Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for February 14, 2019

Recently, the eurozone presented a series of reports which prove an economic slowdown. Such data is certainly bearish for EUR. Meanwhile AUD is taking advantage of EUR weakness. AUD found support from the latest economic upbeat reports.

Recently ECB President Mario Draghi stated that the European regulator would welcome a common budget for all 19 countries in the Eurozone if it can ensure macroeconomic stabilization functions. According to Draghi, a common budget would increase economic resilience of the individual participating members that will relax a conflict of interests inside the euro area, thus providing price stability. Today German Prelim GDP report was published with an increase to 0.0% from the previous value of -0.2%, failing to meet the expectation of a gain to 0.1% and German WPI also failed to meet the expectation of an increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -1.2% which came in at -0.7%. Ahead of Flash GDP and Flash Employment Change reports to be published today which are both expected to be unchanged at 0.2%, EUR is set to extend its weakness.

On the other hand, China is Australia's largest trading partner with over 30% of the Australian exports going to China. Trade tensions have fueled an economic slowdown in Australia. Besides, China's GDP eased to 6.5% in Q4 2018 which is the weakest quarterly GDP growth in the latest 10 years. AUD is sensitive to any downbeat data from China. Nevertheless, AUD perked up amid robust China's exports and better-than-expected trade balance surplus. Moreover, MI Inflation Expectation also increased to 3.7% from the previous value of 3.5%. Recently Westpac Consumer Sentiment showed significant growth to 4.3% from the previous value of -4.7%. Tomorrow RBA Governor Kent is going to speak about the key interest rate decisions. He is expected to confirm the same rhetoric on monetary policy. Low interest rates are still needed for the domestic economy in the context of global trade tensions.

Meanwhile, AUD is expected gain further momentum against EUR. EUR is doomed to lose more ground versus AUD.

Now let us look at the technical view. The pair is currently trading below 1.5900 area with a daily close which is still pushing lower quite impulsively. After certain correction and volatility at the edge of 1.60, the bearish pressure will resume pushing the price lower towards 1.5500 and later towards 1.5350 support area in the coming days.

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