GBP/USD. July 2. GDP in the UK for the first quarter completed a series of unsuccessful macroeconomic reports.

4-hour timeframe


Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 69p - 100p - 127p - 73p - 145p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 103p (89p).

The British pound sterling followed the Euro-currency price on the last trading day of the week. The growth began at night, but continued at the American trading session. At the time of the release of British GDP for the first quarter, the British currency already increased in value. Although the indicator itself did not please traders, there was no recession. The GDP was 1.2% in annual terms, which fully met the market expectations. In quarterly terms, the growth was 0.2%, which is slightly higher than the forecast. However, this, to put it mildly, is not a reason for joy for buyers of the British pound. At the American trading session, the indicator of personal spending of the US population has already disappointed buyers of the dollar, which once again strengthened the pound.. However, at the moment all this upward movement of the pair looks like another, rather deep correction. In this regard, today's day is of great importance. If the selling of the English currency resume today, this will confirm our assumptions about the technical and corrective nature of the pair's move up in recent days. Otherwise, it will be possible to start talking about the rise of the uptrend, but, as we have repeatedly noted, there are practically no compelling reasons for the growth of the British currency. Those saving the pound sterling from new selling are countries that will impose severe sanctions against the States in response to trade duties, with which Trump is scattered left and right. For example, China. If the financial markets feel that there is an opposing force against Washington that can inflict an equally strong blow to the competitor's economy, then the belief in the dollar will begin to decline, which may become the beginning of the fall of the US currency in the medium term.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair was fixed above the Kijun-sen line. Thus, as long as the price remains above this line, longs are used for small lots with a target of 1.3248.

It is recommended to open sell orders if the price is fixed below the Kijun-sen line, which is likely to mean a resumption of the downtrend with a target of 1.3114, which takes into account the average volatility of the instrument.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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