The weekend did not bring any significant macroeconomic or political information that could detach traders from following Football World Championship in Russia. However, there is a slight nervousness in the markets, although mainly as a result of an exchange of blows by the US and China in the field of new import duties.
Friday's decision of the Donald Trump administration to impose import duties on more than 1000 goods from China worth USD 50 billion has become the basis for the vacuuming of worries about trade wars. It was not half an hour, and China replied with a list of products from the USA, on which they would impose customs duties of similar destructive power. The markets are not yet in full-scale panic mode, because somewhere on the side there is a smoldering hope that all this is part of Trump's twisted negotiation policy, from which nothing harmful to global growth will emerge. Despite this, the issue of trade wars does not improve the investment climate, hence the nervousness in the stock markets and the likely pressure on risky currencies.
This week's unplanned reports from news sites may be more important than macro releases. The central bankers' symposium, taking place in Sintra in Portugal, should be in the center of attention for traders. The conference tonight (06:30 pm GMT) opens the ECB president Mario Draghi, who tomorrow has at 08:00 am GMT his panel of questions as well. Can Draghi mix more into EUR than what he did on Thursday? I would say no, but before the Thursday decision, markets did not count on fireworks either. Today, the comments of Fed members Williams and Bostic may also be interesting if it sheds more light on the pace of interest rate increases. Next week, the RBA (on Tuesday) and BoJ (on Wednesday) minutes should go unnoticed, but a disappointing GDP from New Zealand (on Thursday) would intensify investors' germinating reluctance to commodity currencies. On Thursday, we have the decision of SNB, Norges Bank and the Bank of England and the SNB decision should be closely monitored for all CHF traders. The Bank of England decision is important as well, but there should not be any change in policy.
Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe before BoE interest rate decision. The key zone to the upside is still seen between the levels of 1.3292 - 1.3307 and only a sustained violation of this zone would open the road towards the level of 1.3340 - 1.3350. Nevertheless, the momentum is still weak as the RSI remains below its fifty level so the odds for a test of the level of 1.3210 are still high.
