Global macro overview for 03/04/2018

Sources in the White House say that a preliminary agreement on the new shape of the NAFTA agreement may be published already during the Summit of the Americas scheduled for next week, which will start on April 13 in Peru. White House spokeswoman Natalie Strom said that the negotiation process is going quite quickly and the NAFTA countries will be ready on time. In turn, trade advisor Peter Navarro, when asked about the reasons for such a rush, cited the argument related to the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Mexico (July). Nevertheless, President Trump on Twitter again criticized the issue of excessive immigration of Mexicans to the US.

The most difficult issues in the NAFTA talks with Mexico and Canada concern US demands on automotive trade and dispute settlement systems. Linking the future of the 24-year-old trade deal to Trump's border wall plan has never been among US negotiating objectives.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame before the agreement will take place. The market has dropped below the level of 63.71 and made a local low at the level of 62.80 before bouncing a little in order to test the 63.71 resistance. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 62.53 - 62.43 area and breakout below this level will open the road towards the level of 59.93.

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