning of the next week. The goal of the decline will be a weekly short-term limit of 1.3430-1.3403, which will allow you to get a favorable risk-to-profit ratio for short positions.

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Working within the framework of a downward medium-term momentum will allow you to hold sales that were opened earlier and enter into new transactions.

An alternative growth model will develop if today's trading closes above yesterday's high. This will allow you to search for the entry point to buy on Monday. The probability of implementing an ascending and descending model is approximately equal, since the pair is trading within the WCZ 1/2.

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Daily control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for NZDUSD on 07/03/2020

In the second half of this week, the pair resumed its upward medium-term movement. This makes it possible to hold purchases that were opened earlier. Yesterday there was a test of the weekly control zone of 0.6547-0.6532. The reaction does not look like a reversal yet, so there is a high probability of updating the weekly maximum and re-testing the zone.

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Further plans need to be made after the weekly control zone is re-tested, as keeping the price below the zone will allow you to consider sales next week.

When working within the framework of the day, you need to look at the situation that is developing at the monthly level. It is important to note that the accumulation zone was formed throughout June. This indicates the need to take into account monthly and weekly extremes for making trading decisions.

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Daily control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 3, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Ethereum 2.0 was created to improve the scalability and performance of the native blockchain. Let us remind you that in the near future the network co-created by Vitalik Buterin is shifting from the PoW to PoS consensus.

The co-founder of Ethereum reminded that the transition to ETH 2.0 will not happen overnight. Either way, it will ultimately lead to network scaling with 100,000 transactions per second (TPS).

Buterin has confirmed that the network will have to settle for current off-chain scaling solutions for the next two years. This will continue until developers finally realize their plans for new Ethereum 2.0 scaling options:

"ETH2 scaling for data will be available * before * ETH2 scaling for general computation. This implies that rollups will be the dominant scaling paradigm for at least a couple of years: first ~ 2-3k TPS with eth1 as data layer, then ~ 100k TPS with eth2 (phase 1). Adjust accordingly " - tweeted Buterin.

The launch date of ETH 2.0 remains unclear and the planned implementation is being delayed. The first launch was to take place in January this year. As we know, ETH 2.0 is being implemented in stages. Afri Schoedon, test network coordinator ETH 2.0, said in May that based on the current progress of the project, phase 0 is likely to occur at the end of this or early next year. In the initial phase, a beacon chain will be launched to implement proof-of-stake.

According to Bitinfocharts data, within 48 hours to June 30 the median transaction fee on the Ethereum blockchain increased by 60%, increasing from USD 0.23 to USD 0.37. Despite the sudden increase, this means a continuation of the trend in which the median ETH transaction fees increased by 510%.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the Doji candlestick pattern was made at the top ot the move up that retrace 50% of the last wave down, the ETH/USD pair had dropped significantly. The short-term trend line dynamic support has been broken as well. The market has hit the intraday support located at the level of $221.31, but it was not clearly violated yet. Nevertheless, the odds for another low are high as the momentum is still weak and negative. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $217.65 and $209.89.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $273.84

WR2 - $260.74

WR1 - $240.04

Weekly Pivot - $227.40

WS1 - $206.35

WS2 - $194.36

WS3 - $173.30

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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GBP/JPY price movement, July 03, 2020

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On the 4-hour chart, we can see that there is a divergence between the Stochastic Oscillator with the price of GBP/JPY. The pair is likely to dip to the 132.92 level. This scenario may occur if GBP/JPY does not rise and close above the 134.68 level.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 3, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Russian criminal court rejected the claim for compensation to the victim of what would be a crime in many jurisdictions, arguing that Bitcoin, as a virtual currency, does not enjoy the same protection of property as other assets.

The case dates back to 2018, when two men pretending to be agents of the Federal Security Service and their associates kidnapped the victim and forced her to hand them over 5 million rubles or $ 90,000 in cash and 99.7 BTC - with a value of about $ 900,000 at that time. The kidnappers were sentenced to eight and ten years in prison.

As part of the criminal proceedings, the victim asked the court to force thieves to return the money they had stolen. The court partly issued a ruling in favor of the victim, claiming that thieves must pay back 5 million rubles. However, as far as cryptocurrencies are concerned, the court stated that it is not able to satisfy the claim because virtual currencies are not recognized by Russian law as legal tender or its surrogate.

The victim can still try his luck in a civil court. Regardless of future court proceedings, this court decision is extraordinary - in fact, it stated that the theft of Bitcoins is not a crime.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $9,240, but bulls had hit the technical resistance located at the level of 9,238, so the price pulled-back and finally hit the intraday support located at the level of $8,971. The momentum is still weak and negative, but keeps hovering around the level of fifty, which is a neutral level for the momentum indicator. The odds for another wave down are high. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $8,565, but in a case of an upside breakout, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $9,290 (technical resistance level).

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,465

WR2 - $10,072

WR1 - $9,509

Weekly Pivot - $9,126

WS1 - $8,593

WS2 - $8,191

WS3 - 7,623

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 3, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

After the EUR/USD pair has made series of Pin Bar candlesticks just above the key short-term support located at the level of 1.1185 some serious bounce has been expected, but it turned out the bulls have a fuel only to rally to the level of 1.1302. Then the Bearish Engulfing candlestick was made and the really reversed. The bulls might still be heading north, so any violation of the level of 1.1302 makes the rally towards the technical resistance located at the level of 1.1347 highly possible, so please keep an eye on the current developments at this market. Please notice the positive market conditions and strong momentum support the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1484

WR2 - 1.1410

WR1 - 1.1289

Weekly Pivot - 1.1235

WS1 - 1.1124

WS2 - 1.1056

WS3 - 1.0936

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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GBP/USD. Stumbling block: talks between London and Brussels ended in failure

The pound-dollar pair has been trading within the 24th figure for the third consecutive day. The pair's corrective growth is mainly due to the weakening of the US currency – the pound is still under pressure from many fundamental factors, which were aggravated by the brexit issue yesterday. Therefore, the upward dynamics of GBP/USD should be regarded as a temporary phenomenon, that is, as a reason to open short positions at a more favorable price.

The market is expected to be slightly volatile today: US trading platforms are closed due to the Independence Day holiday, while the economic calendar is almost empty on Friday. Therefore, the market is likely to digest previous events, which are mostly not in favor of the pound.

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First of all, we are talking about the negotiation process between London and Brussels. The first face-to-face meeting between negotiators since the pandemic started was held this week, but this turned out to be a total disaster: the parties decided to complete it ahead of schedule by canceling the planned early Friday meeting. The previous four days showed that the positions of Britain and the EU are still at different poles, while neither side intends to make concessions on key issues.

Disagreements regarding the catch of fish remain the most difficult. Britain considers it unacceptable that the EU demands that they ensure access for European fishermen to British fishing areas. According to London, such requirements are incompatible with the future status of the UK as an independent coastal state. The British want to annually review the issue of "admission" of European fishermen, but this proposal was categorically opposed by France (the French are generally the most ardent opponents of the British on the issue of Brexit). Also, the parties cannot agree on common competition rules for business. As it turned out, both sides interpret this term differently. According to the European Union, London's proposals put British businesses in a privileged position relative to the companies of the other members of the EU.

Another stumbling block is compliance with the rules and standards of the EU. It is worth noting here that London is currently holding parallel negotiations with Washington on a trade deal. Discussion of the future agreement began after US President Donald Trump's meeting with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Downing Street understands that the Americans can demand that Britain comply with its standards, so it is now important for the British to preserve the possibility of freedom in this matter, without burdening themselves with obligations to the EU.

The above points are the main, but not the only problematic issues for which we have not been able to find a common denominator. Commenting on the latest developments, the chief negotiator from the UK, David Frost, said the following: "...the negotiations were comprehensive and useful. But they also highlighted the significant differences that still remain between us on a number of important issues." In my opinion, this wording most clearly reflects the current state of affairs. The parties are ready to discuss key issues, but are not ready to make mutual concessions. Pessimistic comments were voiced yesterday by the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. According to her, the EU will not agree to conclude a Brexit deal at any cost, while the positions of London and Brussels "still differ significantly".

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The talks that were interrupted yesterday are due to resume next week – but they are unlikely to change the situation dramatically. According to rumors, in mid-or late July (that is, before or after the EU summit), Johnson will visit Brussels for face-to-face and personal talks with EU leaders and the EU leadership. In my opinion, in the current circumstances, only this step will be able to move the situation from the dead point. But, given the experience of last year's Brexit negotiations, we can assume that the British prime minister will escalate the situation on the eve of his visit – for example, by promoting the topic of the "Australian scenario". Australia in its trade relations with the EU and mostly follows the rules of the World Trade Organization, although there are separate agreements (for certain types of goods). According to Johnson, Britain can follow this relationship algorithm. The market reacted negatively to this initiative, as in fact it is about implementing a "hard scenario".

This fundamental background will put pressure on the British currency, therefore, short positions will be a priority for the GBP/USD pair in the medium term. From a technical point of view, longs are also a big question: on the daily chart, the pair is between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, as well as between the lines of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but above the Kumo cloud. The immediate goal of the downward movement is the 1.2400 mark - this is the Tenkan-sen line. The next support level is the upper border of the Kumo cloud - 1.2340 mark.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for July 3, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has made a local high at the level of 1.2528, but the rally had ended up with a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at its very top. The market is currently trading at the edge of the overbalance which is seen at the level of 1.2458. Any violation of this level will increase the sell-off towards the nearest technical support located at 1.2406 and 1.2362. Please notice, the market conditions are overbought, so despite strong and positive momentum the pull-back is still expected.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2667

WR2 - 1.2600

WR1 - 1.2441

Weekly Pivot - 1.2377

WS1 - 1.2213

WS2 - 1.2143

WS3 - 1.1969

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move even lower in the longer-term.

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Strong NFP data opens up space for the dollar to fall in the future (continuation of consolidation of EUR/USD pair and decline

The US economy continues to recover, and it seems that the pace of this process will only increase. Another question is whether it will be energetic or not.

The recent data on employment in America presented on Thursday turned out to be unexpected and noticeably more positive than predicted. The US economy received 4.8 million jobs in June against the forecast of an increase of 3,000,000. What is more important is that the May value of the indicator was revised upwards to 2,699,000. In addition, the figures for the unemployment rate, which declined to 11.1% against the expectation of a decrease to 12.3% from 13.3%.

Against this background, we have weak data on average hourly wages and trade surpluses. The hourly wages declined in annual terms to 5.0% against expectations of 5.3% and the level of 6.6% a year earlier. On a monthly basis, it declined by 1.2% in June, with a forecast of a decline of 0.7% and a May value of -1.0%.

The US stock market expectedly rose by employment values, virtually ignoring weak average hourly wages and trade surpluses. Investors were clearly interested in the very prospect of economic activity recovery through employment growth, which will lead to higher wages in the future and, in general, to improve the situation in the country's economy, unless, of course, the situation with COVID-19 emerges, which the American authorities themselves admitted. will not lead to a new, even more severe wave of crisis in the country.

The currency market responded to NFP data with a local strengthening of the dollar. It seems that investors have traditionally decided to respond to a strong report from the labor market with dollar purchases, but the situation has already begun to change with the opening of trading in America, when everything returned to normal.

Market participants expectedly chose more important statistics for themselves – unemployment and made decisions based on them. This is due to the fact that it is the situation on the labor market that is the basic guideline that allows us to demonstrate the process of economic recovery in the broad sense of normalizing the state of the economy after its forced closure due to the coronavirus pandemic in the spring of this year.

Assessing the shift of the market focus from COVID-19 to the fact that the American economy is recovering, it can be assumed that this scenario will cause a gradual weakening of the function of the dollar as a safe haven currency and the beginning of its global decline due to the transformation of its current protective asset function into a funding currency. In many respects, such a development scenario will be similar to what was noted after the acute phase of the 2008-09 crisis. As for its possible dynamics in the currency market in the near future, it can be argued that its weakening may continue next week if the topic of COVID-19 does not come up again with renewed strength.

Today is a holiday in the United States, so we do not expect noticeable dynamics in world markets, including foreign exchange.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading in the range 1.1165-1.1350. We consider it a priority to buy a pair from the bottom of the range.

The GBP/USD pair is also consolidating in the wake of the absence of American investors in the market due to a weekend in the United States. If the pair declines below the level of 1.2450, it may continue to decline to the level of 1.2345.

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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on July 3, 2020

As predicted, the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor launched the correction process. However, a much larger decline in the pound was expected. The fact is that the data on the labor market as a whole turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts. The dynamics are clearly positive, but a number of data suggest that this trend is not yet stable.

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If we talk about the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor, it causes only joy and delight. The unemployment rate fell from 13.3% to 11.1%, while it was forecast to fall to 12.3%. But what is much more important is the number of jobs outside of agriculture, which increased by 4,800,000 instead of 2,900,000. And not only is this a record increase in the number of jobs, but the previous value was revised for the better. In May, the number of jobs increased not just by 2,509,000, but by 2,699,000. The level of economic activity increased from 60.8% to 61.5%, although it was expected to grow only to 61.0%. So we can confidently say that the US labor market is clearly showing signs of recovery, which is an extremely positive factor. However, the dollar was held back from strengthening even further by data on applications for unemployment benefits. And this is despite the fact that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 1,482,000 to 1,427,000. The number of repeated applications increased from 19,231,000 to 19,290,000. The growth is of course insignificant, but first of all, we expected a decrease, and secondly, the total number of applications continues to be incredibly huge. This indicates that the recovery of the labor market will be long and difficult. This means that there is a possibility of a sudden deterioration of the situation. And this is what has limited the potential for the dollar to strengthen. However, optimistic moods clearly prevail.

Number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits (United States):

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Today is a day off in the United States to celebrate Independence Day. The holiday itself will be tomorrow, but because it fell on Saturday, Friday was made a day off. Nothing usually happens in the market in the absence of American traders. Or almost nothing. So at least some activity, if any, will occur only during the European session. Especially since the UK is set to publish the final data on business activity indices today. Given that final data on PMI in the manufacturing sector coincided with a preliminary estimate, most likely, we can expect the same thing for the business activity index in the service sector and composite PMI. The index should grow from 29.0 to 47.0 in the service sector. The composite index of business activity could grow from 30.0 to 47.6. And in theory, this is a growth factor. However, all these data are already included in the value of the pound, and this happened during the publication of the preliminary estimate. Also, it is worth paying attention to the fact that the publication of the final index of business activity in the manufacturing sector was accompanied by a local weakening of the pound. In addition, data on applications for unemployment benefits of course yesterday limited the growth of the dollar, but in general, the situation in the United States labor market is clearly improving. And this is the prevailing thought right now.

The composite purchasing managers' index (UK):

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In terms of technical analysis, you can see the initial rebound of the price from the area of 1.2530/1.2540, which is the high of the previous corrective movement. The recovery of dollar positions was not surprising to the market, given the strong news background in the United States, but the scale of the recovery was limited. As a result, the quote moved closer to the low of the day and formed a very remarkable consolidation in the range of 1.2455/1.2471, which is not quite typical dynamics for the pound/dollar currency pair.

Theoretically, this is a technical signal of accumulation, where speculative operations are highly likely to occur, on the basis of which we will see the next price jumps.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, a descending clock is fixed from the range level of 1.2770, the structure of which is not broken and the chance of resuming the downward course is still available on the market.

We can assume that the accumulation process in the range of 1.2455/1.2471 will lead to another surge of activity in the market, where if the price goes lower than 1.2450, a path will open towards 1.2400-1.2350, thereby signaling the restoration of the downward tact.

An alternative scenario considers a change in the text component, in which case the quote should be consolidated higher than 1.2550 on a four-hour period.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it can be seen that the indicators of technical instruments on the hourly and daily periods signal a purchase, by focusing the price on the conditional peak of the correction course.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on July 3 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Bears have brought all the buyers of the

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday's data on the US labor market quickly brought buyers of the pound to their senses, who managed to form a fairly powerful upward correction in the pair, coming close and testing the resistance of 1.2528, where a fairly good sell signal was formed yesterday. I described it in more detail in my forecast for the second half of the day. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bulls failed to break above the resistance of 1.2528, and a false breakout on the volume of this level after the data on the unemployment rate in the US led to a sell-off of GBP/USD to the support area of 1.2451, where all activity stopped. At the moment, while trading is conducted above the area of 1.2451, we can expect the pound to continue growing to a high of 1.2528, consolidating above which will necessarily lead the pair to a new resistance area of 1.2607, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of a decline in GBP/USD in the first half of the day, forming a false breakout at the level of 1.2451 will be a signal to open long positions. This may happen after the release of good reports on activity in the UK services sector, which plays a fairly important role for the economy. If there is no activity from the bulls in this range, it is best to postpone purchases until we update a larger area of 1.2386, from which all the growth occurred yesterday. Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for June 23 recorded another increase in short positions, which no longer reflects the current situation on the market. The new report will not be available until next Monday. During the week, there was an increase in short non-commercial positions from the level of 45,376 to the level of 48,170. During this time, long non-commercial positions rose from the level of 29,379 to the level of 29,654. As a result, the non-commercial net position increased its negative value to -18,516, against -15,998, which indicates that pressure in the market remains after the unsuccessful attempt by the bulls to reverse the downward trend.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound completely coped with their task and managed to protect the resistance of 1.2528, forming a fairly good sell signal from there. At the moment, the bears need to consolidate below the level of 1.2451, which will be a signal to open short positions while expecting the downward correction to resume to the area of a low of 1.2386, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows further, it is best to postpone sales until a false breakout forms at the level of 1.2528. But you can safely open short positions immediately for a rebound after testing the high of 1.2607, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. However, you should remember that the US is celebrating Independence Day today, and so US markets will be closed in the afternoon.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the uncertainty of traders with a further outlook.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).

Bollinger Bands

The downward movement will continue only after the breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.2435. Growth will be limited to the upper level at 1.2520.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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Trading plan for EURUSD for July 03, 2020

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Technical outlook:

EURUSD rallied to 1.1300 level yesterday to find resistance. It reversed sharply since then. It is now trading around 1.1247 level. The drop from 1.1422 to 1.1167 seems to be the recent boundary that is being worked upon. EURUSD had earlier rallied towards the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement around 1.1350 level to reach a lower high. Yet again, the currency pair rose to a lower high yesterday around 1.1300 level respectively. The next move should ideally be towards 1.1167 and lower towards 1.1000 levels as highlighted here. Only a break above 1.1422 resistance will change the structure.

Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 1.1422, target @ 1.1000 and lower.

Good luck!

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 3 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Sharp drop in average US earnings a bad

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday's data on the US labor market, where there was a good recovery, was spoiled by the indicator on average earnings of Americans, which seriously declined in June this year, which is a bad enough signal for the economy. Short positions on the euro, which were formed in the first half of the day after an unsuccessful breakout of the 1.1286 resistance and also led to forming a new level of 1.1297, as a result, pushed EUR/USD back to the middle of the 1.1241 channel, around which trading is currently being conducted. Volatility could remain low until the end of the week since today is Independence Day in the US. As for purchases of the European currency, you can look at them if a false breakout is formed at the support level of 1.1241, and also after the release of good data on activity in the service sector of the eurozone countries, since this can help the bulls return the pair to the weekly high of 1.1297, where I recommend fixing profits. If there is no movement from the level of 1.1241 in the first half of the day, and the trade moves under this range after the data, it is best to postpone long positions until the test of the week's lows in the area of 1.1193 and buy euros there while expecting a rebound and a correction of 25-30 points by the end of the day. Let me remind you that in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 23, there are some changes that could affect the growth prospects of the European currency. The growth of long positions was recorded a week earlier, but the growth of short positions was also noted, which indicates a possible slowdown in the bullish momentum in the short term. The report shows an increase in short non-commercial positions from the level of 69,988 to the level of 72,368, while long non-commercial positions also slightly increased from the level of 187,120 to the level of 190,816. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position increased again to 118,448, against 117,132, which indicates a slight slowdown in the growth of interest in buying risky assets at current prices.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers of the euro will wait for weak data on activity in the service sector, but a return to the support area of 1.1241, which is a kind of middle of the side channel this week, and consolidating under it will be a signal to open short positions. This scenario will lead to a repeated decline in EUR/USD to the low of 1.1193, the next test of which will increase pressure on the euro and pull down the pair to the lows of 1.1155 and 1.1106, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears are not active in the area of 1.1241, it is best to postpone short positions until updating the upper limit of the channel 1.1297, which was formed yesterday after the release of data on the US labor market. However, larger players will return to the market from a high of 1.1325, the test of which can lead to a downward correction of EUR/USD of 25-30 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the confusion of traders and the choice of the further direction of the pair.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).

Bollinger Bands

If the pair declines, the lower border of the indicator around 1.1210 will provide support. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.1285.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 3, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday's release of US data showed the following data: 4,800,000 new jobs were created in the non-agricultural sector in July against the expectation of 3,000,000, the share of the economically active population increased from 60.8% to 61.5%, unemployment fell from 13.3% to 11.1% against the forecast of 12.3%, the volume of factory orders for could have increased by 8.0% (forecast of 8.6%). In the end, this has led to an increase in stock prices 0.45% (S&P500), the euro by 13 points, the rise in the price of copper 0.58%, and a decrease in yields of US government bonds, 5-year bonds in particular, with 0.312% to 0.294%, and these are typical correlations of short-term optimism of American investors. Technically, there are prerequisites that this short-term optimism, at least for the dollar, will develop into a medium-term trend.

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The price returned to the consolidation range of 1.1195-1.1265 with the Marlin indicator declining on the daily scale chart. If the price falls below the lower limit of the 1.1195 range, the nearest target will open along the blue price channel at 1.1103.

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The price from above tested the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart. The entry of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator into the zone of negative values indicates a high probability of a repeated attack of the price for this support. Consolidating the price below the MACD line automatically leads to a subsequent attack at 1.1195. But today, the United States is celebrating the Independence Day holiday, so we are more likely to wait for price taking to continue.

Manufacturing orders in Germany, retail sales in the eurozone and business activity in the US non-manufacturing sector for June will be released on Monday. The forecast for the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is 49.5 points against 45.4 in May. This news can be decisive for the dollar to strengthen further.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on July 3, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose by seven points yesterday against the overall strengthening of the US dollar by 0.07%, probably due to the growth of industrial metals, which arose from yesterday's good data on employment in the US. Further strengthening of the US dollar will still return the aussie to the general downward trend with other currencies.

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At the moment, the price continues to move sideways above the level of 0.6900, the Marlin oscillator shows an intention to turn down inside the downward trend zone. In general, the Australian dollar will continue to be consolidated for three weeks, and any noticeable movement is unlikely since the US trading platforms are closed today.

In general, the situation and our previous forecast will remain the same; Consolidating the price at 0.6900 will lead to an attack on the signal level of 0.6842, overcoming which opens the door for the aussie to 0.6680.

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The price is consolidated above the indicator lines of balance and MACD on the four-hour chart, Marlin is in the growth zone, the trend is upward. When the price goes above the upper signal level of 0.6976, this will make it possible for the price to continue growing towards the goal of 0.7080 as an alternative scenario development.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on July 3, 2020

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair rose by a symbolic three points on Thursday. The reason was the growth of the stock market (S&P 500 +0.45%). Asian markets are experiencing moderate growth today: the Nikkei 225 0.23%, S&P/ASX 200 0.25%, Shanghai Composite 1.03%. The US market is closed today due to a national holiday.

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Yesterday's growth did not exceed the resistance of the balance indicator line (red) on the daily scale chart, and the price is consolidating under it. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves strictly along the border separating the growth and decline zones.

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The price is above the balance line, but the Marlin line is in the negative zone on the four-hour chart. As a result, according to the situation on both scales, the USD/JPY pair is in a neutral position, which can only be broken next week. The potential of the subsequent movement is decreasing, the goal of 107.05/08 is the area of support for the MACD lines on both charts that are under consideration.

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EURUSD testing ascending trendline support! Bounce incoming!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 120.752

Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline support, moving average support

Take Profit: 121.938

Reason for Take Profit: 100% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 120.265

Reason for Stop Loss: 100% Fibonacci extension, graphical swing low

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The EUR/USD pair tried to enter the 13th figure today. This attempt was unsuccessful, but at the same time, very indicative: against the background of quite strong nonfarm payrolls data, the dollar failed to show character and showed softness, allowing the EUR/USD bulls to update the weekly high. At the same time, buyers were also confused by their own success – they not only failed to stay within the 13th figure, but did not stay above the resistance level of 1.1260 (the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which coincides with the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart). Therefore, if you look at the situation from the technical side, the position of bulls and bears has not changed since yesterday: buyers still need to return above 1.1260, and sellers still need to settle below the lower line of the Bollinger Bands, that is, below the target of 1.1160. So far, neither side can achieve the desired result, so from a technical point of view, the pair continues to stay in a wide-range flat. But if we look at the situation from the point of view of fundamental analysis, then we can make broader conclusions. But first, let's sort through today's release.

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In general, the US nonfarm payroll report was able to surprise: as a rule, one of the components of a key release is to be out of the general rut of forecast levels, as if emphasizing the ambiguity of the situation. Therefore, the initial reaction of the market is often false: traders evaluate the significance of one or another indicator in the context of other indicators and finally make their verdict, deciding whether the glass is half full or half empty. We have witnessed a similar situation today.

First of all, it should be noted that after a fairly strong report from ADP, which was published the day before, the participants were morally ready to see the official figures in the green zone – especially against the background of a fairly optimistic consensus forecast. And in the end, the US labor market really did not disappoint. The number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector jumped by 4,800,000, while according to data from the Agency ADP, this indicator should have shown a much more modest result – 2,368,000. The increase in the number of employees in the private sector of the economy reached 4,000,767 (with a forecast of growth of 2,900,000), and this figure increased by 356,000 in the manufacturing sector (with a forecast of 311,000). The unemployment rate also came out in the green zone, confirming the downward trend relative to the previous months. With a growth forecast of up to 13.3%, this figure rose only to 11.1%. This is a very dubious achievement, but the trend itself is important here, which is certainly positive.

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The same cannot be said about salaries, which were much worse than the forecast values. The level of average hourly earnings on a monthly basis, first, remained in the negative area, and secondly, plunged to a multi-year low of -1.2%. This suggests that we should not expect an increase in inflation in the near future. Let me remind you that according to the latest data, the overall consumer price index in monthly terms, with a forecast growth of up to 0.2%, was again in the negative area, falling to -0.1%. In annual terms, experts expected to see the overall CPI at 0.2%, while the indicator came out at 0.1%. Core inflation figures, excluding food and energy prices, also disappointed. In monthly terms, the core index fell to -0.1%, and in annual terms-to 1.2%.

Thus, the inflationary component of nonfarm became the only (but very significant) "fly in the ointment" of today's release. At first, investors focused their attention on this nuance, but then the scales tipped in the direction of the dollar. In part, this was facilitated by US President Donald Trump. Commenting on today's report, Trump said that it is "another proof of the recovery of the US economy." Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow was more reserved in his assessments, but still acknowledged the positive dynamics.

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In addition, the dollar reacted to the news from the front of the fight against coronavirus. Let me remind you that the rate of COVID-19 spread is rapidly growing in the United States – if a month ago 15-25,000 cases of infection were registered per day, then yesterday a daily anti-record was recorded: more than 50,000 cases of infection. However, a report was published in the health sciences website medRxiv today, according to which American molecular biologists have made significant progress in developing a vaccine. It is noted that antibodies to coronavirus were formed from all study participants, even at minimal doses, their number is two to three times the number of antibodies in humans who recover from COVID-19. The Americans have successfully passed two stages of testing and are now starting the third. However, similar news has appeared before – but none of the pharmacists has yet completed the third, final stage of testing, after which the drug can be prepared for mass use. Therefore, the above fundamental factor will have a short-term impact.

US trading platforms will be closed on July 4: the United States will celebrate Independence Day. Therefore, the main news of a fundamental nature will come from Europe – there will be published PMI indices in the production and services sectors. However, they are unlikely to be able to reverse the situation for the pair – only if the final estimates differ from the initial ones.

To sum up, it should be noted that the EUR/USD bears were only able to repel a bullish attack today, but at the same time they were not able to organize a downward rally. This suggests that the dollar is still a vulnerable currency. In the near future, traders will again switch to the topic of the spread of coronavirus in the United States, which means that buyers of EUR/USD will have another chance to win the 13th figure. The situation has not changed from a technical point of view: if the bulls consolidate above the resistance level of 1.1260 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator coincides with the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart), the Ichimoku indicator will form a bullish Parade of Lines signal, which will open the way for them to 1.1360 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe). Long positions to this price barrier should be considered only after consolidating above the 1.1260 mark.

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