GBP/USD. UK after Brexit: waiting for collapse?


The UK will officially leave the European Union in five days. More precisely, the so-called "transition period" will begin, with which many identify the beginning of the real Brexit. Over the next 11 months, little will change for Great Britain. The country will cease to take part in the decision-making of the European Union, the British deputies will leave the European Parliament, however, the established trade relations and other rules and regulations by which the UK has lived in recent years will remain in force. Now, a month and a half after Boris Johnson's victory in the election, when passions and euphoria subsided, many experts conclude that the victory of the Conservatives is a result of the fragmentation of the political views of the opponents of Brexit, and not the excessive popularity of Conservatives among the people. In other words, there was only one option with the end of Brexit - vote for the Conservatives, and there were much more options against Brexit. At the same time, both the Scots, the Northern Irish, and the Welsh, supporting Brexit, had to vote not for "their" parties, but all for those Conservatives. For those who reject Brexit, they voted for the Scottish National Party, for the Labour Party, and for other political forces. As a result, all the voices of the opponents of Brexit were divided into 3-4 parties, all the voices of the supporters of Brexit left the party of Boris Johnson. However, now all this is not important. It's important - what the odious prime minister and his ruling party will lead the country to.

In fact, in the coming year, all questions to Johnson's team come down to whether he will be able to agree with the U on a new trade deal that will operate after the end of the transition period? According to many experts, the main thing that is required of Johnson is to sign such a deal that does not harm the UK economy as much as possible, which has been losing huge amounts over the past three years due to Brexit and, in any case, will continue to lose them in 2020. Nobody believes that the deal will be the way Johnson himself sees it. Johnson is not Trump, but the European Union is not China. The biggest question that causes skepticism among all market participants is the timing of negotiations on trade relations with the EU. Eleven months is very little to conclude such a comprehensive deal. Thus, either Johnson will be able to conclude a "surface" agreement in a short time, or he will have to extend the transition period for two years (which Johnson does not want) and conduct more meaningful negotiations, without forcing events and slowly.

Well, the biggest danger for London now comes from Edinburgh. Nicola Sturgeon, the first Minister of Scotland, has repeatedly stated that "London will not be able to lock us up and hope that everything will work out." Scotland opposes an exit from the EU, but advocates an exit from the UK if its interests are not taken into account by the government of Johnson. "If the UK continues to exist, it is only on the basis of universal consent," said Sturgeon. A formal request for a second independence referendum has already been sent to Johnson and has been rejected. However, it is unlikely that Edinburgh will so simply dwell on the refusal of permission to referendum. In the best case for Britain, the Scots will regularly put this issue on the agenda. At worst, separatism, refusal to subordinate to London, and unauthorized referendum are possible. I don't even want to think about what awaits Britain in the second case. Riots, a military conflict and a host of other "unpleasant things" are possible. Thus, all those who, following Johnson's victory in the elections, exhaled and considered that all the troubles are now behind, all that can be said is that all the troubles are still ahead, and Brexit now looks like the smallest of the problems of Great Britain.

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