Trading Plan for 11/08/2018

To be honest, the dollar should continue to lose its position, as the volume of consumer lending in the United States fell from $ 22.9 billion to $ 10.9 billion. Moreover, although European statistics showed a decline in a number of indicators, the data turned out to be better than expected. In particular, the growth rate of retail sales in Europe slowed down from 2.2% to 0.8%, and market participants were already morally ready to decline to 0.7%. Halifax also provided a report on housing prices in the UK, from which it follows that the growth rate of prices slowed down from 2.5% to 1.5% while it was expected to decline to 1.2%. Of course, the results are not the best, but against the background of a sharp decline in lending in the United States, as well as given that they turned out to be better than expected, it was worth waiting for a weaker dollar. This happens basically on most days.However, the dollar began to return lost positions. The reason behind this is the preliminary summing up of elections in the United States, which turned out to be not so terrible, if you look at it from the point of view of Donald Trump and the predictability of the actions of the American authorities. Of course, Republicans lost control of Congress, and for the first time in eight years, Democrats control most of the seats in the House of Representatives. However, the Republicans even strengthened their position in the Senate, which will act as a counterbalance to the dominance of Democrats in Congress. At the moment, not all votes have been counted, but the situation will barely change. Naturally, the Democrats will regularly spoil the life of Donald Trump and may try to initiate his impeachment, which will require the US President to make concessions, especially in foreign policy matters. And, most likely, the result will be the radicalization of the policy of the United States in the foreign arena. However, the election results show that there will be no dramatic and drastic changes in the actions of the United States. This is what gave investors optimism.


Today, investors are not in the position to count the votes in the United States of America, since all their attention will be focused on the results of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. In principle, it is clear to everyone that nobody will touch the refinancing rate, as it is scheduled in December. However, the intrigue already lies in the increasing rate of the refinancing rate next year. Fed officials have repeatedly stated that the decline in inflation is not yet a reason for revising the regulator's plans, as it is not yet possible to say that this is a long-term and sustainable one. But, if there will be at least hints on the possibility of revising the increasing rate in the refinancing rate, this will lead to an instant decrease in the interest in the dollar. There will be an increase in the published data on applications for unemployment benefits, which can show an increase in the number of repeated applications by 4 thousand and an invariance of the number of initial applications. On the contrary, few people are interested against the background of Fed meeting.

The euro / dollar currency pair, after reaching the range of 1.1500, felt resistance, returning the quotation to the level of 1.1440. It is likely to assume a temporary fluctuation of 1.1420/ 1.1455, analyzing fixation points outside the boundaries.


The currency pair pound/dollar continued its upward movement, reaching the level of 1.3173, where it felt a periodic ceiling above itself, temporarily going into a pullback. In case of price fixing higher than 1.3180, we will throw up 1.3220 / 1.3250. Otherwise, we are already in the overbought phase, where a deeper stagnation with correction is possible.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -