4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 78p - 19p - 27p - 69p - 84p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 55p (48p).
As we expected in the morning review, macroeconomic events have little effect on the currency pair. For example, today, the US dollar continued to rise in price against the European currency since the morning, although there were no fundamental reasons for this. There were no fundamental reasons but there were technical ones. The main one is to overcome the level of 1,1200, which opens the way down to the pair. The reports on durable goods orders for March were released during the US trading session. Excluding transportation, and subject to, and without regard to defense, and excluding defense and aircraft, all indicators have exceeded forecast values. Thus, the dollar receives additional fundamental support and can continue to strengthen against the euro. From a technical point of view, everything is very simple now: the pair continues its downward movement without any signs of an upward correction. The upward turn of the MACD indicator may signal an upward correction reversal, but with its indications now you need to be careful, since it could begin to discharge while it is at its lowest values. On the last trading day of the week, that is, tomorrow, a correction for the pair may begin, since this week's losses for the euro are quite large. Tomorrow, the preliminary value of US GDP will be published and it is expected that it will slightly decline compared to the previous period. This report may be the basis for the reduction of short positions on the pair.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD continues a downward movement with targets of 1,1107 and 1,1084. The upward turn of the MACD indicator can be interpreted as a beginning of the correction, but the price should also rise.
It is recommended to consider purchase orders in small lots for a goal of the Senkou span B line not earlier than when the price is consolidated above the critical line. In this case, the initiative will go into the hands of bulls for some time.
In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen - the red line.
Kijun-sen - the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD Indicator:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com