EUR/USD
EURO:The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 4.6% in March 2015 from 4.0% in February 2015. The three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 in the period from January 2015 to March 2015 increased to 4.1%, from 3.8% in the period from December 2014 to February 2015. The inflation rate in Germany is expected to be 0.4% in April 2015. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office also reported that the consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.1% on March 2015.
Upcoming data: The eurozone macro calendar offered a data-heavy day. Today, traders eye German retail sales data, French consumer spending, Spanish flash CPI on Y/Y, Spanish flash GDP q/q, Germany unemployment change, CPI flash estimate y/y, core CPI flash estimate y/y, and unemployment changes. Things should pick up rapidly by today however as we have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward to. We expect positive data from Germany and Spanish. The euro CPI and unemployment are likely to show positive readings as well.
Technical view: The pair has been extending its bullish footprints for five consecutive days. The pair was rejected at 161.8 FE, 1.1191 in the daily chart. At yesterday's session, the pair made a high at 1.1188 but closed at 1.1128. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note. The euro is trading at 1.1115 against USD compared to Wednesday's close price of 1.1128. The pair managed to give a break on the upside in the strong supply zone around 1.1055 and closed above that. The immediate resistance was found at 1.1250 20Wsma. We expect the near-term cap between 1.1250 and 1.1315. As of now, the pair gained 380 pips with our correction. In case the price breaches above 1.1250 2Dsma, another strong resistance zone will be found at 1.1300 and 1.1315 10Dsma and 100Dema respectively. Technically speaking, until the price closes below 100dsma/ema, the bearish views remain in play. Bulls have only 100 to 150 pips on the upside. Further spikes will favor new sell trades with sl 1.1250 on a weekly closing basis or use sl 1.1315 and start selling.
Intraday view:Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1191 and weekly resistance is seen at 1.1250. Intraday support is found at 1.1110 and 1.1067. Today and tomorrow's trading pattern is framed between 1.1030 and 1.1250. Either side break will provide further room to trade aggressively. The previous supply zone at 1.1030 and 1.1055 is currently acting as a support zone. For risky traders we recommend selling with sl 1.1129 for targets at 1.1070 and 1.1050. Panic will be triggered below 1.1030. In case German and European data print positive readings, we will recommend buying above 1.1130 with targets at 1.1150, 1.1190, 1.1230 whereas 1.1250 is the crucial trend-change level on a weekly closing basis.
Trade: Selling with sl 1.1129
Buying above 1.1130
