Global macro overview for 17/04/2018

The dynamics of wages and salaries excluding bonuses in the UK accelerated to 2.8% y/y in February from 2.6% in January. The increase in total remuneration remained at 2.8%, although it was expected to accelerate to 3.0%. Nevertheless, for the first time since January 2017, the growth rate of the basic wage is higher than the inflation rate. The decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.2% also has a positive effect (the estimated number was 4.3%). Generally, the data is solid and allows BoE to raise interest rates, although from the perspective of today's market may not meet the high expectations of investors.

On the other hand, the ZEW Institute survey among German analysts and economists shows that in April the current assessment of the economy as well as the expectations for the future deteriorated. The current rating index fell to 87.9 from 90.7 at the threshold. 88. The indicator of future expectations fell to -8.2 from 5.1 by consensus of -1.0. The data are in line with the latest Eurozone publications suggesting entering into the period of abandoning a solid expansion pace at the turn of the year.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture at the H4 time frame. The macro environment is still not supported for the EUR and after reading EUR/GBP continues the slide below the level of 0.8648, erasing the morning gains. The next support is seen at the level of 0.8530, but the bears have entered the oversold market conditions zone, so the slide might be limited. The key technical level to the upside is seen at the level of 0.8808.

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