Global macro overview for 17/11/2018

The global concerns do not stop, which holds back risky assets from profits. Fears of slowing down, deadlock in Brexit negotiations, the return of the central bank's dovish tone, war on commercial (and other) arguments between the US and China. The last regular week before the holiday break is packed with important macro events, which, however, collide with the dries of fluidity and jerky reactions.

The vocation of the profession can be heard from various corners of financial markets because negative signals are not heard. On Friday, PMI Euroland indexes were fatal - Composite index (aggregating industry and service results) at 51.3 was the weakest in four years and well below even the most pessimistic market forecasts. And although part of the disappointment can be dumped on one-off events (eg protests in France), even after the clean-up, the data indicate a slowdown in the recovery. If someone was surprised by the tone of President Draghi at the Thursday press conference, he got an explanation in Friday's data. The eurozone is in trouble, in the case of China, it is debated whether they are already in recession, but the authorities in Beijing "beautify" the data. The US remains a bridgehead of solid economic growth, but there is no shortage of speculation when the protective barrier breaks. The Wall Street indexes already reflect these doubts, although retail sales data show that consumers are a powerful force. However, this is only one fact in the thick of pessimistic expectations and visions of the future. The chances of an imminent change of sentiment are slim when everyone is more focused on counting down to holidays than setting a strategy for a long time.

Let's now take a look at the DAX technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is clearly trading below the technical resistance at the level of 11,000 and it looks like the bears will try to push the prices even lower towards the level of 10.548 again, even despite the oversold market conditions. Only a sustained breakout above the 11,065 level would open the road towards the level of 11.326 in order to fill the gap.

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