Forecast for EUR/USD on May 1, 2019


On Tuesday, European economic indicators surprised and came out better than expected; the GDP of the euro area for the 1st quarter showed an increase of 0.4% against the expected 0.3%, the unemployment rate in March fell from 7.8% to 7.7% while the indicator was unchanged. The best part of the GDP structure is the growth of the Italian index by 0.2% against the expectation of -0.1% and the revision of GDP for the previous period from -0.2% to -0.1%. Italy is "saved" from recession. We believe that the data may be overstated, perhaps there will still be a downward revision, but now the political situation prevents the publication of reliable information.

Today, the FOMC Fed decides on monetary policy, advocates the head of the Central Bank Jerome Powell. The main topic of the speech is expected to be the independence of the regulator from the external pressure of the presidential administration. Of course, in allegorical language, for example, in the absence of reasons for the rate cut in the current year. Even if the Fed is not against lowering the rate in order to reduce the cost of servicing the public debt, it can be said later. The game on both sides is quite within the bounds of decency.


Yesterday, the euro growth was stopped on the MACD line and the daily scale balance line. The line of the Marlin oscillator has reached the border with the territory of growth and can turn down from it. We are waiting for the return of the euro to 1.1155 and a further decline to 1.1075.

The continuation of growth is possible. The price needs to gain a foothold above yesterday's high, then aggressive players can take an increase to the resistance of the embedded price channel line in the area of 1.1287.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -