USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 12, 2015

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Overview:


The USD/CAD pair established the previous consolidation zone between the price levels of 1.1560 and 1.1670. This price zone roughly corresponds to 61.8% prominent WEEKLY Fibonacci level. Bullish breakout above it allowed bulls to reach new highs around 1.2770.


The USD/CAD bulls have been defending the recent INTRADAY SUPPORT around 1.2300 (broken 79.6% Fibonacci Level). Hence, a new bullish swing was established without further retesting of the DAILY SUPPORT zone depicted on the daily chart around 1.1950.


The market looked overbought since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels. Hence, the current bearish correction was anticipated in the previous articles.


The nearest SUPPORT level to meet the USD/CAD pair is located around 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level). It has been defended by the bulls since a bullish breakout took place on January 21.


DAILY closure again below the price level of 1.2300 exposes the next DAILY SUPPORT around 1.2000 where the backside of the upper limit of the breached channel is located.


On the other hand, the bullish persistence above 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.2760-1.2780 (low probability).


Trading recommendations:


Wait for DAILY closure below 1.2300 for SHORTING the USD/CAD pair. TP levels should be set at 1.2250 and 1.2170. Stop Loss should be set as DAILY closure again above the ENTRY levels (1.2300).


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 12, 2015

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The market has been pushing lower aggressively after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVELS around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.


The pair has lost almost 800 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450, especially after the obvious MONTHLY closure of January took place below 1.2000.


During the past few weeks, the EUR/USD bears have been challenging historical lows that were established back in 2005 and 2003. Some bullish recovery was finally witnessed by the end of January and the beginning of February.


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On the daily chart the market looked oversold below the price levels of 1.2000 and 1.1900 (prominent psychological SUPPORT).


As it was suggested in the previous articles, conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish pullback looking for better prices to SELL the pair off (R1 at 1.1550 and R2 at 1.1700).


On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1420-1.1450 is a recently established SUPPLY zone on the H4 chart. Short-term SELL positions can be taken there. Stop loss should be placed slightly above the price level of 1.1530 (the recent high).


However, risky traders should note that DAILY fixation again below 1.1260, which is a recent DEMAND level depicted on the H4 chart, activates a DOUBLE-TOP reversal pattern exposing the recent lows around 1.1110 for retesting enhanced by the bearish breakout that took place outside the depicted bullish channel on the H4 chart.




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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 12, 2015

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The previous consolidation movement extended between the price levels of 1.5550 and 1.5770. It represented a period of indecision on the market after such a long bearish rally that started off 1.7100 and 1.6500.


Bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposed lower targets. Bears have already pushed towards the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960 which have not been visited since July 2013.


As mentioned in the previous articles, conservative traders should have been waiting for the current bullish pullback towards the recent SUPPLY zone around 1.5280-1.5320 for a low-risk SELL entry.


This SUPPLY zone also corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted daily channel where bearish pressure was anticipated on the last retesting that took place last week.


This bearish scenario was once threatened on Thursday. On Friday, it was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlestick that pushed the GBP/USD pair again inside the channel.


Today, another bullish breakout scenario is being attempted. By the end of today, daily closure should be watched for confirmation (above 1.5300).


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Today, the GBP/USD pair has spiked above the price zone of 1.5280-1.5320 (prominent SUPPLY ZONE), which is failing to provide enough SUPPLY for the pair.


On January, the GBP/USD pair has shown bullish recovery off the price level of 1.5050. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been showing an inverted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.


The price level of 1.5280 corresponded to the upper limit of the depicted H4 channel as well as 50% Fibonacci level of the recent bearish swing that extended between 1.5600 and 1.4976.


Hence, daily closure above 1.5340 confirms the reversal pattern exposing the price levels of 1.5500 and 1.5590 (full projection target of the reversal pattern).


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EUR/NZD analysis for February 12, 2015

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading upwards. The price has tested the level of 1.5478. Our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5445 was held successfully, which is a sign that buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.5445, we may see a possible testing of the level of 1.5590. We got resistance level at the price of 1.5340. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe weak supply around the price of 1.5340.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5406


R2: 1.5541


R3: 1.5523


Support levels:


S1: 1.5263


S2: 1.5219


S3: 1.5147


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).




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Gold analysis for February 12, 2015

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Overview :


Since our last analysis gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,216.59. According to the H4 time frame, we can see reaction from buyers and test the resistance level at the price of 1,228.00-1,230.00. According to the daily time frame, we have supply in a volume below the average. Major resistance level is still around the price of 1,307.00 (swing high like resistance) and intraday resistance is around the price of 1,230.00-1,252.00. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows (buy on the dips). Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,220.00, we may see a possible testing of the level of 1,200.00 before any larger bullish reaction.


Daily Fibonacci pivot points :


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,233.36


R2: 1,247.13


R3: 1,255.56


Support levels :


S1: 1,211.16


S2: 1,202.73


S3: 1,188.96


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).




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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 12, 2015

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Overview :



  • In the long term, the price of USD/CHF pair is still moving between 0.9054 and 0.9492. The key level is set at the spot of 0.9277 for a while. It should be noted that the level of 0.9277 is representing the 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels and the price has set above the strong support of 0.9105. It s equally important that these levels are coinciding between 38.2% and 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the same chart. Otherwise, the pair has already formed a strong resistance at this level of 0.9492 and it is now approaching from it in order to test it. Therefore, the USD/CHF pair will be a downside momentum, which is rather convincing. The structure of the fall is not corrective. It will be a good sign to sell below 0.9492 with a first target of 0.9330 and it will call for a downtrend in order to continue bearish towards 0.9277 and then towards 0.9212. Furthermore, it is also should be noted that the price at 0.9210 will possible forme a minor support. So, it will be saturation around 0.9210 to rebound the pair, for that the market is going to start showing the signs of bullish market. As a result, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.9210 with a first target of 0.9323 and continue towards the level of 0.9405.



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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 12, 2015

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Overview :



  • The market is continuing to show signs of strength following the break level of 1.2466. Therefore, the resistance of the USD/CAD pair has broken and it was turned to support this week. Furthermore, the pair has already formed a strong support at the level of 1.2460. So the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2466 with the first target of 1.2574 and continues towards 1.2624 (the first weekly resistance). However, If the trend cannot break this level and closure above it (1.2624), it will be a downside momentum, which is rather convincing. The structure of the fall is not corrective, for that the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at 0.2624 and it will be a good sign to sell at this level with the targets of 1.2574 and 1.2521.



Trading Recommendations :



  • Due to the previous events, the price is still between the levels of 1.2624 and 1.2521.

  • Buy above the level of 1.2466 with target at 1.2774 and then at 1.2620.

  • Below 1.2624 look for further downside with a target of 1.2521.



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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 12, 2015

General overview for 12/02/2015 10:45 CET


The market broke out of the supply zone just to hit the upper boundary of the golden channel and sharply reversed. It bounced back right from the weekly pivot at the level of 1.2543 and now it should continue even lower, but first, the price must break out of the golden channel in order to make a new low below the level of 1.2350. Only an impulsive wave progression that violates the supply zone invalidates the scenario.


Support/Resistance:


11273 2- WR1


1.2653 - 1.2695 - Supply Zone


1.2565 - Intraday Resistance


1.2543 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Any breakout below the level of 1.2543 is bearish and daytraders should consider opening sell orders only. Please set the SL above the level of 1.2565 and TP should be left open for now.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 12, 2015

General overview for 12/02/2015 10:05 CET


The current wave progression might be completed if we take into account the recent spike down to the intraday support at the level of 134.71. Nevertheless, to confirm this, the market must break below the golden trend line lower channel line and impulsively continue lower violating the weekly pivot and weekly pivot support at the level of 133.11. Please remember that this is a corrective wave 4 and there is one more wave to the downside expected that goes below the low of the wave 3 eventually.


Support/Resistance:


137.64 - Technical Resistance| Wave 4 Projected Target|


137.27 - WR2


136.68 - Intraday Resistance


134.71 - Intraday Support


134.21 - Weekly Pivot


133.11 - WS1


Trading recommendations:


Any breakout below the level of 134.71 is bearish and daytraders should consider opening sell orders only. Please set the SL rather tight (20-30 pips) and TP at the level of 134.21 and 133.11.


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#USDX technical analysis for February 12, 2015

The dollar index is preparing for a breakout to new highs as the price holds support and approaches important resistance levels. A break above 95.27 will be a bullish signal with 95.90 as first target. The longer-term trend with 100-101 target remains valid.


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Green line = resistance


Blue line = support


Support is found at 93.40. The short-term support by the Ichimoku cloud is found at 94.10. The trend remains short-term and bullish but we are close to important resistance of 95.20-95.30. Breaking this resistance will be a very bullish sign. A rejection at the resistance will bring the index back towards the Ichimoku cloud support at 94.


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The daily chart remains bullish as the tenkan-sen support is found at 94.20 and is flatting out. The same with the kijun-sen support at 93.50. This flattening move by the index is a consolidation and a pause to the longer-term uptrend. I remain bullish for longer term with 100-101 target.


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Gold technical analysis for February 12, 2015

Gold price has broken the bearish flag and has reached my minimum target of $1,220. Gold price is now trying to back test the break down area and there are increased chances of rejection and another push lower towards $1,200.


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Black line = resistance


Green lines = bearish flag


The bearish flag was broken downwards. Price has reached my target of $1,220, but the trend remains bearish despite the recent bounce to $1,230. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud and below the black trend line resistance. I expect gold prices to be rejected at the short-term resistance of $1,230. I believe that as long as the price is below $1,240, the trend is bearish for the short term.


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Gold price has finally reached the 61.8% retracement I was calling for a few days now. The internal price structure tells me that the decline is not over as long as the price is below $1,240. The next target is at $1,200. Breaking below $1,190 will not be a good sign for bulls. I prefer to remain short.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 12 - 2015

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Technical summary:


We have seen a peak above minor resistance at 1.5415, but not yet a close above this minor resistance. So, we can not yet argue that wave (ii) ended at 1.5198. A close above 1,5415 on the 4-hour chart and more important a break above resistance at 1.5489 will confirm that wave (ii) has ended and that wave (iii) is developing. Short-term minor support is now found at 1.5320. If this support is able to protect the downside for the close above 1.5415 and more importantly the break above 1.5489, then we should look for wave (iii) higher towards at least 1.6668.


Trading recommendation:


We are long EUR from 1.5255 and will move our stop higher to 1.5275.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 12 - 2015

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Technical summary:


As expected, after the break above 135.36, the correction from 130.14 has extended higher towards 137.65 as the ideal corrective target. In the short term, we are looking for a minor consolidation before the final rally higher towards the ideal corrective target to end wave (iv) and set the stage for the final decline lower to 125.98 to end the c wave of the expanded flat correction, that began at the 145.69 high in late December 2014.


Trading recommendation:


We are looking for a EUR selling opportunity at 137.55 and will place our stop at 138.90.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendations on Gold for February 12, 2015

The yellow metal again ended lower at the previous session due to the strong US dollar. The core retail sales and unemployment claims are due. Any positive readings will ignite selling pressure again. In the recent days, the yellow metal lost its momentum affected by the strong US economic data and uncertainty in Greece. At yesterday's Eurogroup meeting, no agreement was made. The final agreement is expected at the nearest Eurogroup meeting next Monday. The metal fell to a month low. The stronger US data raises hope that the US Federal Reserve will lift the key interest rate earlier than later. At yesterday's session, we recommended fresh selling below $1,228.00 with the targets at $1,225.00 and $1,217.00. The metal made a low exactly at $1,216.50. But, the metal managed to close above $1,217.00. If a daily close is below $1,217.00, bears can challenge $1,207.00, $1,204.00, and $1,199.00. The weekly key support level is set at $1,216.00. Until the metal prices close and trade below $1,266.00, use every rise to sell. Intraday resistance exists at $1,245.00. We still recommend positional selling from $1,300.00 odd levels and $1,266.00 with the target at $1,230.00. All our targets can be achieved. Now, consider fresh selling only below $1,216.00 with the target at $1,200.00.


Resistance: $1,226.00, $1,231.00, $1,245.00.


Support: $1,216.00, $1207.00, $1,199.00.


Selling below $1,216.00.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 12, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as EU Economic Summit minutes, Industrial Production m/m, and German Final CPI m/m. The US will release a batch of economic reports such as the 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Business Inventories m/m, Unemployment Claims, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to meidum volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1367.

Strong Resistance:1.1360.

Original Resistance: 1.1349.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1338.

Target Inner Area: 1.1311.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1284.

Original Support: 1.1273.

Strong Support: 1.1262.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1255.





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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 12, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, PPI y/y, and Core Machinery Orders m/m. The US will release a batch of economic reports such as 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Business Inventories m/m, Unemployment Claims, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.10.

Resistance. 2: 120.47.

Resistance. 1: 120.23.

Support. 1: 119.95.

Support. 2: 119.71.

Support. 3: 119.48.





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Daily analysis of USDX for February 12, 2015

The bullish road continues to be the main scene on the daily chart, as the USDX is trying to reach the resistance level of 95.45 in the near term. We could expect more high levels to be reached in the coming days, but in a very conservative way, as the USDX could start to perform little corrective moves in order to get into the ride at the 95.45 level.


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We could say that the USDX performed a breakout at the 94.87 level successfully. There is a solid bullish structure developing currently, as this instrument could reach very easily the resistance level of 95.16 from the technical viewpoint. If the USDX does a breakout at that level, we could expect more rallies towards the 95.57 level.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.45 / 96.78


Dailychart's support levels: 94.18 / 93.02


H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.16 / 95.57


H1 chart's support levels: 94.87 / 94.38




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.16, take profit is at 95.57, and stop loss is at 94.76.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 12, 2015

On the daily chart, we are still watching a bullish pattern formation, as the GBP/USD pair is trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5247, but it appears that level seems to be much stronger and no easy to break it. Anyway, in the very near term, we could expect more bullish moves at least until the resistance zone of 1.5491, but on the whole, the GBP/USD pair is bearish.


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The 200 SMA on the H1 chart is still acting as dynamic support on the GBP/USD pair. In the first hours of Thursday's session, the pair is forming some kind of bullish pattern in order to do a breakout at the resistance level of 1.5249. If successful, it's expected to rise until the upside target at the level of 1.5302, where a 1:1 trade could take place.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5247 / 1.5491


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5025 / 1.4841


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5249 / 1.5302


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5210 / 1.5166




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place long (buy) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5249, take profit is at 1.5302, and stop loss is at 1.5196.


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Technical analysis of Silver for February 12, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver has remained unchanged while Gold hit lows yesterday, as seen here. The metal is holding fibonacci 0.618 support level very well at $16.50. It is expected to resume rally any time now, towards $18.90 and $21.00 at the sessions to come. It is recommended to remain long for now and consider adding further positions at the current levels. Bulls are very much poised to extend rally through higher levels till $16.50 and $15.50 remains intact. Immediate support is seen at $16.50 levels (interim), followed by $16.20, $15.50 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/50 (interim), followed by $18.40.50, $18.90 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $16.00, the target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of Gold for February 12, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has dropped down to $1,220.00/21.00 levels as it was expected yesterday. The metal is bouncing off higher, forming a morning star candlestick pattern on the 4H chart as seen here, indicating a potential reversal. Also please note that Gold has held fibonacci 0.618 support at $1,220.00 levels as expected. It is recommended to remain long and add fresh long positions now, with risk at $1,170.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at $1,120.00 (interim), followed by $1,205.00, $1,170.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,245.00 (interim), followed by $1,285.00, $1,307.00 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $1,170.00, the target is open.


Good luck!




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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 12, 2015

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has continued to move in a sideways manner, with neither significant upward or downward movement. However, the sideways movement is currently happening in the context of a downtrend, and it is assumed that the price can touch the support line at 1.1250.


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USD/CHF: The outlook for the USD/CHF pair is bullish, but this is currently a choppy market. The currency trading instrument would go up when the EUR/USD goes down (or the other way round, when the EUR/USD goes up). As it is said, counter-trend pullbacks in the market would simple offer opportunities to buy at better prices.


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GBP/USD: This is a bull market – albeit it should be approached with caution. Bulls have made their effort noticeable so far but the upward movement is a kind of precarious. The accumulation territories at 1.5200 and 1.5150 should defend the existing outlook as a break below them could mean the end of the bullish signal in the market.


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USD/JPY: Since the bullish breakout that occurred on February 6, 2015, the USD/JPY pair has moved upward by about 300 pips. The supply level at 120.50 is now under siege and should be breached to the upside very soon. In addition, some fundamental figures are expected today and they should have impact on the markets.


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EUR/JPY: Owing to the general weakness in the Yen, this currency trading instrument has been able to go upwards, resulting in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. Indeed, this instrument should continue its upwards journey.


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Daily analysis of Silver for February 11, 2015

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Overview


From the today's H4 chart we see that the metal is still trading between the support level of 16.75 and below the resistance level of 17.00. Silver has failed to break the resistance level yesterday and bounced from it. It took a slightly downward move and currently it is retesting the support level of 16.75 again. Presently, we suggest waiting for closing above the resistance level of 17.00 in case it bounces from the support level to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target of few pips below the resistance level of 17.50. After breaking this resistance level, silver would open the way towards the resistance level of 17.70, which means more bullish signals.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (17.70), R2 (17.50), R1 (17.00), S1 (16.75), S2 (16.50), S3(16.20).




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