Trading plan for 02/14/2019

None of the predictions came true yesterday, as the actual data came out completely different from what was expected, and market participants had to revise their investment plans right on the knee. Thus, inflation in the UK decreased, not to 1.9%, but to 1.8%. In the previous month, it was 2.1%. Thus, it became clear to all that in the near future, the Bank of England would begin preparing the public to lower the refinancing rate, as Mark Carney had previously warned. After all, the condition for easing monetary policy is precisely the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation, and the slowdown in inflation only complemented the stronger decline in the economic growth of the United Kingdom. Then, data on industrial production in Europe came out, and for a second, they could even please investors, as the depth of the decline in the previous month was revised from -3.3% to -3.0%. So last month the picture was not as scary as expected. However, new data killed all hope, as the recession has intensified and now the European industry is showing a "growth" of -4.2%. Thus, the reality turned out to be even worse than expected, although they did not expect the best results. Inflation in the United States fell from 1.9% to 1.6%. They were waiting for it to drop to 1.5%. Given that inflation data is extremely important, they were prepared for it in advance, that is, investors long before the data were published, the dollar cost was impacted by a stronger slowdown in price growth. The actual data turned out to be better than predicted, which means there is a reason for optimism.

Today in Europe, there is only the second estimate of GDP growth for the fourth quarter of last year, which should confirm the slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.2%. Given that the slowdown in economic growth is already taken into account by the market after the first assessment, there will be no such effect. The American statistics, most likely, will again delay the long-awaited correction. On the one hand, the growth rate of producer prices should slow down from 2.5% to 2.1%, which indicates the potential for further reduction of inflation. However, yesterday's inflation data suggests that the slowdown in producer price growth will not be as strong as expected. But what is more important is the growth rate of retail sales, which can accelerate from 4.2% to 4.5%, and this will make everyone forget about the slowdown in inflation. Also, the total number of applications for benefits should be reduced by 5 thousand. Of course, the number of repeated applications may increase by 4 thousand, but the number of primary ones is likely to decrease by 9 thousand.

The Euro / Dollar currency pair has once again returned to the limits of the range level of 1.1270 / 1.1300, where it slowed down and formed a pullback. It is likely to assume that a temporary fluctuation within the limits of the level will remain in the form of a brief stagnation. In the case of price fixing lower than 1.1250, we can go further down to the mark of 1.1200.

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The currency pair Pound / Dollar again rolled back to the local imaginary February 12 (1.2830), where it felt a foothold. Probably suggest a temporary fluctuation in the range of 1.2830 / 1.2880, expressed in stagnation.

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