Global macro overview for 27/11/2018

The different headlines revolve further on the subject of Brexit, as the UK Prime Minister May's government votes for the ratification of the draft divorce agreement with the EU. However, the results of the calculations do not look good, because May may lose as many as 150 votes. The press reports that in the act of desperation, the head of the cabinet Prime Minister May negotiated with the opposition politicians, supporting the project implying that a better proposal would no longer be. The talks were unsuccessful and now the government is preparing a contingency plan to lose the first vote with the fewest votes so that later at the EU summit on December 13 look for cosmetic changes to the project and change the document once again before the parliament goes to the holiday break (December 20). In no way does it look like a scenario that would create conditions for the GBP to strengthen, but on the other hand, a lot of pessimism is already discounted, even with the failure of May in the first vote. While cooling the global market optimism, GBP / USD has an easier path towards slow decline, but it is a head-controlled market without excluding positive ones, even if the jumps are only momentary.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is not testing the technical support at the level of 1.2730 after a failed attempt to break through the technical resistance at the level of 1.2928. The market conditions are now oversold and the negative and weak momentum supports the bearish outlook.


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