The Euro / Dollar currency pair for the past trading showed extremely low volatility of 36 points, as a result forming a temporary accumulation within the level of 1.1440. From the point of view of technical analysis, we had a temporary congestion near the level of 1.1440, where, after a brief bump, the breakdown phase followed, followed by the Breakdown - Rollback model. The news and news background did not have any sharp statistics in itself for the last day, where the dollar was actually weak against the background, but continued to strengthen. Brexit's theme continues to evolve in complete uncertainty; British Prime Minister Theresa May has already managed to respond to earlier remarks from Europe. Brexit's chief negotiator for the EU, Michelle Barnier, said: "We are of the same opinion that the issue of a British exit from the EU cannot be opened again.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar , we are waiting for data on business activity in the services sector of the eurozone, where they do not expect something cardinal. In the afternoon, there will be a package of statistics from the United States.
EU 12:00 MSK - Markit Composite Business Activity Index (PMI) (Jan.): Prev 50.7% ---> Forecast 50.7%
EU 13:00 MSK - Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec.): Prev. 1.1%
US 17:45, Moscow - Business PMI (Services PMI) (Jan.): Prev. 54.2 ---> Forecast 54.2
USA 18:00 MSK - Non-Manufacturing PMI from ISM (Jan.): Prev 58.0 ---> Forecast 57.0
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we can see how the previously formed Breakdown - Rollback model has moved into the execution phase, reflecting the pulse from us in the form of gain from level. It is likely to assume that the downward move will still remain with the primary point 1.1400, where there is a small congestion.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Buy positions are considered in several ways : first, in case of loss of bearish interest and return of quotes higher than 1.1440; The second is already in the case of a deceleration within the value of 1.1400 - 1.1350
- Traders considered selling positions in case of price fixing lower than 1.1440, which actually happened. Now we see a move where traders are focused on values of 1.1400-1.1350.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector , we see that in the short and intraday perspective there is a downward interest, against the background of further descent. In the medium term, upward interest remains.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 5 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 27 points. In the case of conservation of the energy movement, volatility can increase.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1350 *; 1,1300 **; 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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