Wave analysis of EUR/USD for September 2. Markets brace for Nonfarm Payrolls report


The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. The instrument still passes no more than 50 points per day and moves only in one direction. Over the past ten days, it has already gained about 200 basis points, which gives very good reasons to assume the completion of the construction of a downward trend section. Its internal wave counting looks quite convincing. The wave counting of the proposed wave e also looks very convincing. Thus, in my opinion, the construction of a new upward section of the trend has begun, which may also turn out to be corrective. So far, we are talking about building a three-wave section of the trend. If this assumption is correct, then the first wave may turn out to be very long. And the final target will lie near the maximum of the previous upward section of the trend, that is, around the mark of 1.2266. I am not considering the option with the complication of the downward set of waves yet.

The news background for the euro/dollar pair was very weak on Thursday. The producer price index in the euro area was released, which increased by 2.3% MoM at the end of July. In America, the report on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits was released, which totaled 340,000, while the number of continuing applications amounted to 2.75 million. The markets were counting on higher values, but the dollar did not experience any positive effect after these data. Also, the report on the US trade deficit for July was released, which amounted to $70.1 billion (slightly better than expected, but still a huge deficit), and a change in the level of labor costs (+1.3%).

In general, all the reports of the day were extremely weak to affect the mood of the markets. Thus, the amplitude of the instrument during the day equal to 20 points perfectly reflects the level of attention of the markets that was paid to all of the above reports. If so, then there is nothing else to do but wait for the nonfarm payrolls report, which will be released on Friday. And also, the release of the PMI data on the euro area, and the ISM index for the service sector in the US, which are also considered quite important reports. In addition, the unemployment rate in America, which promises to fall to 5.2%, and the change in the average hourly wage. Thus, tomorrow promises to be much more active than today.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward section could have ended around the level of 1.1704, which is equal to 100.0% according to Fibonacci. So now I'm still waiting for the construction of an upward set of waves. There are no signs of resuming and complicating the construction of a downward trend section right now, so I recommend buying the pair with targets located near the 1.1917 mark, which corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "up".


The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section.

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