Wave analysis of GBP/USD for September 2. UK will have to pay out of pocket for Brexit


The wave counting for the GBP/USD pair still looks quite convincing at this time and does not require any additions and adjustments yet. The assumed wave b turned out to be too deep, but it still does not violate the wave counting since it did not go beyond the low of wave a. The exit of quotes from the lows reached during the last week indicates that wave b may be completed and the construction of wave c has begun, which can be either the third of the five waves in the current section, or the last. Thus, the markets still have the opportunity to build an upward section of the trend. This option remains the main one at the moment. A successful attempt to break through the lows of the last waves b and e will indicate that the markets are not ready for further purchases of the pound sterling and will require adjustments to the current wave count. But until this happens, I continue to expect an increase in the quotes of the instrument in the direction of the peak of wave a, which is located near the 1.3981 mark.

The pound/dollar instrument increased by 70 basis points on Thursday. All the economic reports were extremely weak, which the markets ignored. Despite this, trading was still active. The construction of an upward wave is still ongoing and now all the attention of the markets is on the Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will be released on Friday. And also for other reports of the day, among which the PMI data in the euro area. In the meantime, the markets are paying attention to current reports about a shortage of truck drivers in the UK, which leads to disruptions in supply chains and, as a result, a shortage of goods and rising prices. The British Retail Consortium said that the country's government should step in and solve this problem, otherwise consumers will pay for it.

When Brexit officially ended, the rules for entering the territory of Britain, as well as the rules for obtaining work visas, changed. Because of this, many drivers were unable to obtain a work permit in the UK, and local drivers complain that they cannot pass regular testing for the renewal of their driver's license because of school closure due to the coronavirus pandemic. The executive director of the consortium, Helen Dickinson, called on the government to allow migrants from the European Union to obtain temporary visas, as well as to increase the number of re-certifications for truck drivers. Without this, the shortage of some goods will continue to be observed in the countries of the United Kingdom. Dickinson also warns that in the run-up to Christmas, British consumers may face an unreasonably large price increase and an even greater deficit for a number of goods.

The wave pattern is now more or less clear. I still expect the formation of an upward wave, so at this time, I suggest considering buying the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.4000 mark (the first target). The instrument has presumably completed the construction of the downward wave b and is ready to increase.


The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form, its first wave has acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes are growing. If the news background does not interfere, then the increase in quotes should continue in the near future.

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