Trading plan for 12/03/2018

The week begins with the strength of risky assets after the risk-on support of the US labor market report and the ongoing discussion about the exemptions from the Trump customs policy. The political scandal in Japan weighs on USD / JPY. NZD, AUD, NOK are strong. The stock market shines green again. So des Bitcoin.

On Monday 12th March, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on 10-y Bond Auction in the US and Federal Budget Balance.

USD/JPY analysis for 12/03/2018:

USD / JPY fell to the level of 106.35 in response to new information about the Muritomo scandal. The case concerns the sale of a plot in Osaka Prefecture for 14 percent values for a private school in which the wife of Prime Minister Abe was the honorary director. Today, Aso Finance Minister confirmed that changes were made to Muritomo's several Ministry documents. Shortly after the situation, Abe said in media that he feels responsible for the MOF land sale document alterations and that it's a situation that has shaken public faith. He wants finance minister Aso to take responsibility for the investigation and delegates Aso's responsibility to clarify full facts of document alterations. So far it does not look like a major political turmoil is growing in Japan, but who knows what will investigation reveal.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The initial market reaction to the news was a drop from the level of 106.95 to 106.40, but now the bulls are defending the support at the mentioned level. The market tried three times to break out above the trend line resistance around the level of 107.00, but so far no avail. The market conditions are overbought, so the further downside slide toward the level of 105.53 and 105.25. If those two levels are clearly violated, then the next technical support is seen at the weekly time frame at the level of 104.42.

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