Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for February 15, 2018

EUR/GBP has been quite impulsive with bullish swings, bouncing off the 0.8750 price area inside the volatile corrective range between 0.8750 and 0.90. The recent positive economic reports from the eurozone helped EUR to gain momentum against GBP quite well. The pair is expected to continue its consolidation inside a trading range until a breakout from the range. Today, Italian Trade Balance report was published with an increase to 5.25B from the previous figure of 4.84B which was expected to be at 4.44B and the eurozone's Trade Balance was also published with an increase to 23.8B from the previous figure of 22.0B which was expected to be at 22.4B. Despite upbeat economic reports, EUR failed to sustain the bullish momentum which was expected. Ahead of the UK Retail Sales report which is expected to be positive at 0.5%, increasing from the previous negative value of -1.5%, the market sentiment has already shifting towards the GBP side. Today, the UK does not present economic reports to support it gains while positive economic reports from the eurozone indicates the market sentiment favoring GBP ahead of the economic reports. As for the current scenario, the corrective indecision is expected to continue in this pair until the price breaks out of this range whereas GBP is expected to gain momentum for the coming days over EUR.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently holding at the edge of the trend line support above 0.8850 area. If the price breaks below 0.8850 which is also the trend line support, the price is expected to proceed lower towards the support area of 0.8700-50. Otherwise, a bounce off the trend line is expected to inject bullish pressure in the pair with a target towards 0.90. As the price remains inside the range between 0.8750 and 0.90, the corrective range is expected to continue.

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