Global macro overview for 30/07/2018

The weekend did not offer any new data that could set the sentiment of the global investors and drag the non-directional trade from the previous week. A key publication in the form of GDP from the US proved to be difficult to figure out. On the one hand, the dynamics of 4.1% was the first since 2014 reading above 4.0% and is the best proof of how the foundations protect the dollar. Final real sales (or domestic demand) amounted to 5.1%, the highest since the crisis. The Americans use the resources saved by the tax reform, and although such pace is unsustainable in the long run, it now supports the Fed's striving for further interest rate increases. Nonetheless, pessimists will get stuck that the GDP growth was still by 0.1 percentage point. worse than consensus forecasts, so not everything played as analysts hoped for. In addition, the quarterly PCE Core Inflation indicator weakened to 2.0%. from 2.2 percent, although it must be remembered that the members of the Fed did not announce any victory in the fight against low inflationary pressure, so these data will not change their current strategy.

However, in general terms, the USD did not get a strong impulse to strengthen or weaken, so the rest of the currency market remained in limited volatility conditions and these directly fluctuations continue into the new trading week.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CHF technical picture at the H4 time frame. The current range zone is located between the levels of 0.9900 - 0.9978, so it is just below the psychological level of 1.0000. Moreover, there is an important trend line, that will act as a support for the price around the level of 0.9910 as well. The recent Doji candlestick formation indicates, that the bear camp is still in control over this market, so the short-term outlook remains bearish.

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