Global macro overview for 04/12/2018

Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its decision regarding the monetary policy of the country. The interest rate remained at 1.5%, as expected. The published statement shows that low rates support the economy. Progress is visible in the falling number of unemployed. The increase in inflation should be gradual.

Over the next two years, GDP growth should oscillate around 2.5-3.5%. The real estate market has slowed down in Sydney and Melbourne. The forecast for household consumption still remains a source of uncertainty. Wage growth is low, and the level of indebtedness is high. Inflation is expected to reach 2.25% in 2019 and even go up a bit higher in the next. Wages should increase with it. The situation on the labor market remains great and continues to improve. The Australian dollar remains within the range of the remaining two years.

The global investors have not learned anything new, similar statements from the RBA has been going on for several months now. The global investors should not expect a significant change in the rhetoric until the first rate hike will take place.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the decision was made. The market is still going up and is trading above the short-term trend line support. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 0.7392, which is the recent swing high. Please notice, the market conditions are now overbought despite the strong and positive momentum. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 0.7343.

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