Global macro overview for 15/02/2018

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, measuring activity in the New York area, fell to 13.1 from 17.7 in January, while it was expected to rise to 18. In contrast, the Fed index from Philadelphia jumped to 25.8 from 22.2 with a forecast of 21 6. Maybe the last week's sudden drops on Wall Street was more reflected in the mood among entrepreneurs from the New York area only?

In the other news, the number of unemployment claims increased last week by 7,000. up to 230k (threshold 228k, previously 221k). Despite the increase, it should be remembered that it is still a relatively low level anyway. The PPI number was released at the expected level of 0.4% after -0.1% slide last month.( PPI measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation). It confirms yesterdays better than expected CPI data and indicates rising inflationary pressure.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. In general, this recent data package is another reason (after claims for benefits) that the USD is being still sold across the board. The market is now approaching the technical support at the level of 88.45 after a failed attempt to break through the black channel dynamic resistance around the level of 90.50.The market conditions are oversold and some kind of bounce is being expected.

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