Once again, gossip about Brexit determined the course of events. As soon as rumors appeared that the British parliament would vote against the adoption of an agreement with the European Union, which Europe had already adopted, the pound immediately flew down. At the same time, it pulled along a single European currency. In principle, the UK's withdrawal from the European Union is beneficial to many European countries, and more specifically to their companies, since it creates additional benefits for them in the form of serious restrictions for the activities of British companies. But in this case, the possible actions of the British parliamentarians create some intrigue. After all, the current version of the agreement, namely in its economic part, is equivalent to the fact that the UK is withdrawing without any agreement. And if it is blocked in parliament, which is extremely likely, and they will even try to send Theresa May into retirement, we can expect that with such actions, they will try to put the Europeans back into the negotiating table and beat the conditions better. And it is in the economic part. So, this is exactly what contributed to the weakening of the single European currency. True, this option is unlikely, since there are many in the British Parliament who advocate a complete break with Europe, and from their point of view, it is better that there is no agreement at all.
The ruble also lost its position due to political factors. Recent statements by Donald Trump make it clear that the incident in the Kerch Strait will be the reason for the new sanctions. No one cares what happened there since the Western media created a persistent image, to which politicians have to react somehow. And given the tonality of these very images, no other choice but to toughen the sanctions, the White House just does not remain. Moreover, both the already imposed sanctions and those that can only be introduced have a serious impact on the ruble. Thus, the Bank of Russia said that the share of foreign investors now accounts for only a quarter of the total public debt, whereas at the beginning of the year, it was estimated at the half. On the one hand, this is not bad, since it reduces dependence on foreign capital and forces us to actively develop the domestic financial market. Another thing is that in one day, all this does not arise, and it takes years, and until all these wonderful things happen, the domestic economy will have difficulties in the form of a capital deficit.
Today, all attention to the American statistics, especially to data on GDP. A regular estimate of GDP for the third quarter should confirm that the rate of economic growth accelerated from 2.9% to 3.0%. Also, sales of new homes may increase by 3.7%, which is also very good. Thus, the dollar has a lot of reasons to continue its growth. So the single European currency will have to fall to 1.1275.
The pound will react not only to the American statistics, but also to the statements of politicians. It is obvious that after the appearance of rumors, journalists will simply sit down on parliamentarians with a demand to comment on this news. It can overshadow data from the United States. Given the mood, or rather the attitude of many parliamentarians towards Theresa May, this will not bring anything good. Thus, the pound will be held at 1.2725.
The dollar managed to consolidate a little higher than 67 rubles, and now everyone is waiting for the G0 summit, where the meeting of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin was to take place. Now, there is every reason to believe that because of the situation in Ukraine, this meeting will not take place. Moreover, there are fears that the new sanctions may be announced a few days ago, so there is no reason for the growth of the ruble. But even with its weakening, things are not so simple yet, since new sanctions may not be introduced, and if they are introduced, they may turn out to be insignificant. So the dollar will most likely consolidate at the level of 67.15 rubles.
