For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a high volatility of 176 points. As a result, it fulfilled the previously set forecast as an upward trend. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a pulsed upward move, overcoming the way of a number of levels at 1.2920, as well as a psychological value of 1.3000. On the other hand, Informational and news background had statistics in itself from the UK on the labor market, where, in principle, we did not see anything. The unemployment rate remained the same, which was 4.0%, , as well as the level of wages excluding bonuses which was 3.4%. So what influenced such a rapid growth? We begin by saying that growth wa expected in terms of market. The impetus may have been the statement of the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker: : "Any decision to ask for more time lies with the UK. If such a request is made, no one in Europe will be against it. If you ask how long you can postpone the exit, I have no time frame, "Juncker stated.
Today, two news are in the spotlight. The first, of course, is the publication of the FOMC protocol, where market participants are waiting for hints about whether the Fed will stop reducing its balance sheet. Then, we have another meeting between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels, where the British Prime Minister will again urge the head of the European Commission to make concessions, but I think the next round will again end in nothing.
20:30 Moscow time - Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker meeting in Brussels
22:00 MSK - Publication of FOMC protocols
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote managed to reach the value of 1.3076. After which, we saw a logical stagnation with the start of the rollback. It is likely to assume that at this stage, the pullback may continue. There is still overheating after the impulse, but the bullish potential has not yet been exhausted, and further growth is still possible if the FOMC protocol disrupts market participants.
Based on the available data, it is possible to expand a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- Positions to buy - the previously set forecasts in the previous review coincided by all 200%. The quotation managed to go even further than planned. We do not have positions now; a possible next run can be in two scenarios: : First, after the breakdown of the current local maximum, 1.3076; The second - after a rollback to 1.3000, where in the case of a slowdown and a refinement from the level of 1.3000, attractive long positions may appear.
- Positions to sell: We consider selling in the case of price fixing lower than 1.3035, with a prospect of 1.3000 (the first point).
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of time frames ( TF), we see that there is a variable downward interest against the background of a slowdown and an expected pullback in the short term. While the intraday and the medium term focus on the upstream.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 20 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 31 points. Today, there is a wide informational and news background, and thus, volatility is provided to us.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.3200 * 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com