For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar displayed a quite low volatility of 76 points, while the correction phase came. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the correction phase started earlier than expected. The price was enough to reach the value of 1.2832, the mid-January congestion, in order to take a corrective move against the background of overheating. On the other hand, information and news background has a number of speeches of high-ranking officials. To start off, Bank of England CEO Mark Carney, stated: "We should not have illusions - Brexit without a deal would be a shock to the economy of this country and would send a signal to the whole world about the prospects of launching globalization under new conditions. There is a risk that countries will lock themselves within themselves, and this will lead to a reduction in growth rates and welfare for all. " As you understand, such statements from that kind of person would shock investors. Next comes the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who did not even say a word about the regulator's plans regarding the interest rate, thereby giving ground for driving moments and weakening the dollar.
Today, from the point of view of the economic calendar, the day is intense just as much. There is a large package of statistics from the United Kingdom and the United States regarding inflation.
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) (Jan): Prev. 2.2% ---> Forecast 1.9%
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - House Price Index (YoY): Prev. 2.8% ---> Forecast 2.6%
US 16:30 Moscow time - Basic Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y / y) (Jan): Prev. 2.2% ---> Forecast 2.1%
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see how the quote corrected in the direction of the previously passed level of 1.2920, where it temporarily felt resistance. Truthfully speaking, there is nothing good either in Britain or in the USA, but since there is some oversold, I do not rule out further growth, only if the quote manages to fix above 1.2920. Otherwise, a side amplitude oscillation of 1.2830 / 1.2920 is possible.
Based on the available data, it is possible to breakdown a number of variations. Let us consider them:
- Positions for buying are considered only after a clear price fixation above the level of 1.2920, with preservation of bullish interest.
- Positions for sale are considered only after a clear price fixing below 1.2830.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a downward interest against the general background of the market in the short, intraday and medium term.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 13 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 35 points. If the level of 1.2920 will fall, then the volatility may increase.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2920 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700.
Support areas: 1.2850 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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