Global macro overview for 11/07/2018

It may be a very interesting evening in Canada, where the overnight rate increase by 25 bps to 1.50% it is widely expected, but also almost entirely discounted. In a speech last week, the president of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz sounded optimistic, expressing satisfaction with the general state of the economy, while downplaying one-time "jumps" in monthly data. In the latter, it seemed to refer to the disappointing reading of retail sales in May, while the good condition of the economy was confirmed by the higher than expected GDP reading for April. Moreover, the quarterly central bank survey among enterprises indicated an increase in the general sentiment indicator to the highest level since 2011. The survey also showed an increase in inflation expectations and tensions in the labor market due to a shortage of employees. What can go wrong? Business surveys were conducted before the US announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Hence, the hike may be framed with a cautious message emphasizing fears about the effects of global trade conflicts. With the current investment climate, it is real that the greater risk lies in "selling facts" and realizing profits from the last wave of CAD appreciation.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the important techncial support at the level of 1.3066 and now the bulls have managed to retrace almost 38% of the previous swing down. The key retracement is seen at the level of 1.3263, just above the key technical resistance at the level of 1.23260, so if the bulls want to regain the control over the market, they must break through this zone. Otherwise, the temporary down pull-back will continue towards the level of 1.2834.

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