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Global macro overview for 30/01/2018

Eurozone data for fourth quarter of 2017 remain solid as they are led by strong German data. Eurozone Preliminary Flash GDP posted a respectable gain of 0.6%, unchanged from the Q3 release. On the yearly basis, the GDP was as well in line with expectations at the level of 2.6% Nevertheless, the market participants are expecting some weak consumer numbers out of Germany this week (Preliminary CPI is expected to contract 0.5% and Retails Sales are expected at the level of -0.4% tomorrow), which could hurt investor confidence and send the European stock indices downwards. If the markets prove accurate and these indicators do point downwards, investors will be hoping that they are only a temporary dip, as the eurozone and German consumer numbers have generally been strong so far. The other concern is the appreciating Euro, which is still climbing higher towards the level 1.2500. This level of exchange rate might start to hurt the exporters soon and affect company earnings.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has finished a three wave corrective structure at the level of 1.2335 and rallied towards the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.2435.The momentum is clearly increasing, so if the pace of rally will sustain, then the price might even start to test the level of 1.2495 before the market conditions become overbought.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -