Global macro overview for 31/05/2018

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data published yesterday had indicated, that in May in the private sector of the American economy, the number of jobs increased by 178,000. That's less than the consensus (190,000), but still a decent figure. At the same time, the previous reading has been revised downwards (from 204,000 to 163,000). A decent rate of creation of new jobs is not shocking anyone. It also seems that with such low unemployment (below 4%), the pace of employment growth must finally slow down. Therefore, the key carrier of information on the condition of the labor market, especially in the context of the Fed's policy outlook, is the growth of wages. This data, of course, we will get to know on Friday, but already the secret of the power of broader trends has been abolished by the Beige Book of the Fed containing a description of the economic situation in individual regions.

The Beige Book prepared for the 12-13 June FOMC meeting, covering information through 21 May, indicated few material changes in the trajectory of economic growth in most districts. A large number of districts reported acceleration in manufacturing and industrial activity, but the outlook for employment and wage growth was largely unchanged with most districts reporting moderate increases in employment but only modest increases in wages.

It looks like the global investors will have to wait for the Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls data to make themselves more familiar with the latest details in the US job market direction.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains locked in a horizontal zone between the levels of 267.96 - 274.15 in neutral market conditions. This consolidation might take some time as the broader technical pattern that is being formed at the larget time frames looks like a triangle. The key level to the upside is still the zone between the levels of 274.15 - 273.42. The key technical support is seen at the level of 259.36.

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