Trading plan for 28/06/2018

USD sustains its strength from yesterday, although the volatility on Thursday does not knock down. Another day of the weakening of the Chinese yuan reminds that fears about US-China trade relations weigh on sentiment. EUR/USD stopped the decreases before 1.1540. USD/JPY made an unsuccessful attempt to break at 110. Today in the morning GBP/USD intensified the decline to 1.3070, although for no apparent reason.

The Asian stock market is breaking by 9-month lows, and declines are fueled by fears of trade wars. Japanese Nikkei is at the level from Wednesday's closing. Chinese Shanghai Composite loses 0.4%.WTI oil rose yesterday by over 3.0% and today it only slightly adjusts to 72.4 USD. According to DoE, last week oil fell by almost 10 million barrels, which together with the demands of the White House for allies to stop importing Iranian gas, creates a hole on the supply side.

On Thursday 28th of June, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on CPI data from Germany, Consumer Confidence data for the Eurozone, GDP, and Unemployment Claims data from the US. Moreover, there are some speeches scheduled today from MPC Member Andy Haldane and FOMC Member James Bullard and Raphael W. Bostic.

NZD/USD analysis for 28/06/2018:

RBNZ has maintained the OCR rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected. The RBNZ official rate statement underlined the weakness of GDP growth and emphasized the negative impact of uncertainty on the global growth outlook. It was also written that in order to ensure stable employment and low inflation, the bank intends to keep interest rates at an expansionary level for a significant period. President Orr said that "for now" rates will remain unchanged. The dovish remarks in the statement were close to the attitude of investors that had been building since the beginning of the week.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair was stable right after the decision, but today it drops to the level of 0.6762. The price is below the key daily support at the level of 0.6780 and the bears are in full control of the market. Please notice, that the price is starting to diverge from the momentum oscillator in oversold market conditions, so there is a chance for the corrective pull-back higher soon.

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