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Global macro overview for 31/01/2018

Over the past few weeks, there has been a substantial change in the rhetoric of the US president, Donald Trump, who after the adoption of the tax reform by US Congress, decided to repeatedly display the achievements of its administration. One of the longest speeches about the state was a show of bragging evidence that Trump is on the road to the implementation of his electoral postulates - including the return of the US to the status of an international superpower.

In the first message, Donald Trump clearly limited the presence of quite sharp mentions that could divide not only American society, but also the Congressmen elected by them. The main reason for this is the attempt to push through a substantial infrastructure package, which, given the current state of public finances, should be seen as quite a challenge. Trump also draws attention to the inefficient immigration policy, which in his opinion is becoming obsolete. One of the "modern" solutions is the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico, the completion of which would result in almost a hundred percent recording of the flow of people from the south. It should be remembered that this type of move will have a long-term impact on the recorded growth rate. In the current situation the relatively inflexible production potential, the only hope for a gradual increase in wealth by the US remains a relatively open immigration policy. In that situation, Trump should consider easing his point of view regarding the US immigration rights soon.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains locked in a consolidation zone between the levels of 108.12 - 109.76 in oversold conditions. The momentum indicator is pointing upward, so a possibility of a relief rally towards the level of 110.00 increases. The larger time frame trend remains down.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -