Rapidly changing moods and increased volatility are becoming a permanent market element recently. The US Dollar is not able to become their strong and unambiguous beneficiary due to the White House policy, fears of a return of a strong double deficit and fear of trade wars. In the coming months, analysts expect a maintaining of the current range of fluctuations by the EUR/USD pair. The enthusiasm for the euro is dampened primarily by the weakening of inflationary trends in the euro area and the likely achievement of the peak by the strength of economic growth in 2018. The space for appreciation is also limited by the extremely extended long speculative position. At the same time, it should be quite immune to adjustments due to the ECB's tightening outlook.
Next days are primarily waiting for a report from the US labor market, which may help revive hopes for a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy. Nevertheless, the anticipated three interest rate hikes this year how much more chances to materialize, then a sudden abandon of the current monetary path by FED.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market failed to rally higher above the level of 1.2345 and currently is testing the short-term technical support at the level of 1.2282. Any violation of this level would lead to the drop towards the next technical support at the level of 1.2238 or even 1.2163, which is the key technical support for this market.
