GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 24. COT reports indicate a gradual increase in short positions on the pound.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

A 3-week quarantine has been introduced in the UK due to the abrupt spread of coronavirus, which can seriously affect the pace of economic growth, which will lead to a slowdown of more than 5.0% in the second quarter of 2020. Against this background, the pound remains under pressure in a pair with the US dollar, but the bears failed to break through this year's lows in the area of 1.1470 yesterday. In the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for March 17, the lowest growth of long non-commercial positions was from 56,077 to 56,575, while short non-commercial positions rose sharply from the level of 29,749 to 37,935, indicating a gradual return of pressure on the British pound. As a result, the non-commercial net position also fell to 18,640 from 26,328. However, as we can see on the chart, the British pound is already at very different lows, and the situation has changed dramatically, as reports are released with a weekly delay. High market volatility in recent years will not allow you to rely on COT reports. Important fundamental statistics on activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector will be released today, which may return pressure on the British pound and pull it under the lows of the year. The bulls need to continue to protect the 1.1470 support, a signal to open short positions will be when a false breakout forms on it following the release of data. A more important task for buyers is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1653, which will lead to a major upward correction to the resistance area of 1.1798 and 1.1926, where I recommend taking profits, since it will not be possible to break above these ranges without improving the situation. If the GBP/USD falls below 1.1470, it is best to look at new long positions only after updating the levels of 1.1400 and 1.1300.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The task of sellers of the pound will be to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1653, which will be a clear signal to open short positions, especially if this coincides with weak data on the services sector, which will have a negative impact on the British economy. A break in support of 1.1470 will raise the pressure on the pair, which will open a direct path to the lows of 1.1400 and 1.1300, where I recommend taking profits. If there are no sellers at the 1.1653 level in the first half of the day after the reports are released, then it is best to postpone short positions until the resistance test of 1.1798, or sell immediately on a rebound from the weekly high of 1.1926.


Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which more indicates a lack of desire to sell than buy the pound.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.1470 will lead to a sharp decline in the pound. A break of the upper boundary in the 1.1670 area will increase the likelihood of an upward correction.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and
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