Overview of the foreign exchange market on January 11, 2019

As expected, the content of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank did not give a definite answer to the question about the timing of the increase in the refinancing rate. The office of Mario Draghi only once again confirmed its intentions to begin to consider this issue, and not earlier than the end of the autumn of the current year. We can say that this has somewhat disappointed investors, which is reflected in the strengthening of the dollar. Although not much. However, the significance of the text of the protocol is so great that the market did not even pay attention to the data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, the total number of which decreased by 45 thousand, which is quite significant. Thus, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 17 thousand and repeated by another 28 thousand

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Today, data on inflation in the United States is published, and it is predicted that it will remain unchanged. Nevertheless, the stability of inflation kills even hints of the possibility of a more active tightening of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System. Thus, if the data coincide with the forecasts, it will become obvious to everyone that for the time being it is necessary to proceed from the current scenario, which implies two increases in the refinancing rate in the current year. This, of course, increases the attractiveness of the single European currency, but not by much, and the euro will trade at a mark of 1.1550.

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With the pound, everything is somewhat more interesting, since today a number of interesting data is released in the UK. In particular, industrial production, which has so far demonstrated a steady decline of 0.8%, can slightly please market participants with an improvement in the situation and show a decline of only 0.7%. And this is all in annual terms. But it is clear that this is all just because of Brexit. Well, or so explain it. Also today, there are preliminary data on GDP for the fourth quarter, which should show that the United Kingdom maintains the current rates of economic growth, and this will not affect the market. Thus, due to the symbolic, but improving the situation in the industry, the pound will be able to improve its position and rise to 1.12800.

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For the ruble, the situation will develop similarly, and against the background of a moderate market reaction to inflation in the United States, it will be able to strengthen its position. However, it is extremely modest and, most likely, not for long. Oil, which has a rather weak effect on the ruble, in such a situation will act as a guide. Well, you need to rely on something. And given its continued growth, it will also have a positive effect on the ruble. Consequently, it is worth waiting for a gradual decline in the dollar to 66.25 rubles.

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