Forecast for EUR/USD for December 4, 2018


The first day of the week, the euro closed at the opening level, puzzled by the balance of indicators of the European and American PMI.

Business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone in November was in the final assessment of 51.8 p. (Forecast 51.5), ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US showed a sharp increase from 57.7 to 59.3. The S&P 500 stock index added 1.09%, but its energy was not enough to strengthen the dollar. Even the fall in yields on US government bonds did not affect the exchange rate. From Monday to the present, the yield on 5-year securities decreased from 2.87% to 2.97%. We are waiting for the euro to shift towards other global markets, that is, its decline.



The limiter of the single currency growth can be the balance line on the daily timeframe (1.1388). But the speculative price surge may be stronger. Yesterday, the Marlin oscillator signal line never moved to the zone of negative numbers, turning exactly from the zero line. A similar reversal occurred on the four-hour chart, and the price for H4 is now higher than the indicator lines. The price growth is possible up to the Krusenstern line on the daily chart (1.1483).

Perhaps investors are counting on a slight weakness in Friday's US employment data, which is already rumored, although the available forecasts remain good (Non-Farm 200 thousand, hourly wage growth of 0.3%).

At the moment we adhere to the main scenario of a price drop to 1.1267 and further to 1.1190.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -