Global macro overview for 20/02/2018

In the last 24 hours, the currency market has not shown anything new, mostly because of the holiday season in China and the USA. The US dollar continued to move higher, but it was a very slow movement: on a small scale and not comparable with the previous week's drops. The financial news feeds are busy looking for a link between a stronger dollar and an increase in the US bond yields after the market opened after the long weekend. The US bonds are approaching 2.92%, which at first glance seems to be a support for the dollar, but reporters forgot that this correlation does not work this year at all. The lack of traders from New York yesterday killed trade in the afternoon, and London itself was not much interested in playing with each other. Less-than-willing investors organized positions and made profits hoping for better entry levels later in the week. USD/JPY at 107 and EUR/USD at 1.2350 are starting to look interesting, especially since there is no sign that the market sentiment will change. Nevertheless, everyone is waiting for the first signal or a self-fulfilling prophecy (everyone will start selling suddenly).

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the the H4 time frame. The bounce from the level of 88.26 is looking solid so far, but none of the important levels has been tested yet. The nearest important technical resistance is seen at the level of 90.11, just below the old channel line. The key resistance remains at the level 90.59 and 90.98. The bouncing RSI indicator supports the short-term bullish outlook.


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