Trade plan 04/09/2018

Trade plan 09/04/2018

The general picture: The focus is on politics.

On a new week with few important news, there is a formally interesting "minutes" of the Fed on Wednesday. Yet, the Fed's policy is fairly transparent that gradually slowly raise the rate, it is likely to increase by + 0.25% in June. In general, without sensations.

Rather, many news last week confused the markets.

In the new week, new pieces of news on the trade war started by Trump against China are likely.

I do not think that this crisis will be resolved easily. First, the US demands are too great. If China yields too little, this will be a loss of face for Trump. Too much is a loss of face for China.

Secondly, the reason for Trump's attack in what? China unveiled the recently ambitious program "Made in China 2030" - which says that China will become the world's 2030 leader in the production of high-tech products by 2030. This is a clear glove thrown at the US (well, Germany and Japan, of course). Given the huge US deficit in trade with China and Trump China's accusation of theft of intellectual property (technology), it turns out that the U.S. must also finance its own collapse as a leader.

Therefore, I do not think that the history of the trade war will end easily. The novel of the USA to China, that lasted for 40 years since 1978, seems close to the end.

For GBP / USD pair:

We are waiting for growth.

We buy from 1.4100 but in case of a strong decline, we buy from 1.3700.

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