Global macro overview for 17/04/2018

The last 24 hours did not bring the continuation of geopolitical tensions regarding weekend rocket attacks on Syria, so for markets, it meant a green light to return to optimistic trade. In the meantime, the Twitter account of US President Donald Trump did not remain silent. Trump dismissed the news that Russia and China are "playing a course devaluation" at a time when the US is raising interest rates and is "unacceptable". The consternation was not due to concerns about the new distribution of trade/currency wars, but from the fact that the content of the tweet is meaningless. First, since Trump's inauguration in January 2017, the Russian ruble and the Chinese yuan have been gaining against the dollar, so if Moscow and Beijing are involved in artificially lowering the value of their currency, they are doing it wrong. Secondly, what could have caught Trump's attention was the severe weakening of the ruble last week, which, however, would not have happened if the US did not announce fresh sanctions against Russian companies, which triggered the avalanche capital flight from the Russian stock exchange. Thirdly, Trump contradicts his own Department of the Treasury, who in a report published on Friday stated that none of US trading partners is manipulating their rate. Finally, after Thursday, it is completely pointless to accuse that Russia and China are using the fact that the Fed raises interest rates. Presumably, President Trump's advisers have somewhat escaped that monetary tightening is possible thanks to expansive fiscal policy. It is appealing that investors are able to filter out the populism from Trump's twitter message, and yesterday's lack of reaction is a good proof.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to make another higher high at the level of 268.16, but the gap zone between the levels of 268.89 - 270.30 still hasn't been filled yet. Moreover, the overall move upward looks more like a rising wedge pattern, which should terminate soon. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 266.81 and 264.95.


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