Global macro overview for 12/07/2017

Global macro overview for 12/07/2017:

The UK Job market data were slightly better than expected. The number of workers applying for jobless benefits decreases in June after three months of rising to the level of 6.0k from 7.3k. The unemployment rate ticks down from 4.6% to 4.5%, but the average earnings index stays unchanged at the level of 1.8%, lower than a 2.1% reading a month ago.

The data might disappoint the interest rate hike supporters as the inflationary pressures in wages are diminishing. Slower wages growth, combined with higher inflation, is expected to weigh on UK households' purchasing power. Moreover, in the result, it means the consumption in the UK might decrease as well, so the British economy might suffer another slide down in the GDP forecasts. The broad growth trend has been downshifting according to National Institute of Economic Research (NIESR) despite the fact that the quarterly GDP has been revised to 0.3% which is slightly stronger reading than official government 0.2% figure. Nevertheless, the last year growth of 0.5% - 0.7% is nowhere to be seen.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The price has hit the technical support at the level of 1.2817 before bouncing on the better than expected data to the level of 1.2861. Currently, the price is trading back in the golden channel and the oversold market conditions are supporting the upside bias at this timeframe.


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