Global macro overview for 17/12/2018

The main event of the week is the final Fed meeting this year (Tue-Sun) and the market is generally expecting another rate hike. Greater interest will be given to the language of the communication, as in recent weeks members of the committee have suggested a change in attitude, a move away from mechanical foot lifting once a quarter, and they have begun to pay more attention to national and global data. This change scared off some investors, as a result of which the market started to value the chances for less than one increase next year. These expectations seem overly pessimistic (we assume at least two increases in 2019) and from this point of view, the change in the Fed language may not be as harmful to the USD as it is currently discounted.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is testing the dashed black short-term trendline resistance around the level of 1.1355 as the momentum is just slightly above its fifty level. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1402, but this is still not a game-changing breakout higher. In the long term, the market is stuck inside of the horizontal consolidation between the levels of 1.1266 - 1.1450.


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