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Global macro overview for 30/01/2018

USD slowly began to retrace last week's sell-off from the three-year lows. Although the last phase of the sale of the American currency can be seen in terms of overshooting and a clear detachment from fundamentals or fair value based on the relative valuation of assets, the road from reversing the negative trend is very far away.

The tonight's appearance of the US President Donald Trump 02:00 am GMT may be crucial for the US Dollar future. The US administration has aroused much controversy with recent comments regarding the strength of the currency. Milk has spilled and a radical change in the rhetoric that has been known for years will not be easily removed from the awareness of market participants. The future of the NAFTA agreement and, more broadly, trade policy is also a lot of emotions. The chaos of Trump's presidency has obviously injured the Dollar and made the fundamentals forgotten. Sentiment towards the American currency is so bad that investors will try to use every rebate to sell it. A few days ago (in Davos), the President of the United States amazed showing a rather restrained face. In his own country, in the context of the upcoming November elections and fatal quotations, he may reach for proven means or an acute, protectionist rhetoric known from the time of the election campaign. In that situation, the US Dollar might again weaken across the board.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index at the H4 time frame. The market tried two times to break through the technical resistance at the level of 89.62 but failed. Currently, the price is reversing towards the nearest technical support at the level of 88.45 and due to the weak momentum, the breakout lower is still possible.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -